The Truth Hurts

Dangerous Thinking By Conservatives

2006-01-26T09:04:00.000-05:00

There seems to be a consensus developing among Conservatives that they have almost a guaranteed year in office. Even more, there seems to be more and more saying that they can pass almost whatever they want in the first 100 days. There are two premises this is based upon. The first is that none of the opposition parties want an election, primarily because the public does not want an election. Although there is some truth to that, they should keep in mind that the public did not want the election we just had but still elected the Conservatives to government. The second premise is that with the Liberals heading into a leadership race they would not dare to bring down the Conservative government. And without the Liberals the Bloc and NDP are incapable of defeating the government. I would not put too much faith in that if I were the Conservatives. It is ironic that on both of these premises Joe Clark would be Harper's best advisor. Pierre Trudeau's resignation did not prevent the Liberals from defeating Clark's government. In our current situation, I do not believe it would be Paul Martin who would come back to fight. Instead, here is how I think things could develop. If the Conservatives brought in legislation that the Liberals thought they could win an election on they could defeat and bring down the government and then bring in someone like Frank McKenna to serve as leader and fight the election. There certainly are party rules, and I do not believe any of the rules allow for this. However, most people do not realize that the various political parties technically have no authority over their party's caucus in parliament. The leader of the Liberal party is the person the caucus recognizes - period. Originally, and for quite some time, it was the caucus that elected the leader. So if they appointed Frank McKenna he would be recognized by parliament as the Liberal leader. If he won the election he could then go through a leadership race, one in which I am sure he would be appointed. If he lost the election he could still go through a leadership race, but I am sure he would be challenged in such a case.

Do I think this will happen? Only if the Conservatives become arrogant enough to think they can act like they have a majority.

Beginning of the End for the Bloc

2006-01-25T08:54:00.000-05:00

I would hope that since the Bloc fell short of expectations many Quebecers are rethinking the very existence of the Bloc. Let us presuppose for a moment that Quebec has concerns with federalism that are legitimate enough to justify separation. Why then do they elect separatists to Ottawa? Separatists have no desire to fix federalism. Quebecers have three main parties to choose from that cover most of the Canadian political spectrum: Liberals, Conservatives, NDP. They may find that none of those parties really reflect the views of Quebec. However, ask Albertans the same question. The policies of the Conservative party have been modified a great deal and in a direction that many Albertans would not agree with. But political parties in Canada must accomodate a wide range of views.

I fully recognize Quebecers right to vote for the Bloc. However, if the Bloc win a majority of seats next time then I will no longer take seriously Quebec's concerns with federalism because electing the Bloc demonstrates that they do not seriously want these concerns addressed.

How the Forecasters Stack Up

2006-01-24T10:50:00.000-05:00

So here are the results and how various forecasts matched them. As you can see, The Truth Hurts did very well compared to other national forecasts. If you are aware of any other forecast sites I am more than prepared to add them to this comparison chart. If I find the time I will do the same comparisons at the subnational level.

I found through the election that my model's weakness, though it was not that bad, was with smaller parties. The final results reflect that as well as no other predictor had a lower error rate for the two largest parties combined and only The Truth Hurts predicted one of those two parties exactly. There is also some irony that the forecast with the absolutely worst results was from a professional polling firm. All of the others were reasonably close to one another.

	*CANADA*
	LIBERAL	CONSERVATIVE	BLOC	NDP	GREEN	OTHER
	103	124	51	29	0	1	Actual
TOTAL WRONG	99	124	60	25	0	0	The Truth Hurts
18	4	0	9	4	0	1	Difference
	104	118	56	29	0	1	Election Prediction
12	1	6	5	0	0	0	Difference
	94	128	56	29	0	1	Democratic Space
18	9	4	5	0	0	0	Difference
	64	150	58	36	0	0	IPSOS
80	39	26	7	7	0	1	Difference
	93	127	54	33	0	1	UBC
20	10	3	3	4	0	0	Difference

I should point out that I have adjusted my forecast for the NDP from 27 down to 25 because of a data entry error. That actually increases the error rate for The Truth Hurts in the chart above, but it better reflects the accuracy of the model because the error was caused by a data entry mistake not a mistake in the model (SES Research had the NDP at 12% in Montreal and I mistakenly entered that as 22%). But feel free to call this mistake differently than I have if you like.

Liberal Cabinet Death Watch

2006-01-20T16:01:00.000-05:00

		Last Updated:		01/23/06		11:00:00 am

CABINET DEATH WATCH
Call Me In The Morning	As Safe As A Liberal Can Be This Election
Call The Doctor	At Risk
Call The Coroner	I Think You Get The Idea
Cabinet Member	LIBERAL	CPC	NDP	Bloc	Green	Other	Hold/Lose
Member/Portfolio/Riding	Prediction
Paul Martin
Prime Minister
LaSalle-Emard	36.2%	12.6%	13.4%	31.5%	4.9%	1.3%
Call The Doctor	▲▲▲						þ
Anne McLellan
Deputy Prime Minister
Edmonton Centre	34.4%	44.0%	12.8%	0.0%	6.3%	2.5%
Call The Coroner		▲▲▲					ý
Andy Mitchell
Agriculture & Agri-Food
Parry Sound-Muskoka	43.0%	32.8%	12.8%	0.0%	11.3%	0.0%
Call Me In The Morning	▲▲▲						þ
Joe McGuire
ACOA
Egmont	46.0%	33.8%	13.1%	0.0%	7.1%	0.0%
Call Me In The Morning	▲▲▲						þ
Liza Frulla
Canadian Heritage
Jeanne-Le Ber	23.0%	12.3%	18.6%	36.8%	8.0%	1.4%
Call The Coroner				▲▲▲			ý
Joe Volpe
Citizenship & Immigration
Eglinton-Lawrence	42.9%	32.8%	15.6%	0.0%	8.4%	0.2%
Call Me In The Morning	▲▲▲						þ
Jacques Saada
Canada Econ Dev-Que
Brossard-La Prairie	27.7%	14.1%	12.8%	39.8%	5.4%	0.2%
Call The Coroner				▲▲▲			ý
Stephan Dion
Environment
Saint Laurent-Cartierville	42.3%	15.5%	18.9%	17.5%	4.6%	1.1%
Call Me In The Morning	▲▲▲						þ
Ralph Goodale
Finance
Wascana	46.4%	30.2%	17.9%	0.0%	5.4%	0.0%
Call Me In The Morning	▲▲▲						þ
Geoff Regan
Fisheries & Oceans
Halifax West	38.6%	23.8%	31.0%	0.0%	6.5%	0.0%
Call Me In The Morning	▲▲▲						þ
Pierre Pettigrew
Foreign Affairs
Papineau	22.9%	10.5%	23.3%	35.6%	5.0%	2.6%
Call The Coroner				▲▲▲			ý
Ujjal Dosanjh
Health
Vancouver South	45.2%	29.2%	21.3%	0.0%	2.5%	1.8%
Call Me In The Morning	▲▲▲						þ
Belinda Stronach
HRSD
Newmarket-Aurora	49.1%	36.1%	6.9%	0.0%	5.8%	2.0%
Call Me In The Morning	▲▲▲						ý
Andy Scott
INAC
Fredericton	38.7%	37.9%	19.2%	0.0%	4.2%	0.0%
Call The Doctor	▲▲▲						þ
David Emerson
Industry
Vancouver Kingsway	42.4%	19.5%	33.3%	0.0%	2.6%	2.2%
Call Me In The Morning	▲▲▲						þ
Lucienne Robillard
Intergovernmental Affairs
Westmount-Ville-Marie	27.9%	19.9%	28.7%	11.9%	10.6%	1.0%
Call The Doctor			▲▲▲				ý
Aileen Carroll
International Cooperation
Barrie	42.2%	41.9%	7.4%	0.0%	8.5%	0.0%
Call The Doctor	▲▲▲						þ
Jim Peterson
International Trade
Willowdale	44.5%	30.8%	14.7%	0.0%	7.7%	2.3%
Call Me In The Morning	▲▲▲						þ
Irwin Cotler
Justice
Mount Royal	48.5%	21.9%	15.1%	7.2%	6.2%	1.1%
Call Me In The Morning	▲▲▲						þ
Joe Fontana
Labour & Housing
London North Centre	38.1%	31.5%	23.1%	0.0%	6.7%	0.6%
Call The Doctor	▲▲▲						þ
Tony Valeri
House Leader
Hamilton East-Stoney Creek	42.4%	24.6%	27.5%	0.0%	4.2%	1.2%
Call Me In The Morning	▲▲▲						þ
Jack Austin
Senate Leader
Senator
Bill Graham
National Defence
Toronto Centre	38.9%	18.4%	34.0%	0.0%	7.6%	1.0%
Call The Doctor	▲▲▲						þ
Mauril Belanger
National Defence (Ass.)
Ottawa-Vanier	46.4%	21.7%	23.4%	0.0%	7.3%	1.1%
Call Me In The Morning	▲▲▲						þ
John McCallum
National Revenue
Markham-Unionville	66.7%	23.9%	6.1%	0.0%	3.3%	0.0%
Call Me In The Morning	▲▲▲						þ
John Efford
Natural Resources
Avalon	49.9%	34.8%	12.7%	0.0%	2.6%	0.0%
Call Me In The Morning	▲▲▲						þ
Scott Brison
Public Works
Kings-Hants	37.8%	34.2%	19.6%	0.0%	6.5%	2.0%
Call The Doctor	▲▲▲						þ
Ken Dryden
Social Development
York Centre	38.4%	33.3%	20.0%	0.0%	6.3%	2.1%
Call The Doctor	▲▲▲						þ
Jean Lapierre
Transport
Outremont	20.2%	11.6%	33.2%	26.3%	7.4%	1.2%
Call The Doctor			▲▲▲				ý
Reg Alcock
Treasury Board
Winnipeg South	40.6%	40.9%	12.2%	0.0%	5.5%	0.8%
Call The Doctor		▲▲▲					ý
Albina Guarnieri
Veteran Affairs
Mississauga East-Cooksville	57.4%	27.9%	8.3%	0.0%	3.9%	2.6%
Call Me In The Morning	▲▲▲						þ
Stephen Owen
Western Diversification
Vancouver Quadra	52.7%	29.8%	12.9%	0.0%	3.9%	0.6%
Call Me In The Morning	▲▲▲						þ
Tony Ianno
Families & Caregivers
Trinity-Spadina	28.0%	10.2%	52.5%	0.0%	7.9%	1.4%
Call The Coroner			▲▲▲				ý
Claudette Bradshaw
Human Resources Dev.
Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe	46.2%	29.3%	15.2%	0.0%	9.2%	0.0%
Call Me In The Morning	▲▲▲						þ
John Godfrey
Infrastr. & Communities
Don Valley West	42.9%	37.3%	13.0%	0.0%	6.9%	0.0%
Call The Doctor	▲▲▲						þ
Raymond Chan
Multiculturalism
Richmond	44.1%	39.4%	12.7%	0.0%	2.9%	0.9%
Call The Doctor	▲▲▲						þ
Ethel Blondin-Andrew
Northern Development
Western Arctic	41.6%	17.3%	41.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Call The Doctor	▲▲▲						þ
Carolyn Bennett
Public Health
St. Paul's	40.6%	25.7%	22.8%	0.0%	10.9%	0.0%
Call Me In The Morning	▲▲▲						þ
CABINET DEATH WATCH					Lose:		8

Still On The Edge Of A Conservative Majority

2006-01-13T13:58:00.000-05:00

NEW UPDATE THIS AFTERNOON

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
I have updated my seat forecaster and it is remarkably similar to the numbers today by the Strategic Counsel. I mentioned yesterday that the Strategic Counsel tracks overall impressions of the three leaders and that Stephen Harper's numbers in Ontario are better now than they have been throughout the campaign. Looking at those same numbers today his numbers are stable. That is also true for a leadership score that SES Research tracks. I said before that if Stephen Harper's leadership numbers in Ontario do not increase over the next few days expect Conservative support to come down a bit in Ontario. And that is exactly what has happened. Essentially, the negative advertising of the Liberal Party is having an effect. However, that does not mean that the Conservatives will not win Ontario. I am not ready to make that prediction, but my prediction that their numbers will come down has come true.

Now, his leadership numbers in Quebec have had a remarkable improvement. Believe it or not, according to the Strategic Counsel, Quebecer's have a more favourable opinion of Harper than any other region of Canada. His unfavourable numbers are also lower in Quebec than anywhere else. His numbers with SES Research went up nominally today over yesterday. I still believe this is the province to watch. I also still believe that, like the real-estate market in the U.S., this is a bubble that is going to burst. That is not based on any of the numbers, only my gut instincts.

Turner Size Liberal Caucus

2006-01-12T17:19:00.000-05:00

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
*****
UPDATE: From today's Globe & Mail:
The projections, which are calculated by running this week's Strategic Counsel poll of more than 3,500 Canadians through a mathematical formula, are that the Tories will win 152 seats on Jan. 23, followed by 74 for the Liberals, 60 for the Bloc and 21 for the NDP. There are 308 seats in the House, so a party needs 155 to form a majority. "Is a majority possible? Absolutely. Is it probable? We don't know yet," said Allan Gregg, chairman of the Strategic Counsel.

These numbers are VERY consistent with The Truth Hurts Seat Forecaster, which adds validity to my model. But The Truth Hurts Seat Forecaster is updated daily, so check back.
*****

Wow! The Liberals are in freefall. The Conservatives have basically stayed the same in the latest seat forecaster (see link in left column) but the Liberals are heading towards one of their worst defeats in Canadian history if this keeps up. And if you recall, I said to keep an eye on Harper's "best PM" numbers in Ontario - that this number would be an indicator of things to come. He has essentially stayed the same. I had predicted if that holds for a few days then expect the Conservative numbers to come down slightly in Ontario. However, the Strategic Council tracks the overall impressions voters have of the leaders. Stephen Harper's lowest rating this election in Ontario was when it started. His net favourable rating in Ontario is now at its high point and his net unfavourable rating is at its low point. These numbers will be good at predicting what will happen to Conservative support in Ontario. Mark my words, these are the numbers to watch over the next few days if you want to predict what will happen a week from now. Also good news for the Conservatives is that their support in Quebec outside of Montreal has gone from 29% to 33%. I must say, the rise in Tory fortunes in Quebec this election is nothing short of historic. And the Strategic Council's overall impression numbers for Harper started lower in Quebec than Ontario and now his overall impression numbers have risen so that they are better in Quebec than Ontario - even though his numbers in Ontario are now high. I find myself at a loss! Whether you are red, blue or orange, one must admit that this rise is shocking. Now I may be eating my words in a few days, but I do not believe that will continue. I expect those numbers to drop. The one hope my Conservative readers can cling to is that in politics or real life it is impossible to stop a train that is barrelling down on you. All you can do is get out of the way. If this is a steam roller sweeping across Quebec then say hello to a Conservative majority government.

The other advantage the Conservatives have is that the Liberals are doing so bad the only way the Conservatives could drop is if they tried - and even then. Right now, though, the NDP are the largest benefactor of the Liberal fall. The Liberals are in serious trouble, and most of it seems to be tied to the performance of Paul Martin.

Conservative hopes of a majority are binned on Quebec. The question to Ontario regarding the Liberals is, "Would you like to Turner-size that?"

What I Think Will Happen

2006-01-11T23:10:00.000-05:00

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
So yesterday I gave some good news for the Conservatives. Basically, it was that the decision of a whopping Conservative majority is in the hands of Quebecers. I will not rule out that possibility, but today's article will explain what I think will actually happen over the next week.

Anyone who has helped organize an election campaign knows that the least important number from a poll is who is "leading." Its the first number you will read and it is important, but it is usually not the most important. There are all sorts of other questions parties ask that are typically far more important. I do not have access to those in this election, but I was able to accurately predict the collapse of Liberal support based on the leadership indicators that SES Research tracks and the changes in voting patterns that my model picked up on. And for anyone who thinks it was the RCMP investigation that was the sole cause of the Conservative rise and Liberal fall they should go back and look at the polling data. If you look at SES you will see that Conservative support started to rise on December 22. They actually stall a bit as the RCMP investigation becomes public. But take a look at the "best PM" numbers for Ontario for December 22: Paul Martin, 27%; Stephen Harper, 26%. Now take a look at those same numbers for January 10: Paul Martin, 38%; Stephen Harper 26%. To be fair, leadership is one of the most important drivers of a party's vote but it is not the only variable. I believe that the Conservative platform has resonated with voters and at least as important is that voters are no longer scared of what the Conservatives might do - or at least many of them are not very scared. But there are some interesting things to point out about these leadership numbers. First, the fact that Harper has not improved tells me that it would be very difficult for the Conservatives to sweep Ontario. Their support has likely peaked. Second, it is almost inconceivable that the Conservatives could have such a rise in the polls, seem certain to form government, are within dreaming distance of a majority, and yet Harper's numbers are still where they were in mid-December. What is happening? To be frank, I do not know. But it is a very strong indication that the negative ads that the Liberals are currently running will work because it means Harper is still a weak spot in the Conservative armour. Do not keep an eye on the standings of the parties in Ontario in the next few SES polls; look at Harper's numbers. If Harper's numbers go down then no matter what happens to his party's standings I am certain that they will go down in Ontario over the next week. If they stay the same I suspect the Conservatives have levelled out in Ontario. If they go up, watch out. Having said that, my money is that Conservative support in Ontario is going to go down. My hunch is that those Liberal ads are going to work.

Now let us look at Atlantic Canada. On December 22 Martin's numbers were at 34% and Harper's were at 28%. By January 10 Martin was at 31% and Stephen Harper was at 25%. Basically, they have not budged. Jack Layton on the other hand has gone from 8 to 15%. It is the only region where his numbers have seen a significant increase. But I will get back to Layton and the NDP later. What is important is that I believe that the rise in the polls for the Conservatives in Atlantic Canada has been for different reasons than the rise in Ontario. I believe that part of the reason for the rise in Atlantic Canada is simply because Tory numbers have risen elsewhere. I do not want to discount the efforts of the Tories, but there are people who are now taking the party more seriously as it appears they are going to form government. People like going with winners. But that is not a solid foundation to build electoral support upon. So, the Liberal's negative ads in Atlantic Canada could be effective there as well - and I expect that they will. Even more important, if the Conservative's standing in the polls go down nationally I predict that the Atlantic numbers will follow shortly thereafter.

Now to Quebec. The whole "Mulroney Size Majority" article of yesterday was driven by Quebec's ability to make that happen. And they will continue to have that ability even if Conservative support falls in Ontario and Atlantic Canada. I will outline the Quebec numbers that would be the basis of venturing a prediction on what will happen in Quebec but I am also going to deviate from that right after I give those numbers. Martin's "best PM" numbers were at 30% in Quebec on December 22; he was at 16% on January 10. Clearly he is finished in Quebec - yesterday's man, so to speak. Stephen Harper, in contrast, was at 9% on December 22 and 26% on January 10. This is a stunning improvement! This is something Harper and the Conservatives can take great pride in. But this is where I go on my deviation. I do not believe it matters how stunning that is because I think the Conservatives have topped out in Quebec. As most of you may have guessed by now, I am not a political neophyte. My political instincts tell me that the negative ads - heck negative everything that Harper is being hit with by both the Bloc Quebecois and the Liberals - is going to stick. I think the Conservatives are likely to win seats in Quebec and on election day they should consider that a major victory. But I believe the Conservative numbers in Quebec will not be much higher than they are today. In fact, I am going to watch for signs over the next few days as to whether they will drop.

Now back to Jack Layton. I already pointed out in a previous article many days ago that the direction of NDP support in Ontario is almost 100% negatively correlated with Conservative support - when the Conservatives go up the NDP go down. It is hard to think of people moving from the NDP to the Conservatives but there actually are polling numbers during this election that show voters that move away from the NDP move equally to the Conservatives and Liberals. There is a protest vote in Ontario that is trying to make up their minds who best can deliver the message they want delivered to Martin and the Liberals. Many of the Ontario voters that will move away from the Conservatives over the next week will not want to go to the Liberals. Layton has done well this election and he will pick up many of those votes. His excellent leadership numbers in Atlantic Canada give him the same opportunity there as I expect he will have in Ontario.

So yesterday's article gives some hope to the Conservatives, and if Quebec says yes to a Conservative majority then it will happen - and it will be a big majority if that yes is strong enough. That possiblity is where we are at right now. Having said that, or blogged it as the case may be, it is not the direction I expect things will go over the next week. I think I will be prepared to make a prediction on this by the weekend.

Mulroney Size Majority

2006-01-11T14:39:00.000-05:00

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
Stephen Harper could be heading for a "Mulroney size majority", as in 1984, the way the current polling numbers are going. Based on the seat forecaster (see link in left column), the Conservatives currently have a solid majority of seats everywhere west of Quebec. I had previously written that unless the Conservatives made a breakthrough in Quebec or Atlantic Canada in the next few days you could write off a majority. Well, the Conservative numbers now clearly have traction in Atlantic Canada. Although they are still behind the Liberals in seats, it is virtually a dead heat. Given the momentum they have, one can expect that they will move ahead of the Liberals shortly. But there are two important questions remaining.

The first question is Quebec. I have been saying that if there were a sea-change happening in Quebec the polling data would be different than what we have been seeing. However, the Strategic Council poll out today breaks out "the Rest of Quebec" from the province as a whole. Outside of Montreal the dynamics of the election are definitely changing, and I have had to modify the voting patterns of the forecast model as a result. It is obvious that the Conservatives have the potential to take the Bloc on head to head outside of Montreal. They still need to increase in support to do any serious damage. However, to put it in perspective, they are now polling in this area of Quebec just slightly less than the percentage of the vote they got in Ontario in the last election. So with only two weeks left they have a lot of ground to cover, but they certainly could cover enough to make some serious gains. I already have them at six seats and it now appears a definite possibility that they could win more seats in Quebec than the Liberals. I am not sure if the Liberals have ever finished in third place in Quebec since Confederation.

The second question relates to the negative ads of the Liberal Party. Do not discount these ads. As negative ads go these are very good. There are an unusual number of them, but that means it is not the message of any one ad that the Liberals are counting on but the theme of all the ads. And of course the theme is that Harper will change Canada in a way you do not want. Although I would rank these ads as very good they are also very late. Had they run these ads on January 2 I do not know who would have formed government, though I think a majority for either party would have been out of the question. The problems with running them now is not that there is not enough time, because there is still plenty of time, but: 1) The dynamics of the election have already changed, and there are only two times a party has successfully overcome that: 1988 and 2004; and, 2) Running them now runs the risk of making the Liberals look desperate - voters do find desperate appealing.

What is clear is that there is going to be a Conservative government. What will be determined over the next few days is whether it will be a majority government or not. The question to Quebec is, "Would you like to Mulroney-size that?"
(The photo in the upper left is from Time Magazine.)

Third Worst Liberal Result In 100 Years

2006-01-11T11:18:00.000-05:00

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Blog
I have updated my forecasters again (I have also added a time stamp so you know when they have been last updated). If the current numbers hold until election day, this will be the third worst seat count for the Liberals in 100 years. Even Paul Martin is in for a tight race in his own riding. And Quebec is getting more and more interesting each day. I would bet my last dollar that the Bloc will win, but there is a race on for second. I would have to check my history books, but this election could mark the first time the Liberals finished in third place in Quebec. There is still a way to go for that to happen, though. Also, do not discount the power of the new Liberal ads. Having to pull one is going to hurt them a bit, but within three or four days the effects should be seen. Negative ads are always risky, and these are the most negative of the Liberal ads yet. However, when they are done properly they do work. My own estimation is that they might be in time to have a large effect in Altantic Canada. For the rest of the country, the Liberals should have been running these ads one week earlier. They have the potential to stop a Conservative majority, but I think a Liberal minority is all but out of the question now.

My Reflections On The French Debate

2006-01-10T21:58:00.000-05:00

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
Here are some of my reflections on the last of the leaders debates for this election.

Paul Martin:
St. Jean Baptiste himself could be the leader of the Liberal party and the Liberals still would not do well in Quebec this time. So Martin did very well in the debate, but so what?

Stephen Harper:
Harper did well in the debate, well enough that I think the Conservatives have an excellent chance at winning seats in Quebec. But I am really not sure what to say about this guy. He is boring by nature, but he has started to turn that to his advantage. He did have a couple of good jabs in the debate, but nothing approaching a knockout punch. His best answer was regarding the question on relations with the U.S. On a very minor point, Harper has said something in the debate that he has said many times before, "The only tax that everyone pays is the GST." Regardless of the price of milk, Aboriginals do not have to pay GST on it.

Gilles Duceppe:
I think he was on the right side of all the issues for Quebecers. I think he performed well enough that the Bloc Quebecois is still heading towards what is looking like their biggest victory yet. But I do not believe he won the debate. Also, I think he should bring a calculator to the next debate because all he seems to talk about is whether something will mean more money for Quebec or not. By the way, can you tell me again: Is Quebec different?

Jack Layton:
I think Layton was on the right side of all the issues for Quebecers as well. But this will not translate into a single seat for the NDP. By the way, what happened tonight to the Layton perma-smile?

If performance was the only measure I think this was the best debate of this election for all of the leaders. Here are some final reflections:

Dumbest Question of the Debate:
How could they ask the leaders if they would help someone close to them kill themselves? What type of question is that? I am surprised, however, that Martin did not find a way to work in a reference to his father.

Dumbest Answer of the Debate:
Harper, "I'm sorry. I wasn't expecting to have to answer." I still laugh about this.

Who Won:
Who cares? Sorry for the ambivalence, but nothing changed after that debate so it does not matter who won.

Martin's Seat Is At Risk

2006-01-10T16:13:00.000-05:00

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
It was one of my readers that brought to my attention the close race the Riding by Riding Predictions (see link in left column) is showing for LaSalle Emard, which is the riding of the Prime Minister. In fact, the prediction is that the Bloc Quebecois will win this seat. First off, the same caution applies to the riding predictions - there is a margin of error involved and it is explained at the beginning of the predictions. Having said that, Martin likely is in the fight of his life here. For the Bloc to be polling at 53%, or so, in Quebec they must be getting close to 70% of the francophone vote. That percentage of the vote would translate into the estimated votes for the Bloc in LaSalle Emard, since that riding is just slightly above 50% francophones. With the federalist vote split between three parties it means a close race for Paul Martin.

I am not yet predicting that he will lose his seat. However, keep an eye on this riding on election night because if these numbers hold I certainly can predict that it will be close. Check out the other riding predictions, you may find something just as interesting.

Quebec & Atlantic Canada: What Are You Going To Do?

2006-01-10T14:37:00.000-05:00

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
Except for the details, I think the election is over everywhere west of Quebec (I have updated the forecasters again). The only exception is the NDP, for whom even a small increase can result in a good number of seats. For the Conservatives and Liberals, however, their support seems to have settled in. Check out the Provincial forecast in the left column. I suspect on election day the results will be very similar for everything west of Quebec.

As for Quebec, I think they are probably in the same category. The Conservatives have seen their numbers jump and then hold. A sea-change does not work that way, at least the hold would not be for this long. They can still win more seats in Quebec but I think nine is probably their ceiling. I still reserve the right to change my mind on this, though, because I want to see over the next few days whether Conservative support really has held or whether it will start to grow again. As well, there is still the french language debate tonight. Harper could deliver a knockout punch but I suspect he is just hoping to cash in his winnings and hope for a bigger win next time in Quebec. In other words, he will play it safe.

Atlantic Canada is a different story. One poll concludes that the Liberals are winning, and a strong win. Another concludes the Conservatives and Liberals are tied. And yet another is somewhere inbetween, but still gives a good lead to the Liberals. As impossible as this may seem, I do not believe any of those polls are wrong. Those three firms could call the same 300 houses in Atlantic Canada on the same night and I suspect they could still get dramatically different results. I think when John Q. Public picks up the phone at 7pm he gives an honest answer. At 8pm he also gives an honest answer, but a different one. I think the dynamics in Atlantic Canada are on the cusp of change, but they have not yet decided. Quebec and Atlantic Canada are the ones with the greatest fear of Harper, so this should not be surprising. Time will tell what these two regions will do.

As a result, I am probably three days away from saying a Conservative majority or Liberal minority are unlikely. That is, it will be a Conservative minority government. Liberals should not give up hope yet, there is still a race for how well they will do in terms of seats - but I think forming government is out of the question. And Conservatives should not yet rule out the possibility of a majority; if Atlantic Canada turns their way and they reach what I expect is their ceiling in Quebec, nine seats, they can still do it. But I am very close to making a call.

What an interesting election!

Conservatives Edging To Majority

2006-01-10T10:23:00.000-05:00

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
My seat forecaster has been updated and shows the Conservatives now with 137 seats, and I expect as I add other polls today that number will increase (I have just added the latest EKOS poll). Several days ago I said the dynamics were changing so that a Conservative majority was possible. I said that the Tories would win seats in Quebec and that they were now adding new wins in urban Ontario. When I made that prediction others, such as Warren Kinsella, said, "every Canadian who is not comatose understands that Harper can't form a majority government."

But now a Conservative majority government is possible because the changes in dynamics that I was measuring have happened. A majority Conservative government will occur on election day if the following three things happen:
1) Quebecers shift to the Conservatives in a signficant way. The Conservatives do not need to win the Province but they need about 15 seats, which would mean the Liberals should get 8 and the Bloc 52. That is a big shift, but it is possible.
2) The Conservatives need to maintain their lead in Ontario and actually pick up another 5 seats more than currently projected.
3) The dynamics of the election do not change in the final two weeks.

You read it here first. If you are comatose you should keep reading to be the first to hear about other changes that may happen in this election.

What Resonated With Me

2006-01-09T22:09:00.000-05:00

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
Here is what resonated with me in the debate.

Gilles Duceppe:
Quebec is not divisible because it came into Canada as a whole? Well, Monsieur Duceppe, if Quebec left Canada with the same "whole" that it came in with it would be leaving without the majority of Quebec. It would be leaving without the riches of energy and resources in northern Quebec. Monsieur, if the Cree want to stay they will. The separatist myth machine is ridiculous. But when federalists like Helene Chalifour-Sherrer or Marc Garneau speak the truth they get shot down by the elitist, separatist establishment of Quebec because ... the truth hurts.

Jack Layton:
I do not understand why Layton spends as much time as he does talking about Quebec issues. There were moments in the debate that he spent time talking about Quebec when he did not have too. The NDP are not going to win a single seat in Quebec and would do better the more seats the Liberals win there. However, the NDP do well in situations like a national debate because it is one of the few moments when they get the same media attention as all the parties. And Layton did well. The down side is that as soon as the debates are over the NDP starts to fade into the background.

Paul Martin:
What is with the debate about whether Quebec is a nation? At some point Quebecers really need to ask themselves whether the issues that separatists shove to the front are of any value to Quebec? How will ordinary Quebecers benefit from that debate no matter who wins? Why did Martin let himself get involved in this debate? And what is with the proposal to amend the constitution? At first I thought it was a trap. But then Harper shot back that he does believe there are times when the notwithstanding clause should be used. As soon as he said that I thought here comes the knockout punch that Martin needs; here comes a punch that Martin has likely rehearsed all day. Then nothing. So what was the point? You mean Martin thinks that promising another round to amend the constitution is actually a vote getter and is actually a good thing to do? My goodness the political instincts that Martin and his team have demonstrated are exceptionally terrible. As you can see, I am left with more questions on his performance than commentary.

Harper:
He was boring, but that is a much better alternative than scary. Also, he was smoother than he has been in the past. He made a huge mistake saying he believed he might use the notwithstanding clause in the right circumstances; he tossed it up there for Martin to spike but then, luckily for Harper, nothing. Even though he was boring, so was the debate - though it was livelier than last time.

Funniest moment:
Duceppe, "What's bad for Canada, and Quebec, is not to talk about corruption it is not to talk about corruption." (Of course, he can speak english better than I can speak french; so maybe I should shutup now.)

Who won:
Well, I do not want to cop out on this, but it is going to sound like it. Martin displayed the most passion of all the leaders. Voters can connect with that. So in one sense Martin won the debate. However, he needed to deliver a knockout punch; and in my opinion he had two or three really good opportunities to do that and did not deliver. With no knock out punch the winnner is Harper. The sleeper here is Martin's ridiculous proposal to start another constitutional round. That is a dumb, dumb move that can backfire - particularly if he wins and has to deliver.

Tomorrow:
Harper did well enough that he is still in position to make some gains tomorrow. In fact he is probably in a better position. Martin needs to deliver the right passion tomorrow - it can work. Duceppe should keep his mouth shut, but Martin's constitutional proposal might open an opportunity for him. Layton should pretend it is the english language debate; he has nothing to gain in Quebec.

Liberals On Brink Of Disaster

2006-01-09T18:25:00.000-05:00

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
With the latest Decima poll included, which included a steep decline in support for the Liberals in Ontario, the Conservatives have moved into a strong lead in seats (see seat forecaster in left column).

Latest Decima Poll & Tonight's Debate

2006-01-09T17:03:00.000-05:00

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
The latest Decima poll is confirming that the Conservatives have pulled in front of the Liberals. More to the point, the public has had time to absorb the apparent likihood of a Conservative government and the Conservatives are not losing support nor are the NDP moving to the Liberals. I have included the Ontario and Quebec results of the Decima poll in the seat forecaster (the results from the other regions have not yet been released).

Here is what to expect from the various leaders during tonights debate:

Paul Martin:
Expect Martin to highlight his leadership experience over the others. His numbers have been dropping in that area and he needs to convince the public he is the best leader. Expect him to mention quite a bit about families. Also expect a great deal of talk about how we need to keep a progressive and caring Canada, which will be code for, "NDP supporters: if you do not want the Conservatives you have to vote for us." Finally, Martin has to deliver a knock out blow to Harper. Anything short of that almost certainly means he effectively loses the debate.

Stephen Harper:
His most important goal of the debate is not to look scary. Win or lose, if he can come out of the debate with that accomplishment then he is one step closer, and likely heading to, 24 Sussex Drive. In order to keep and gain more of the protest vote I think you will also see Harper remind Canadians a few times that the NDP supported the Liberal government for several months - with the idea being how can the NDP now say the Liberals are corrupt after having supported them in government for several months.

Jack Layton:
Layton has the difficult task of making a Conservative goverment look too scary so that the protest vote will go to the NDP but not so scary that the NDP vote goes to the Liberals. However, I think Layton should give up trying to walk this thin line. His numbers have held reasonably well in the midst of a Conservative rise so he should he should take a gamble and go after both the Liberals and Conservatives whenever and as hard as he can.

Gilles Ducceppe:
While the audience of the debate tonight will mostly be english speaking Canadians, the media coverage of the debate tonight will be in english and french. So, I think both tonight and tomorrow night Ducceppe is going to: 1) avoid any major confrontations with Harper so as not to give him any higher profile in Quebec; and, 2) portray the Conservatives as far right wing (and I would not be surprised if he throws in an American reference with that). I have said for several days now that the Conservatives are a potential threat to the Bloc in Quebec. The Liberals have a ceiling in Quebec that they cannot break. So the Bloc would much rather see the Liberals do the best they can in Quebec than the Conservatives, since the Conservatives ceiling is probably much higher. With that in mind, Duceppe may ease up on their attacks of Martin tonight and tomorrow night.

Liberals Fighting For Even One Seat Outside of West Montreal

2006-01-09T13:27:00.000-05:00

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
(Update: Today's SES Research and Decima Polls added.)
With the rise of the Conservatives the Liberals are faced with challenges in Quebec that they did not anticipate. The Riding by Riding Predictions (see link in left column) show that the Liberals (updated) might win only one seat outside of west Montreal - the riding of Bourassa. And the race is close in this riding.

The Conservatives, on the other hand, are leading in three ridings and all of them are outside of Montreal altogether. That means the Tories are not just a threat to the Liberals but they are a potential threat to the Bloc Quebecois. As a result you can count on Gilles Duceppe avoiding any major confrontations with Stephen Harper, so that he does not give him too much profile. However, you can take it to the bank that Duceppe is going to try to portray the Conservatives and Harper as very right wing. In fact, I think it is likely there will be some American reference thrown in: like the Conservatives are the Republican party of Canada.

The forecasts and predictions will be updated later today once the SES Research poll is released. (Update: this SES poll now included in all forecasts and predictions as well as the Ontario and Quebec results from a new Decima poll - once I find the other regional results for this poll the forecasts and predictions will be udpdated again.)

BC, Ontario volatile, Conservatives Leading In Three Quebec Ridings

2006-01-09T10:59:00.000-05:00

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
The forecaster has been updated, and I will now be providing daily forecasts at the national and provincial level as well as daily riding predictions.

The two areas of the country with the greatest stability in this election are the Atlantic and Alberta. British Columbia and Ontario, on the other hand, seem to be having difficulties deciding what to do. But the real story is Quebec. The Truth Hurts said the Conservatives were going to make a breakthrough in Quebec and a few days ago pegged their current support at three ridings (see the riding predictions for which three). They continue to hold those three ridings with the possibility that things are going to change in Quebec to the benefit of the Conservatives. The NDP, on the other hand, seems to be getting squeezed out. However, they have some very close races. If things go their way on election day you could easily see them add three or four seats more than what is currently forecasted.

Check back later today as the forecasts and riding predictions will be updated again based on today's SES Research poll.

Predictions For All Ridings: Belinda Stronach, Allan Cutler, Oliva Chow And More

2006-01-09T01:26:00.000-05:00

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
The riding by riding predictions are now completed. There is a prediction for every Liberal, Conservative, NDP and Green candidate running. It was updated on Sunday and will be regularly updated until election day. The predictions include the percentage for each candidate, which party won the last time and whether they can hold it this time. Later today I will be updating these predictions and the daily forecaster with the new Strategic Council/CTV/Globe & Mail poll. I will also add the SES Research poll that will be coming out today. Check back because I may do these separately, so the first update may not be the last.

For the real political junkies I recommend checking the "Hold/Lose" column of the riding predictions. Take a look at the ridings the parties may lose this time and look at how close the vote is. It is really telling of the election in general and of the particular areas of the country that this election can, and likely will, turn on.

Election 2006: Predictions For All Ridings

2006-01-08T14:39:00.000-05:00

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
Well, I had to adjust the model slightly but now I have completed predictions for all of the ridings in Canada. Click on the Riding by Riding predictions in the left column and you can check out any riding you wish. The real accuracy of the model is at the provincial level. These riding predictions are from the worksheets of that model and are provided to you as information. As a result of the changes to the model the comprehensive and daily forecaster were changed. If you are happy or upset with the results of the changes do not panic. If you check the riding by riding results, particularly in Ontario, you can see that a shift of only a few hundred votes can result in many different ridings changing. It is a very close race right now.

Conservatives Set To Win Three Quebec Ridings

2006-01-07T22:26:00.000-05:00

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
You heard it here a few days ago, the Conservatives have a chance of winning seats in Quebec. I have updated the daily seat forecast to a comprehensive forecast based on the latest polls. If the election were held today it is likely that the Conservatives would win three seats in Quebec. Check out the daily forecaster each day for updates. The comprehensive forecaster includes a breakout of seats for most provinces. And tomorrow I will be publishing the riding by riding predictions.

Daily Seat Forecaster Update - Riding Results Tomorrow

2006-01-07T17:18:00.000-05:00

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
I have updated the daily forecaster and I will be able to do another update today to the comprehensive seat forecaster (see link in left column) later today, once I buy a Toronto Star - it seems there is a very good poll in there today. Yesterday's daily forecast has been updated to a comprehensive forecast based on new polling data. That means I also have new province by province forecasts as well. Todays updates to the daily forecaster using the SES Research data did not produce any significant changes. Tomorrow I will be publishing riding by riding predictions, and that should be of interest. The comprehensive forecaster algorithms are calculated riding by riding to determine the forecast for each province. It is the provincial forecast that is accurate, but I will provide the riding results tomorrow as information for you.

I do not expect any significant changes to the seat forecasts over the next few days. Futhermore, any changes that do happen I do not believe are significant. My read is that people are pausing. This is in part because of the debate coming up, but also because the Conservatives clearly have the momentum and voters seem to be deciding if that is okay or not.

Tories Continue To Lead In Seats - Debates Will Be Critical

2006-01-07T11:47:00.000-05:00

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
UPDATE: Province by province seat forecasts now updated.
I have reviewed several different polls this morning and we are definitely at a turning point in this election. The timing of the debates could not have been more critical. Voters are trying to decide what to do and these debates may give them either the answers they are looking for or the excuse to commit.

The recent CBC story regarding the Conservative's GST cut and income tax raise could not have come at a worst time. No matter which side of this debate you come down on, this is going to create some confusion among voters and the Liberals may be able to capitalize on that.

As promised, I updated yesterday's seat forecast (see link in left column) with a more comprehesive poll than the typical daily polls. It turns out the seat forecast model I have developed so that I can use the daily polls in place of the more comprehensive polls is very accurate - there was very little difference when I updated the seat forecast.

In the past I have been updating the seat forecaster once per day. With the way polls are coming out now I cannot guarantee that once it is update that will be it for the day. Today I just backdated a seat forecast because a poll came out late. And there are two or three polls coming out today. All I can say is to check back regularly for updates.

Conservatives Promise To Raise Income Taxes

2006-01-06T23:57:00.000-05:00

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
Alright, I have never liked the Conservative's promise to cut the GST - it is an efficient tax. If you scrapped it altogether at least business people would be spared the burden of the paper work. But a cut, and this is the economist coming out in me, is bad policy. Now it is revealed that the Tories' plan to finance this cut in the GST, at least in part, by raising income taxes on the lowest tax bracket and lowering the basic exemption (click here to read the story). So now I have to write about this. Income taxes need to be lowered. I would rather see the GST raised to lower income taxes than raise income taxes to lower the GST. I know there is no way around this for the Conservatives in the middle of the election (and in their defense, they claim this is not anything new, it was released as part of their policy on the GST). So, stick to your guns if you must, though you are going to pay in votes for this one, but let it die in Parliament if you form government. Bring it as a separate item, put it to a vote, and after it is defeated never speak of it again.

Articles I am working on for:

Saturday - A new comprehensive seat forecast, though it will be back dated to Friday (the poll it is based on was released late).

Saturday - A new daily forecast. Since this will be based on an updated comprehensive forecaster it will be based on the latest voting patterns that have developed.

Sunday - With a comprehensive seat forecast in hand I will be able to update the riding by riding predictions. I intend to provide a prediction for each and every riding as well as the percentage vote for each of the main candidates. I have said this before, these are from the worksheets of the comprehensive model, so the accuracy is not great - it is more for information than anything else.

Are The Election Dynamics Changing? Debates May Decide

2006-01-06T14:30:00.000-05:00

The Truth Hurts Forecaster - Daily has been updated (click link in left column). And it reveals how the dynamics of three way races are very interesting. For example, according to the latest SES Research poll, in Ontario the Conservative Party support dropped, the NDP increased, and the Liberal Party support stayed the same. One would think that the biggest benefactor of that change, in terms of seats, would be the NDP. They do pick up a seat or two but the Liberals pick up a dozen or more. It is all about how the votes are distributed, and in Ontario the Conservative vote is not distributed well at all. Once they hit that 37-38% mark they start to see some big improvements in seats. But the movement towards that threshold produces much less. Since they went from 37% to 33% in the latest poll they dropped below that threshold and saw a big decline in seats. But the question is: What is really happening in Ontario? The Conservative numbers have dropped to roughly where they were in mid-December. Did Ontarians flirt with the Conservatives only to turn down a date? The Liberals have seen a slight rebound in Ontario, but hardly significant - and perhaps it is just a "dead cat bounce".

I think the real answer to Ontario can be seen in the NDP numbers. The direction of the NDP numbers is almost 100% negatively correlated with the direction of the Conservative numbers. That is, the NDP nearly always go down when the Conservatives go up; and up when the Conservatives go down. The trend line for the Liberals, on the other hand, has been slightly downward. In my opinion, the numbers clearly show there are a significant number of Ontarians that want a change, and more and more as the election goes on, but they cannot decide whether they can better get that change by voting NDP or Conservative. The party that can best convince Ontarians that their desire for change is best achieved through them is going to see very, very significant increases in the seats they take from this province. (UPDATE: The unusualness of this has been brought up in the comments below. However, this correlation is over a long period. I have randomly picked a dozen SES Research polls and the combined Conservative/NDP support is always between 48 and 51. It is clear there is a segment of the population in Ontario that is actually shifting between the Conservatives and NDP.)

Western Canada is a much easier story to tell. Usually there are clear distinctions with the various areas of the west. But this time there is a simple and clear story - the Liberals are in free fall. That drop has been to the benefit of the Conservative and to a lesser extend the NDP.

Quebec numbers are also very interesting, not for what is on the surface but what seems to be simmering below. I will now definitely say that the Conservatives have firmly rebounded in Quebec, even though their support is still in third place. But that is significant. Whether they can capitalize on that remains to be seen. But I am convinced that Quebecers will be looking at the Conservatives as a legitimate alternative to the two main parties in Quebec: the Liberals and Bloc Quebecois.

But what is more interesting in Quebec is that I think the 'threat' of a Conservative government, even a minority, is going to drive some dissatisfied Liberals away from the Bloc and back to the Liberals. Plus, the 'opportunity' of a Conservative government, even a minority, is going to drive other voters away from the Bloc and to the Conservatives. What we could be witnessing in Quebec is a fundamental change to the dynamics of the election. If the Bloc do not figure this out, and even if they do, they are going to be in big trouble. (Normally I try to be neutral in this blog but I hope the Bloc Quebecois do not have a clue and suffer for it.)

The greatest stability in the race so far has been in Atlantic Canada. However, if the dynamics fundamentally change in Ontario and Quebec then expect at least some changes here as well.

Anyone paying attention to the underlying dynamics of this election must be very excited about what is happening. We are now looking at the potential of not just one party rising or another falling in support but instead we could be witnessing some significant changes to the dynamics of the election. The latest numbers seem to show that the dynamics have been heading for a change but the voters have taken a brief pause. Which way will they go? Perhaps the numbers over the next few days will tell. What is more likely, however, is voters are going to closely scrutinize the leaders in the debates next week and then make up their minds. Whatever direction the electorate starts to move in after the debates I do not believe there will be anything anyone can do to stop them.

Liberals Rebound ... A Bit

2006-01-06T14:17:00.000-05:00

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
The Truth Hurts Forecaster - Daily has been updated (click link in left column). I will provide an analysis later today. I can tell you at this point that it seems that Ontario is trying to decide what it wants to do, and the Bloc better get their thinking caps on - just in case. Check back later today for more details.

Conservative Majority Government?

2006-01-05T14:54:00.000-05:00

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
How on earth could this election ever produce a Conservative majority government? Well, it is not there yet, but the fundamentals are developing - read on (and check the daily forecaster in the left column).

You have read it here before that the Conservatives even have a chance of picking up a seat in Toronto given their increase in support. Well, here is a new update. Based on the latest polling data it is not just a chance but a probability that they will win a seat in Toronto, perhaps even two. They will also be competitive in other Toronto ridings. But wait, there is more. If the polling numbers hold, or improve, the Conservatives will be breaking into Quebec. That's right, the Conservative Party will finish this election with seats in Quebec. At this point they are in third place status for seats, but moving from zero to something in Quebec is a big move. Those two breakthroughs, even as small as they are, would have been very unlikely at the beginning of this campaign. Being shut out of Toronto and Quebec makes forming a majority government all but impossible. But now it looks like the Conservatives will not be shut out. That does not yet add up to a majority. But what if this is just the start of a sea-change? The polling data indicates the Conservatives have not yet peaked. Toronto is unlikely to switch to the Conservatives in a significant way but, Quebecers have been known to do it. If this is only the beginning of a significant breakthrough for the Conservatives in Quebec then they will be within majority range on election day.

But there are problems for the Conservatives. Up to this point in the campaign the attacks from most of the parties have been directed to Paul Martin and the Liberals. But that is going to change. The Conservatives are now a threat to the Liberals, NDP and Bloc Quebecois. Gilles Ducceppe has had a free ride this election, but perhaps that is about to end. And the NDP have already started their attacks because there are seats they are going to lose to the Conservatives in Saskatchewan and British Columbia. But not only that, the Conservatives are taking away enough Liberal votes in Ontario that they are surpasing the NDP in areas the NDP had hopes of winning.

Liberals are hoping this is no different than the rise of the Tories in the last election where Conservative support fell in the final two weeks. But things are different this time. Harper has not been making amateur mistakes, the Conservatives have outlined a right wing but tempered platform, the Conservative campaign has been run very well, and the Liberals have been running a terrible campaign - though that latter point was true for all but the final days of the last campaign as well. Perhaps even more important, there was not an RCMP investigation of the Liberals going on. That, with the negative advertising directed against the Liberals, along with the previously mentioned elements, is making this a very different campaign. We do not know yet what will happen on election day, but this is not the same election as last time.

Seat Forecaster Updated: Conservative Minority Increases

2006-01-05T14:39:00.000-05:00

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
The Truth Hurts Seat Forecaster -Daily has just been updated (see link in left column) and, based on the latest polls, the Conservatives continue to add seats to their minority government. I apologize for the delay, but it seems that EKOS is going to be providing daily numbers so the model was adjusted.

Check back later today for an analysis of these numbers.

Elsie Wayne: Martin Changing Word of God!

2006-01-04T17:18:00.000-05:00

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
As the Conservative fortunes rise (click here for the analysis of the new forecast showing a Conservative minority and click the link in the left column for the forecast) the dinausours come out.

Elsie Wayne (shown in the picture stumping with Harper) was just on CTV's Mike Duffy Live preaching against same-sex marriage and how this decision will be reversed now that it looks like a Conservative government. I thought Stephen Harper made a good tactical decision in bringing this issue up on the first day because then he could lay it to rest for the remainder of the campaign. This is in no way a winning issue for the Conservatives - they already have the market cornered on that vote.

But what is worse is that Elsie Wayne repeatedly talked about this being an issue of family values and went further and said, "You do not take the word of God, that is in the bible, and change it." Speaking of Him ... oh my God, what a dumb move!

This is not going to play well in Quebec and Ontario. The Conservatives are not presently set to win any Quebec seats, but more mistakes like this could shift Quebecers to the Liberals - perhaps enough that they beat the Conservatives nationally. And Ontario has always been leery of anything that looked like religious fundamentalism. When you start quoting the bible and saying the Prime Minister wants to change the word of God you are alienating swing voters in Ontario. Plus, a majority of Ontario voters do not want this issue revisited and a large majority of Quebec voters support gay marriage.

Harper needs to reign in these people and keep them quiet or he might see a repeat of the "Paul Martin supports child pornography" fiasco. On second thought, scratch that "might"; we have seen it with this - but he can hope the impact will be nominal or nothing.
(The picture in the upper left is from the CBC Web site.)

Liberals In Big Trouble In BC, Ontario, Quebec - Part II

2006-01-04T15:01:00.000-05:00

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
The Liberals are in big trouble (for Part I of this article click here, for Part II click here). The daily seat forecaster is now calculating a Conservative minority government (see link in left column). Here is what is most likely happening:

Ontario:
Boy, Ontario. The Liberals still have a hold on the province in terms of seats, even though they are essentially tied with the Conservatives in the polls. But there are now Liberal wastelands and some serious red flags in other areas (I am sure I could have come up with a good pun about 'red' flags).

In eastern Ontario, including Ottawa, the Liberals are likely getting decimated. The Reform party's first breakthrough in Ontario was here, and now the Conservatives are laying waste to most of the Liberal support left. Southwestern Ontario is really two areas: urban and rural. The Conservatives already dominated the rural area after the last election except for the riding of Huron-Bruce - and no matter how bad the Liberals fall in Ontario the MP there will be the last Liberal standing. But the urban area of the southwest is Liberal country, with pockets of NDP. The Liberals will still do very well here, but the Conservatives are going to win some seats in this urban area. And that is a good breakthrough for them. In the 905 belt my numbers show only a slight improvement for the Conservatives at this point, but the Liberals are clinging onto many ridings by the skin of their teeth. Liberal 905 is like a house of cards waiting to be blown over.

Toronto remains a Liberal powerhouse. However, the NDP will be making a very good breakthrough there. And even the Conservatives have an outside chance of a seat. One seat does not mean a whole lot for the national numbers (though remember it was one vote that saved the Martin budget last spring). However, the Conservatives should not be competitive anywhere in Toronto and now they have a chance at a seat.

Northern Ontario remains up for grabs in many ridings. The NDP are weak in a couple of them, but the rest can be won by any of the three parties.

Negative Advertising:
First I have to say to all those Conservatives who have been saying these are not negative ads because they are true - get real! If I called you ugly and stupid I am still being negative even if you are ugly and stupid. Negative political ads convince you to vote for a party for negative reasons, and positive ads for positive reasons. The latest round of Conservative ads only have negative reasons. But guess what? As I predicted, they are working. Negative ads are a powerful tool and can easily backfire. These particular ads are very effective because of their message but also because of the timing. Had there not been an RCMP investigation going on I think undecided voters would have thought these ads were over-the-top. But the investigation has created a context to these ads that make them more acceptable. Plus, the Liberal war room let it leak that they would go negative. The Conservatives brilliantly played up that message so that when they launched their own negative ads the public was at least partially conditioned to think it was only fair game. So once you eliminate the potential of the ads backfiring all that is left is the Conservative's message: the Liberals are dirty, rotten scoundrels - throw the bastards out. If the Liberals do not fight back with their own negative ads these ads are going to kill them.

Liberals In Big Trouble In BC, Ontario, Quebec - Part I

2006-01-04T14:48:00.000-05:00

Liberals Are In BIG Trouble - Conservative Minority

2006-01-04T14:40:00.000-05:00

The Liberals are in big trouble. The daily seat forecaster is now calculating a Conservative minority government (see link in left column). Stay tuned for an explanation later today.
(An incorrect posting was made earlier today, I apologize.)

Conservatives Not So Scary Anymore

2006-01-04T09:58:00.000-05:00

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
It will be very interesting to see the results of today's seat forecast (for the article assessing the current forecast click here). There has been some interesting information coming to the surface in the polling data. For example, in an article on December 21 I wrote:

"My Conservative readers are going to hate me for this, but I think the voters are starting to believe that the priorities of a Conservative government are going to be, to a very large degree, the same as the Liberal government. However, delivery on those priorities will be consistent with a 'conservative' approach - i.e.: smaller government."

Well, my assessment seems to have been proven correct in a survey completed by Decima from December 29-31:

"In all 15 [policy] areas a plurality (minimum 42%, maximum 61%) felt that things would be no different if the Conservatives were to replace the Liberals after the election."

That is bad news for the Liberals, who want Canadians to believe that a Conservative government would negatively change Canada.

This same survey also showed that 52% of Canadians thought a Liberal majority was undesireable or unacceptable while 56% thought a Conservative majority was undesireable or unacceptable, that latter figure being the same for the NDP. So while Canadians would like a majority government, there is no consensus or which party Canadians could at least somewhat agree on as the government.

The hope for the Liberals is Ontario. In a variety of polls on a variety of issues it is the area that seems to lean in favour of the Liberals on the underlying issues. They are more likely to believe Canada is on the right track, they are more likely to think Paul Martin would make the best Prime Minister, they are more likely to think he has the best leadership skills, they are more likely to think a Conservative majority is undesireable or unacceptable, etc.

While the negative ads the Conservatives are now running are risky, I think negative advertising is what they need to do. Done poorly, negative advertising can backfire. Done properly, negative advertising can cause people to re-examine their voting intentions. If the Conservatives are going to win they need to shake Ontario up, and negative advertising may be the only way to do it. And for the Liberals, well they have been getting hit by negative ads left, right and centre. Okay, maybe not centre, but certainly from the left and right - particularly from the right. I am beginning to think that either the Liberal war room is asleep at the switch or they have a brilliant campaign plan that my feeble brain cannot comprehend. But they are going to have to run negative ads as well. Their ace in the hole has been the fear Canadians, Ontarians in particular, have of the prospects of a Conservative government. Some of that fear still exists, but most of it has subsided. Negative advertising could re-ignite that fear in favour of the Liberals.

Have the Liberals finally collapsed in Ontario? Have the Conservative's negative ads backfired? Perhaps today's seat forecast will give us a glimpse of the effects of these last few days.

Thank You Readers

2006-01-03T15:55:00.000-05:00

I want to thank everyone who reads this site. You know, I make a few bucks here or there each day, but nothing enough to make this worthwhile - yet. It's strange, though, the satisfaction one gets in providing information that others enjoy or find valuable. I am at about 400 unique visitors a day right now after less than a month of blogging. That isn't much, but it is enough that I find this rewarding. So I hope you enjoy this site.

Seat Forecast Shows Deadheat - What Does It Mean - Part III

2006-01-03T13:18:00.000-05:00

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
The seat forecaster - daily in the left column shows the race in terms of seats is now a deadheat. And it shows big increases for the NDP. How is this possible? Where is it happening? I will answers these questions in this article. (Part I deals with the Conservatives; Part II deals with the Liberals; Part III deals with the NDP.)

The first explanation involves the same warning I have made in the other articles, I need a poll with more significant breakouts so that I can run the comprehensive forecaster. However, NDP support is on the rise and here is the most likely areas where that is happening. First, they are seeing some increase in seats in Saskatchewan, which could mean Jack Layton's plea for NDP supporters to stay with the NDP this time is working. He felt that the switch of their supporters to third place Liberals in the last election cost them seats in the prairies and helped the Conservatives.

But a bigger increase in seats is coming in Ontario. In Northern Ontario they might gain a couple more seats, but the races are very tight. The same is true for a couple of seats in eastern Ontario. In total there are almost a half dozen Ontario seats that could go either way for the NDP. But the biggest potential breakthrough for the NDP is in Toronto. Half of their gains in Ontario could come from this area, and these gains are looking stronger than the half in the rest of the province. That is good news for the NDP, but the other half are so close that only a slight drop in NDP support in Ontario could mean they drop below 30 seats nationally.

So the summary for the NDP is that the reason they are doing so well in seats at this point is because there are almost a half dozen seats in Ontario where they are clinging on to a lead. They are definitely moving up in Ontario based on these latest poll numbers, but those half dozen seats or so are going to make the difference between a good increase for the NDP and a big increase for the NDP. Plus, there are another two or three seats in the rest of the country that are just as close. Shift only a few thousand votes from the NDP to the Liberals, a shift so small it would not even register in the national polling numbers, and the NDP could go from 34 seats to 27 in the blink of an eye. Does that sound like 2004 all over again?

Seat Forecast Shows Deadheat - What Does It Mean - Part II

2006-01-03T12:19:00.000-05:00

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
If you have not already, click on the seat forecaster - daily in the left column and you will see that the race in terms of seats is now a deadheat (and that is updated each day). But what is happening on the ground for the Liberals? Where are they, excuse the pun, bleeding red? I will answers these questions in this article. (Part I deals with the Conservatives; Part II deals with the Liberals; Part III deals with the NDP.)

To truly answer these questions I need a poll with significant subnational breakouts so that I can run the comprehensive seat forecaster. However, I can still make some general assessments. Not suprisingly, the Liberals are down in Quebec. The good news for them is that if they are not at rock bottom they are close to it - at least in terms of seats. There is still a chance that they could lose another seat there if Bloc Quebecois support rises. Aside from that, any increase in support for the Bloc Quebecois from here on will only consolidate ridings they are already leading in, though increase support for the Conservatives could spell trouble. The real problem facing Paul Martin is that they are going to lose about twice as many seats in Ontario as compared to Quebec, and the bottom has not yet fallen out. The Liberals loses are primarily in southwestern and eastern Ontario. However, they are also set to lose nearly half their seats in Northern Ontario.

The real area for the Liberals to watch is the 905 belt. At this point the Conservatives have likely only come back in the 905 to the level they were at on election day 2004. However, they are again competitive in some Liberal ridings. Any further downward movement for the Liberals is likely going to mean the Tories are going to pick up seats in the 905 belt and it will likely be a cascading effect. Interestingly, while Toronto will remain a Liberal stronghold, based on the current numbers the NDP will be cracking that area. Even the Conservatives have an outside chance at a riding or two in Toronto - and one is not at all unreasonable.

Out west the Liberals are still looking at more seats in British Columbia. However, with negative momentum everywhere, including in B.C., that prospect may evaborate as election day approaches.

The saving grace for the Liberals is that the race has only just begun. There are two leaders' debates yet to come, most of the advertising money has been reserved for January, and the negative ads are about to come out in full force. What will the combination of these forces mean? Well, for the Liberals it means opportunity - and boy do they need that.

Seat Forecast Shows Deadheat - What Does It Mean - Part I

2006-01-03T10:31:00.000-05:00

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
Click on the seat forecaster - daily in the left column and you will see that the race in terms of seats is now a deadheat. But what does that mean for the Conservatives? Where are they gaining seats and where are they losing seats in Canada? I will answers these questions in this article. (Part I deals with the Conservatives; Part II deals with the Liberals; Part III deals with the NDP.)

To truly answer that question I need a poll with significant subnational breakouts so that I can run the comprehensive seat forecaster. However, I can still make some general assessments. First, out west the Tories are not doing better than they did in the last election. In fact, they are doing worse. They are losing seats in British Columbia and the Prairies, Alberta excepted. The gains are coming in Ontario. They are likely going to increase their take in southwestern Ontario which, given their dominanance already in the rural area, means they are going to pick up a couple smaller urban ridings there. And, they are going to pick up more seats in eastern Ontario. The Conservatives are also competitive in a couple of ridings in Northern Ontario, but the races there are very close. But perhaps the biggest surprise, though the lowest payout for them, they have an outside chance of actually winning a seat in the heart of Toronto, the bastion of Liberal support. Add in a half dozen or so seats from Atlantic Canada and you have yourself enough of an increase to more than offset losses out west, and close in on the Liberals to boot.

The Conservatives negative ads also could not have arrived at a more opportune time for them. Negative advertising works, though it can be risky. With momentum their way these adds can shake free some people on the edge and move the Conservatives into minority government territory.

The Truth Hurts Seat Forecaster - IT'S A DEAD HEAT!

2006-01-03T00:16:00.000-05:00

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
Check out the updated daily seat forecaster (link in left column). Wow, what a race it is turning out to be! I stayed up late correcting my initial numbers so I could post it there, instead of waiting until noon tomorrow (boy am I tired, and where are the Atlantic numbers on CTV's site?) Bookmark this page and then check back tomorrow when I will provide some analysis.

You'll click here, but you won't click on an ad?

2006-01-02T23:37:00.000-05:00

Well, I don't mind too much. Enjoy.
(P.S.: The ads are right there ↑.)

The Liberals Have To Go Negative

2006-01-02T13:46:00.000-05:00

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
[As soon as you see a new SES Research poll check here, I will have a seat forecast within minutes. Bookmark this page and keep checking back.]

In two previous articles (Is Liberal Support About To Collapse; Is Liberal Support About To Collapse - Part II) I predicted that Liberal support would collapse at a time when the mainsteam media were even predicting that the Liberals had "momentum". I called it then and now it is happening. The recent RCMP investigation has been the impetus for this (I do not believe the Klander slander had much if any impact). Based on what I described in those two articles I believe this drop for the Liberal Party is going to stick, at least to some degree. That is reinforced by SES Research's leadership index which shows Stephen Harper edging out Paul Martin on leadership, at least at a national level. Where there is hope for the Liberals is that while their support has slipped in Ontario, their lead is holding. Adding to that is the fact that Martin has recovered "best PM" status in Ontario in the SES Research data. He has also maintained that status in the Atlantic region, which means the Conservative Party's recent fortunes there are likely to face pressure, though how much is yet to be determined. Where there is hope for the Conservative Party is in British Columbia. With momentum for the Liberals downward in every part of the country, to various degrees, I cannot see how there can now be significant positive momentum for the Liberals there. I held off on my own predictions in B.C. because of the historic tendency of Liberal support to slip in B.C. during the campaign, and I expect we will see that played out in the next poll.

All in all, the Liberal Party does not seem to have much choice but to run negative ads. They have been taking a hit with negative ads from the Conservatives and NDP, and the RCMP investigation plays very well into that. Plus, those negative ads against the Liberals have been very good and very effective. They are getting hit hard and losing support. Without running negative ads of their own the Liberals are fighting this election with one hand tied behind their back.

Conservative Negative Ad

2006-01-01T12:59:00.000-05:00

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
[As soon as the next SES Research poll comes out I will post a new seat forecast (see links in left column), or once a more detailed poll comes out.]

So I got caught up in a CTV blog on the new Conservative ad. I kicked off the comments with, "Wasn't *that* a negative ad?" To which there were several shocked replies. Here is a sampling:

"If quoting a government's record, and showing a headline quoting the government is negative, then, I guess, this is a 'negative' ad."

"I don't agree that this is a negative ad. From a marketing perspective it follows the basics ... This ad is Marketing 101 all the way."

"How in the world is presenting truth 'Going negative'?"

"Since when was stating clear facts considered negative?"

I had quickly shot back a response that I thought was fairly good:

"I'm not saying the ad isn't truthful, but if I call someone fat and dumb can I say I'm not being negative just because they ARE fat and dumb?"

But I think Red Tory had a better response on his site because it better explained this ad is, in fact, a negative ad:

"I think that if people can’t admit that this is a negative ad then they’re entirely clueless as to the nature of negative ads. Some folks however figure you have to stick horns on your opponent, wildly demonize them and show them eating babies or mutilating kittens in order for it to constitute 'negativity.'"

Watch the ad again. It is very effective but, it does not provide one positive reason for voting Conservative. The whole ad is about negative reasons to vote for the Conservatives. That IS a negative ad. It is not a bad thing to run a negative ad, it is perfectly legitimate to point out serious flaws in a political opponent. And there have been negative ads that have been much harsher than this one, particularly in the U.S. But this is still a negative ad, and probably the most negative ad of the election so far.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper?

2005-12-31T17:08:00.000-05:00

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
With no poll out today I ran a possible scenario to see what the outcome would be. I decreased the Liberal vote in Ontario by three percentage points. I gave two percentage points to the Conservatives and one percentage point to the NDP. The result was a loss of 11 seats for the Liberals, a gain of eight seats for the Conservatives and a gain of three seats for the NDP. Such a shift, if it held to election day, could mean Stephen Harper would become the next Prime Minister of Canada, with perhaps two more seats than the Liberals.

All of this is very preliminary. The recent SES Research poll could be a temporary shift or even a "20th" poll, but I doubt it. The other problem, though, is that this is based on the daily forecaster because the regional data of the most recent poll, an SES Research poll that showed the Liberal lead over the Conservatives being narrowed to one percentage point, is not enough for me to use in the comprehensive forecaster, and the daily forecaster is not as sophisticated as the comprehensive forecaster (the latter being better able to pick up changes in voting patterns). But I think the race is definitely tightening up, and Ontario remains the most important battleground. (I will be able to provide the next forecast as soon as the next poll comes out.)

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog

Explanation On Forecasters And Predictions

2005-12-30T11:45:00.000-05:00

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
The Truth Hurts Seat Forecaster - Comprehesive is based on more precise data but the data is only updated once per week (or as the required polling data is made available). A "*C" in the national forecasts indicates this forecast is a comprehensive forecast. Algorithms have been developed based on the voting patters of the previous election. These voting patterns are then updated with the most recent polling data that includes significant sub-national data.

The Truth Hurts Seat Forecaster - Daily is based on less precise data but the data is updated daily (or as the required polling data is made available). A "*D" in the national forecasts indicates this forecast is a daily forecast. Voting patterns are established using the latest The Truth Hurts Seat Forecaster - Comprehensive. These voting patters are then updated with the most recent polling data that includes data on the four regions of Canada.

Riding by Riding Predictions are derived from The Truth Hurts Seat Forecaster. They are less accurate than the forecasters and are therefore called predictions. In order to maximize accuracy, the forecasters calculate results riding by riding. The information provided in the Riding by Riding Predictions are from the worksheets of the forecasters. Since these predictions are less accurate they are really being provided for information only.

Multiple Polls are used if they are available (up to the three most recent polls). However, they are not simply added and then averaged. Instead, three different adjustments are made. First, the polls are weighted according to their margin of error. Greater weighting is provided to polls with a lower margin of error. Second, older polls are discounted. A poll that is one day older than another is not discounted at all. A poll that is four days older is significantly discounted. And a poll that is five days older than the most recent poll is not used at all. And lastly, a poll may be excluded, or discounted, if it was not in the field after a seminal event and another poll is available that was. One exception to the above is that some polls cannot be completely integrated as outlined above. In those cases only certain data elements can be used.

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog

How Will Your Riding Vote: Riding by Riding Predictions

2005-12-30T10:57:00.000-05:00

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
The Riding by Riding predictions (see link in left column under "2006 Federal Election") have been updated to include about 2/3 of the Ontario ridings. A threshold of 45% is presently being used before a prediction is made, which accounts for 1/3 not yet having a prediction. That threshold will be lowered as the election approaches. Even so, the results are telling of an election similar to the one held last time. However, the ridings without a prediction could still swing differently, and the areas where there are few riding predictions is also telling. One conversion that is presently being called is the riding of Newmarket-Aurora where the riding will do as their MP, Belinda Stronach, and switch from the Conservatives to the Liberals.

Battleground Ontario Has Little To Offer Conservatives

2005-12-29T21:55:00.000-05:00

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
I made the mistake in a previous article of saying that southwestern Ontario was a key battleground that the Conservatives needed to win in order to make a break through in Ontario. Boy was I wrong!

Developing my seat forecast model has given me a new perspective on things. The Conservatives only hold one seat in urban southwestern Ontario. But they are so weak there that they probably face a ceiling of a total of three. The area where the Conservatives can do well in southwestern Ontario is the rural area. But in the last election they won all but two of those ridings. One of those two is the riding of Huron Bruce. Incumbent Paul Steckle, a Liberal, has a lock on this riding. That leaves the Conservatives with a grand growth total in southwestern Ontario of three. Not exactly a treasure trove. And the Conservative Party can also write off winning absolutely any of the Toronto 416 ridings.

So where should the Conservatives put their focus. Well, for starters, the 905 belt - but not for growth. The seat forecast model shows them getting swept out of all but two of those ridings based on current polling in the 905 belt, down from seven. So that means they need to put some effort there just to be able to hold their own. And one of those ridings, Belinda Stronach's, is a write off. So if they really improve from where they are they will still lose one seat.

In eastern Ontario they might be able to pick up another three seats, but that would be their ceiling there. In Ottawa the Conservatives have one seat and have an excellent chance of picking up another three. But that is it.

In Northern Ontario, where the Conservatives are shut-out, they are fighting in three close races. With an outside chance of a fourth. The north of Ontario may be an overlooked source of seats for the Conservative Party.

So if everything goes really well for the Conservatives in Ontario, including this recent RCMP investigation, they can add another nine seats there. Nine seats means a great deal given that we are talking about a minority government. And the Conservatives recent potential breakthrough in Atlantic Canada adds to that. But net that out with the loses in British Columbia, and to a lesser but more certain degree Saskatchewan, and the Conservatives seem to be running as fast as they can only to stay still.

Check back tomorrow (Friday) for an update to the riding by riding predictions to include many Ontario ridings.

Impact of Conservative Gain In Atlantic Canada

2005-12-29T17:39:00.000-05:00

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
A recent poll by SES Research shows the Conservatives making significant gains in Atlantic Canada. Using these numbers and The Truth Hurts seat forecast model, this improvement would mean an additional two seats for the Conservatives in Atlantic Canada, both taken from the Liberals. To see more detailed results of the model click an option under "2006 Federal Election" in the left column. This recent SES Research poll has not been included.

Liberals Gaining Seats Nationally, Conservatives Losing

2005-12-28T17:48:00.000-05:00

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
The model is complete! And I can hear some of you screaming now, because it shows the Liberals with a net gain of seven seats and the Conservatives with a loss of 15. Let's see if I can explain this.

Let me start with Ontario, since that is the last model I built. I could have published the numbers three hours earlier than I did for Ontario. However, I went over them thoroughly to make sure they are correct. If one looks at the polling data, the Conservatives have seen some increase, but nothing that signficant. It does result in a minor increase in the number of seats for the Conservative Party. Most of the talk in Ontario for the Conservatives has been based on the expectations of increased seats in southwestern Ontario. However, those numbers have not moved significantly yet. So far, it is just expectations. Also, the Liberals take a few seats away from the NDP which offsets their losses to the Conservatives. However, I suspect that the NDP numbers, which went down in recent polling, will bounce back up. So even if the Conservatives do not make any further gains one can expect that the Liberals will still lose seats in Ontario by election day.

Now let me go all the way over to the west coast - British Columbia. There has been some buzz about the Liberals doing well here, but no one has really talked about the implications of this. Well, it is significant. According to recent polls the Liberals are doing well throughout the entire province. That means big gains for the Liberals at the expense of the Conservatives. In fact, the Liberals gain more seats here than they lose in Quebec.

Speaking of Quebec, while Liberal support has declined there are several seats which are nearly impossible for the Bloc Quebecois to win. I have analyzed the numbers and 14 seats is a reasonable number for the Liberals given their current polling data. Indeed, further analysis shows that it would be incredibly difficult for the Liberals to drop below 12 seats, which is only a loss of an additional two.

In the Praires we see the Liberals basically staying the same. However, the NDP are regaining seats they lost last time. Jack Layton has made much about how Conservatives were able to defeat NDP candidates because strategic voting went to the third place Liberals. It seems he has been able to convince these voters to come back to the NDP which will allow them to regain those seats. But that means loses for the Conservatives.

There are no changes for any of the parties in Atlantic Canada.

All in all, I think because Stephen Harper has very successfully set most of the agenda for the election campaign many pundits believe he is winning. However, polling on the events and issues of the campaign has actually shown that it is the Liberals that are swaying more undecided on the events and issues thus far (see The Truth Hurts article on this for specifics).

The Truth Hurts announced in a previous article that if the Conservatives are to pull ahead they must win back British Columbia and make a breakthrough in southwestern Ontario. Not enough attention has been put on the implications of these two areas. With the forecast by The Truth Hurts one can now see exactly what those implications are.

Liberals To Break Even In Ontario

2005-12-28T17:41:00.000-05:00

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
Based on The Truth Hurts seat forecast model (the forecasts are available from the link in the left column below "2006 Federal Election"), the Liberals may keep the same number of seats in Ontario as they had last election. The forecast model is based on the most recent polls. In those recent polls Liberal support has not moved significantly from the last election and there has also be a decline recently in NDP polling numbers. So, while the Conservatives gain a few seats because of their increased polling numbers, the Liberals steal enough seats away from a weaker NDP that they break even - and the NDP lose overall. Some expect this is only a temporary decline in NDP support. Additionally, many are expecting the Conservatives to make further breakthroughs in Ontario by election day. If these two events happen then there would be a significant drop in the number of seats for the Liberals.

Riding By Riding Predictions Updated

2005-12-27T16:57:00.000-05:00

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
The Riding by Riding Predictions (see link in the left column below "2006 Federal Election") has been updated to include predictions on 61 different Quebec ridings.

Liberals Set For Big Loss In Quebec

2005-12-27T16:10:00.000-05:00

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
Based on The Truth Hurts seat forecast model (the forecasts are available from the link in the left column below "2006 Federal Election"), the Liberals are heading for a big loss in Quebec. If the election were held today the model forecasts that the Liberals would win only 14 seats in the province.

Forecast Model Updated

2005-12-27T16:08:00.000-05:00

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
The Truth Hurts forecast model has been updated to include forecasts for Quebec.

NDP To Double Seats In Saskatchewan/Manitoba

2005-12-26T11:23:00.000-05:00

In what may be a reversal of the strategic voting in the last election, The Truth Hurts seat forecast model (the forecasts are available from the link in the left column below "2006 Federal Election") calculates that the NDP are set to increase their total number of seats in Manitoba and Saskatchewan to eight, based on current polling data. Click the link for complete results.

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog

Liberals Set For Big Win In British Columbia

2005-12-25T11:43:00.000-05:00

Based on The Truth Hurts seat forecast model (the forecasts are available from the link in the left column below "2006 Federal Election"), the Liberals have an opportunity for a big win in British Columbia. If the election were held today the model forecasts that the Liberals would win 20 seats in the province.

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog

Conservatives Need B.C. And Southwestern Ontario

2005-12-23T16:24:00.000-05:00

I said in my article yesterday that one of only two ways I can see the Conservatives overtaking the Liberals by election day is a collapse in voter support for the Liberals in B.C. A poll out today by The Strategic Council (for the CTV and Globe & Mail) confirms what I had expected.

In a Globe & Mail article about the poll they write:

"New polls breaking down Canada's regions show the Liberals on the rise in British Columbia since the last election, particularly in the Lower Mainland around Vancouver, while the Conservatives have dropped substantially both in the Lower Mainland and the rest of the province. The New Democrats have also shown improvement in B.C. ... British Columbia could well provide the second-largest contingent of seats for the Liberals after Ontario. Nationally, the Liberals lead with 33 per cent support, compared to 30 per cent for the Tories and 18 per cent for the NDP. The Bloc Québécois has 14-per-cent support."

The Conservative Party is going to win more seats in Ontario this federal election, I am quite prepared to make that prediction. I have my suspicions that Martin's weak leadership numbers will actually result in a sharp decline in Ontario that will result in significantly more seats for the Conservatives, but that has not yet happened. The key area to watch is southwestern Ontario. Liberal support in Ontario could decline sharply because of a collapse in support in that area. The polls also show the Conservatives on a significant upswing in eastern Ontario. While that has been much of the talk lately I think people forget that the days of eastern Ontario being Liberal country are gone. The Conservatives already hold eight of the 12 seats in eastern Ontario that are outside of Ottawa. I think their ceiling there is probably 10, only two above what they already have. And they already hold half of the six seats in Ottawa. How many more can they take there? One?

The key to Ontario for the Conservatives is southwestern Ontario, a couple of seats in the 905 belt, and maybe four more from elsewhere. But that just does not cut it. And others have talked about a Conservative upsurge in Atlantic Canada, but I just do not buy that.

My readers read it here before this latest poll, and like my talk about Martin's leadership numbers this is going to become the next big topic for discussion. There will be no Conservative victory this federal election without a collapse of support for the Liberal Party in B.C.

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog

The Truth Hurts: Paul Martin Is Yesterday's Man

2005-12-22T13:41:00.000-05:00

Alright, let's cut to the chase. Based on the various polls out there in the last few days, and their regional breakdowns, I have 'crunched' the numbers and have come up with the following seat breakout if the federal election were held today:
Liberals 121
Conservatives 102
Bloc Quebecois 62
NDP 23

While indicators on Paul Martin's leadership sunk by mid-campaign, the Conservatives have not been able to capitalize on it and Stephen Harper's numbers have only improved to about the same level as Martin. Decima Research estimates that of those who leave the Liberals 33% go to the NDP and 26% go to the Conservatives. There are more dissatisfied Liberals (27%) that either move into "undecided" or "won't vote" than move towards the Conservatives. Taking all of that into account, here are results that I think will be closer to the actual results for election day:
Liberals 110
Conservatives 105
Bloc Quebecois 64
NDP 29

As you can see, the Conservative Party does not benefit to any large degree to a fall in Liberal support - primarily for the reasons I have outlined above. Their main stumbling block has been and remains their leader, even though Harper has improved. But now Martin is as much a stumbling block for the Liberal Party in this federal election. In Quebec Martin is a liability - he is yesterday's man. Outside of Quebec, and still telling, he is at best neutral and probably becoming a liability. The reason this is still telling is because there was a time when he was seen as a big asset. But even outside of Quebec he has become yesterday's man. This blog was the first to bring this issue up, and it now appears that there is almost no realistic federal election result that will save Martin's leadership of the Liberal Party.

There are only two things left that can shake up those numbers to the Conservatives advantage. First, a collapse in the Liberal vote precipitated by the poor leadership numbers of Martin. The one area of the country where a collapse is reasonably possible is in British Columbia. If that happens, accompanied by a sharp decline in Ontario and Atlantic Canada, it is likely that this federal election would produce a Conservative minority. The second thing that can shake up the numbers I have outlined above is the right ballot question - at least in theory. The impossible challenge for the Conservatives, though, is to find and then define a ballot question that moves votes away from the Liberals with more of those votes going to the Conservatives than any other party. Given the polling numbers to date, I am not sure such a question exists. The flip side of this is that the Liberals could successfully define a ballot question to their advantage. But even if that happens I think the Liberals are still going to lose seats.

The Conservatives challenge in this election remains what it always was: convince soft Liberals that a Conservative government would not be that scary and is, indeed, necessary. The challenge for the Liberals in this election is to rebuild Martin's appeal. Though I think it is too late for that, expect a Liberal onslaught of ads showing Martin as captain Canada and Harper as the anti-captain Canada (mark my words on this one). The Bloc need only coast; they cannot build any more support and any support they could lose will be nominal at worst. Both Gilles Duceppe and Jack Layton have been performing excellently as leaders of their parties. The NDP is doing okay on the whole and they have the best potential for movement of all the parties, if they could just get more election coverage. So in the end, we are left with a federal election with some amazing undercurrents but boring results.

But, I promised to name names for you so here it goes.

Riding(s): Outremont
Incumbent(s): Jean Lapierre, Liberal
Prediction: Liberals lose to Bloc Quebecois
The results of this riding will be a referrendum on Martin's leadership. It is one of the safest Liberal ridings in the country, having gone Liberal everytime since 1935 except for one exception in 1988. Francophones make up a large but minority segment of the riding and there is a large ethnic vote. All of this should add up to an easy Liberal victory. But that is not what I am predicting. There is no Liberal MP more closely associated with Martin than Lapierre. My prediction is that he will lose, and there will not be many Liberals feeling bad enough to wear black armbands afterwards.

Riding(s): Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, and, Hamilton Mountain
Incumbent(s): Tony Valerie, and, no incumbent
Prediction: Liberals lose to NDP in both ridings
Hamilton East-Stoney Creek is another historically safe Liberal seat. But after massive support from Martin and his team, Tony Valeri defeated Sheila Copps in the nomination battle that occurred before the 2004 election. Within this riding, Tony Valeri is as closely associated with Paul Martin as Jean Lapierre. I cannot see how Tony Valeri can win the riding this time, particularly with Sheila Copps encouraging her supporters not to just stay at home but to vote against the Liberals. Had Valeri run last time where he lives, in the riding of Niagara West-Glanbrook, the Liberals would have won that seat (the Conservatives won it instead) and Sheila Copps would have easily won Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, both last time and this time. The fallout from this Liberal catastrophe (and I do not mean the potential election loss but everything that led up to this) is surely going to have an affect on the neighbouring riding of Hamilton Mountain. So I am predicting a Liberal defeat to the NDP there as well. While there are going to be many Liberals upset with Copps after this, there are going to be even more upset with Martin and his team for creating this disaster in the first place - a disaster that never had to happen.

Stay tuned for more riding by riding predictions. Each week I will publish one or two articles in which I give my prediction on at least two ridings in each article. A special link on my side panel will be created within a day that will lead you to the riding by riding predictions. When these predictions are published and for which ridings depends on the information I am able to get from my sources.

At this point the only safe bet in this election, aside from my three riding predictions above, is that Paul Martin's days are numbered. But of course, who am I to say that.

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
(The image to the upper left is from the Wikimedia Web site.)

The Issues and Events of the Federal Election

2005-12-21T20:09:00.000-05:00

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If you really want to know who is going to win an election then you need to examine predictive issues, not just who is winning at the moment. I have already gone over the leadership indicators in two previous articles (Is Liberal Support About To Collapse; Is Liberal Support About To Collapse - Part II). In this article I will examine some issues around the issues and campaign events of this election thus far (though I will leave crunching these numbers into a prediction for tomorrow).

Decima Research put a poll in the field from December 14 to 15 with questions about campaign events. Of the top five events, four of them belong to the Liberals, one to the Conservatives, and none to the NDP. However, the one that belongs to the Conservatives is negative, as is one of the ones belonging to the Liberals. Here is what I am talking about:

Awareness of Campaign Events (level of awareness):
US Ambassador's Criticism of U.S. Bashing by Liberals 84%
PM's Criticism of U.S. Policy on Climate Change 84%
Liberal Spokesperson's Beer and Popcorn Comment 79%
Liberals Effort on Climate Change 76%
Conservatives Same Sex Marriage Position 76%
(I must fall into the other 24% on the climate change event. Can someone fill me in on what the Liberals have done?)

The "beer and popcorn" comment actually had a big affect on undecided voters. It pushed 19% to lean towards the Conservatives and 11% towards the NDP. I think the NDP picked up support because that statement made the Liberals look insensitive to those needing the support. I think the Conservatives picked up some support because there are people who simply want the cash. But I think there was another reason for Conservatives seeing support lean their way because of this. My Conservative readers are going to hate me for this, but I think the voters are starting to believe that the priorities of a Conservative government are going to be, to a very large degree, the same as the Liberal government. However, delivery on those priorities will be consistent with a 'conservative' approach - i.e.: smaller government. On this issue it means that Conservatives also believe in daycare, but they believe the funding for it should be given directly to parents.

If you were wondering why the likes of Scott Reid and Karl Littler had smiles on their faces when the U.S. Ambassador criticized Paul Martin then this will interest you. Martin's team is smart enough to know a good thing when they hear it. According to Decima, 24% of undecided voters were more inclined to vote Liberal because of this event, while only 11% were more inclined to vote Conservative.

If you take all of the key issues (ten in total) and add up the percentage shift it caused among undecided voters here is the index I come up with (this method is not scientific, so it cannot be anything more than an index):
Liberals: 160
Conservatives: 105
NDP: 88
Bloc: 15

The same sex issue moved the most votes to the Bloc, and the NDP's commitment to crack down on private medical services moved the most votes to them.

You will notice that the event that drove the most votes to the NDP did not crack the top five for awareness. In fact none of the top five were events that largely benefited the NDP. I said it before and I will say it again, the NDP's biggest problem in this campaign is that they are not visible enough. As for the Conservative's index number falling short of the Liberals I do not believe they should be overly concerned. Their biggest achievement is showing to Canadians that they do not have a hidden agenda and that "progressive" is in fact in their policies if not in their name - but in a small government sort of way. None of the parties are going to see major shifts in their polling based on these issues. The real shift is going to happen once the ballot question(s) gets defined. The advantage for the Conservatives, though, is that their performance thus far will make it very difficult for the Liberals to make fear of the Conservatives a very effective ballot question.

I also want to point out that these awareness levels totally contradict the perception by many that voters would not be paying attention to the election until the new year. With issues getting higher than a 75% awareness level voters clearly are paying attention. I also want to let my readers know that tomorrow I will be crunching these and other numbers for predictions. In fact, I am going to get more specific in my prediction tomorrow and name names. So if you are involved in any of the campaigns you are definitely going to want to read my article tomorrow.

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog

Le Double Parlent

2005-12-20T14:51:00.000-05:00

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I am proud that Canada is a bilingual country. Unfortunately, though, there was a time when politicians would cleverly pitch one message in english and a different message in french in order to maximize their votes in both 'solitudes'. They would not necessarily promise different things, but they could get away with emphasizing different elements of their platforms, and leaving some out all together. But in this day and age of mass media that just is not possible. Or is it?

I needed a break from my number crunching (Is Liberal Support About To Collapse; Is Liberal Support About To Collapse - Part II). So while I will get back to that topic for my Thursday or Friday article, I thought I would put the Web sites of the five main federal parties to my "le double parlent" test. Here is how they fared.

Bloc Quebecois: F
What a disgrace. The Bloc does not even have an english version of their Web site. How is it that the main stream media have not brought up this issue? One could argue that I am being unfair since their message is not directed at english-speaking Canadians. Okay, but then why is the Bloc allowed to participate in the english debates? (See poll to the left.) The most they offer on their Web site is a one page abstract in english, so maybe in turn we can limit them to a one-minute opening statement in the english debates. (Perhaps the Bloc can develop an english version of their Web site where the text is half the size of the french version.)

Conservatives: B-
The headline on the english version of the Conservative's Web site is (at the time of writing this article): Liberals Fail To Defend Canadian Sovereignty. But they have a different headline on the french version (forgive my french): Change for truth - engaging the Conservative Party for Quebecers. Below the main headline they have "Reality Checks". There are different reality checks on the english version than there are on the french version. Clearly, they have one message they are pitching in english and another in french. When I click on the "français" button, or conversely the "english" button, I expect that the only change will be that the site is now in english or french. But I do not want to be too critical, their tactics certainly do not reach Machiavellian standards. I checked speeches, policies, and press releases; there does not appear to be any difference on these between the french and english versions, even on emphasis.

NDP: B-
While the main headline on the english and french versions are the same, the other headlines, and their linked stories, are completely different. That does not seem to be a difference of any substance over the Conservative Web site. I was not able to detect any other differences, so "ibid" my comments above.

Liberals: A+
The french version is simply, get this, a french version of the english site. I must confess that of all the parties it is the Liberals that I would have expected to have a different message on the french version of their Web site than their english version. This is not just because the Liberals have the worst history of this type of "le double parlent" but because of all the parties the Liberals are the ones that, at an organizational level, have such a distinct and separate Quebec campaign. Please understand that I think it would be acceptable to have, for example, a Quebec or B.C. section of a party's Web site that addressed more local issues, or even a "Canadien francophone" section. My concern is when it is presented as though all you are doing is changing the language but, without warning, the message is also changed. I think that is deceptive.

Green Party: C-
The Green Party comes close to having the same information on the french version of their Web site as they do on their english version. Their french version does not have anything different, it is just that some information is missing. At first I could not understand this; however, I suspect the reason is that the party simply does not have the resources to update the french version to the same degree that they update the english version. As the smallest of the political parties I analyzed I would have been tempted to give them a break on this - especially since they have made a valiant partial effort (far better than the larger and better financed Bloc Quebecois). However, it is the Green Party that has been making a big 'to-do' about how they are a national party running candidates in all 308 ridings. So, if they insist on that as a standard then they do not do very well on my "le double parlent" test.

The Truth Hurts: F
This Web site is not a political party's site but there is some irony in critizing the french versions of the federal parties' Web sites when this site does not have anything in french on it - aside from the headline of this article. (By the way, I apologize in advance for any mistakes I have made due to my poor french.)

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
(The image to the upper left is from the cover of Double Talk, by Majula Padmanabhan.)

Is Liberal Support About To Collapse - Part II

2005-12-19T16:43:00.000-05:00

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If you read my article from yesterday (Is Liberal Support About To Collapse) then you know I have some dire warnings for the Liberals. Let me first explain the basis for this. Leadership indicators have a predictive value. If the leader of a party starts polling better on various leadership indicators one can expect that the party will start polling better as well. Likewise, if a leader starts polling poorly on leadership indicators he/she is going to start to bring the party down with him or her.

Now there is a reason why this article is a "Part II". Today's SES Research numbers are continuing with numbers like I pointed out yesterday. Stephen Harper continues to hold his lead in Ontario as being viewed as the best Prime Minister. That number has to have the Liberal war-room 'concerned' enough to be working extra overtime, if Paul Martin's famous rage has not sent them into that already. Martin's lead in that category in Western Canada has gone from 10 points to 3 points. As concerning as those numbers are for Liberals, there is more to be concerned about. Up until yesterday Martin held a 7 point lead over Harper on who has the best vision for Canada. That has changed to a 3 point deficit. A one day deficit a trend does not make; and, that change is within the poll's margin of error. However, that issue goes to the very heart of the Liberal strategy, which is that Canadians would not like a Harper Canada. If that Harper lead grows then the Liberals are in worse condition than even I thought. But even if he only stays at a statistical tie that should worry the Liberals. And now to the last piece of bad news for the Liberals that I will bring up in this article, yesterday Martin held a 23 point lead over Harper on SES Research's leadership index. Today's numbers show that lead collapsing to only five points. I said it yesterday and I will say it again today, much of what is necessary for a Liberal collapse on election day is falling into place.

Here is my advice for the various parties:
Conservatives
By luck or design, Harper's team should be given credit for running the best campaign thus far. Keep coming out with the softer-side policy statements. This strategy is slowly convincing Canadians that a Conservative government with Harper as Prime Minister may not be as scary as they have thought in the past. I would also start beefing up a visible team approach: start showcasing the team that could replace the Martin cabinet. It is still early in the race, though, so beware of the Liberal fallback: villianize Stephen Harper. But even though it is early, if the Conservatives can keep things even as they are until Christmas there are going to be a whole lot of families getting together over the holidays talking about how a Conservative government would not be that bad. That is going to be a massive asset in the second half of this campaign. Oh, by the way, please, please change those television ads - they are terrible!
Liberals
Martin has some smart people working for him, so I would be surprised if they have not already alerted themselves to the problems I have outlined and analyzed numbers I do not have access to in order to develop a solution. Since leadership numbers are predictive it means if they act now they can avoid a decline in Liberal support. One tip, have someone bring a tape recorder to every local all-candidates debate in Alberta and hope some Reform-cum-Conservative MP says something stupid. As for the Liberal ads; well, let's see. Martin's numbers are starting to drop significantly on leadership indicators and he appears in the Liberal ads how many times?
NDP
Be more visible in the campaign! I would have bet bottles of beer to popcorn kernels that Jack Layton would never have the problem of not being in the media enough. While all the mainstream media were saying that Martin won the english debate (what a simplistic interpretation) I was saying that Layton won and to watch for a bounce in the polls. The NDP have gone up each of the two days following that debate, according to SES Research. Why? Because they finally got to see more of Layton. As for the NDP ads: A- (that means excellent from me). However, variety is the spice of life. Give me some more!
Bloc Quebecois
No help from me. I hope you guys do as poorly as humanly possible - or worse (but given who your opposition is that probably means 50+ seats).

And to all of the parties collectively: everything before the new year is just part of the qualifying laps. It is still important, though, because it gives you position in the new year - when the race really begins.

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
(The image to the upper left is from the cover of The Collapse of Liberal Empire, written by Paul Goldstene.)

Is Liberal Support About To Collapse

2005-12-18T17:22:00.000-05:00

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(Click here for Part II of this article) Are the wheels about to come off the Paul Martin campaign? If one reads between the lines in the polling results there actually is the makings for a pronounced decline in Liberal support.

First to Quebec. According to the SES Research polling data for December 17, 2005 - which would be the first day of polling following the english debates - the Bloc Quebecois now hold more than a two-to-one lead over the Liberals. The research company's latest regional breakouts show that the Liberals are in a neck-and-neck race with the Bloc even in Montreal. But hints of an impending disaster lurk behind other numbers. More Quebecers now see Gilles Duceppe as being a better Prime Minister than Martin! You have to be really bad when a separatist is seen as a better choice for Prime Minister of Canada. In fact, Paul Martin is no longer seen as being the best choice for Prime Minister in both regions of Central Canada (Ontario and Quebec). Martin only holds first place in that category in Western Canada and Atlantic Canada. (Stop the presses! Now I am convinced that western Canadians deliberately take the opposite view of central Canadians just to annoy them. I mean really, how can westerners like Martin more than those 'bastards' out east?)

If you look at the rest of the numbers it only gets worse. In Ontario, Stephen Harper is now seen as the best choice for Prime Minister! According to Ipsos polling data on the english debate (which I lifted from a babe-a-holic's Web site), of the three 'national' leaders (sorry, Duceppe just doesn't cut it for me as a national leader), Martin was the least visually attractive. As ugly as Jean Chretien was even he use to poll better than that in this category. Sticking with these three leaders, Martin was also the only leader whose performance caused more people's opinion of him to decline than improve. The best performance in that category was from Jack Layton, with Harper trailing closely behind in second place; those two leaders switch places on the formerly referred to question of attractiveness (which only proves Layton has to get rid of his moustache).

I could explain my analysis on a few other key numbers, but instead I encourage you to check out the data for yourself. At this point I am not predicting that the Liberal trouble will amount to a collapse. However, I am predicting that NDP support will hit 20 percent before the next debate (in the SES Research polls) and the gap between the Liberals and Conservatives will continually narrow. My prediction flies in the face of what The Strategic Counsel analysis concludes, which is that the Liberals are developing momentum. But I would contend that is an over simplified view of what is actually happening. I believe that many of the elements for a Liberal collapse on election day are there. What is still necessary for a complete collapse, however, is a breakdown in support for the Liberals in some of their safer ridings across the country, and that does not seem to have happened ... yet. If it does, it may only mean a small drop in the national polling numbers, but it will mean a big drop in the number of seats the Liberals win on election day - a collapse if you will. Either way, I do not believe for a moment that the Liberal campaign has any momentum behind it. Having said all that, Harper may yet again be able to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
(The image to the upper left is from the Wikimedia Web site.)

How Would A Conservative Minority Function

2005-12-18T11:55:00.000-05:00

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I am not sure that a stable Conservative minority government is possible.

On most legislation I think the Conservatives could work out an honourable compromise that both provided relative satisfaction to their base as well as win over support from one or more of the other parties so that it could pass. And I think they could do this for at least as long as the Liberals were able to do it in this recent Parliament - likely longer. Where they will run into problems is with their budget.

While I think the Conservatives have been unfairly labelled as being in partnership with the Bloc Quebecois at times, I think something akin to a partnership with the Bloc may be all they can do to pass their budget. While the Bloc is certainly left wing they are also decentralists, which is where a potential alliance could work. A moderate right wing budget that included some form of massive decentralization, even if it were just a transfer of funds, could win over support from the Bloc. While Stephen Harper is smart enough to know that such a scenario would likely be the kiss of death for the Conservatives in many parts of the country, he will not have many other options. The only other option I can contemplate is a centrist to centre-left budget negotiated with the NDP so that the Conservatives could win the support of the NDP in addition to the Bloc, and the more left leaning the budget the less decentralization would be necessary to win Bloc support. Only a left leaning budget could win over the support of the NDP and yet such a compromise would be a major insult to the Conservative's base and would severely undermine their support.

Harper is a smart man and well aware of the dangers of being seen to be allied with the Bloc. Maybe he would be able to pull a rabbit out of the hat.

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
(The image to the upper left is from the Wikimedia Web site.)

Have the Conservatives Gone Pinko

2005-12-17T17:27:00.000-05:00

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Some times I wonder if I am really a conservative and it is just that the Conservatives are not. And in this election their policies really have me wondering, especially on daycare.

So far the debate on daycare has focused on, to give it a slightly Conservative spin, who can make the best decision regarding their children: parents or the government. A worthy debate, and one filled with redefining the premise of that statement. But the conservative in me asks: what about the guy you are taking the money from in the first place?!

Good platforms require good policy which require good policy objectives. If a policy objective helps me I will be inclined to support it. If it helps my community, whether that be Ontario, Canada or otherwise, I am also inclined to support it. If it only falls into the category of helping others but not me then there better be some good social justice issues being addressed in the policy objectives. Now that I have bored you all I will get to my point. What policy objectives are addressed by taking $1200 from me and giving it to my next-door-neighbours who have one kid? Scott Reid stuck a beer bottle in his mouth, but the point he so miserably failed to make was that the Conservative's platform on daycare is devoid of any good daycare policy objectives; heck, they're devoid of any daycare policy objectives since my neighbours truly can spend that money on anything they want to. That is great if you are receiving the money. But the REAL conservative also examines the issues in regards to the people you are taking the money from.

Taking $1200 from me and giving it to my neighbours for no good reason smacks of socialism to me. Even if your policy objective is so that they can use the money for babysitting I still have some concerns. However, if you are taking $1200 from me to support early childhood education that is something that benefits the entire community, including me in the long run. I may still be critical of the program, because it will truly need to address education, but I agree with the policy objective. The Conservative's policy, however, is nothing more than a wealth transfer scheme.

So to the Conservatives I say: get your hand outa my wallet!

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
(The image to the upper left is from the Wikimedia Web site.)

Forecaster Successes

2005-12-17T13:53:00.000-05:00

I am very please with the results of the seat forecaster so far. Here are some successes:

Quebec
Readers of The Truth Hurts were the first to learn that the Liberals were in serious trouble in Quebec. The Truth Hurts beat the mainstream media and other blogs on this prediction because of the forecaster. The Truth Hurts was also the first to predict that the Conservatives could win seats in Quebec.

British Columbia
Readers of The Truth Hurts were the first to learn that the Liberals were in trouble in B.C. No poll had been release yet on British Columbia numbers, only on western Canada. However, algorithms have been developed for the forecaster based on the last election and then updated with each comprehensive poll in order to create voting patterns. Now, when a poll is released that only breaks out the vote according to four regions these voting patterns can be used to give a good prediction of what is happening on the ground.

NDP
The Truth Hurts Forecaster showed the NDP peaking with seats and then dropping as the Conservatives rose in support. Before the mainstream media starting informing the public that the Conservatives were a threat to the NDP you already had Jack Layton attacking them. That is because the mainstream parties have their own sophisticated polling going on. But anyone reading The Truth Hurts would have known about this at about the same time the NDP did and before the mainstream media covered it.

Keep checking back daily as the forecaster will be updated daily. There will also be a commentary that provides an analysis of what is most likely happening as a result of the polling numbers, and sometimes there have been two or three commentaries with an analysis posted each day. If you have any feedback please do not hesitate to send it to me.

Layton Won, Duceppe Lost, And Two Laughable Contradictions

2005-12-16T23:35:00.000-05:00

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I was struck by two interesting contradictions, one by Stephen Harper and the other by Gilles Duceppe. Before I address those, however, let me say that I think all of the leaders stepped their performance up a notch compared to the french debate the day before. If I had to pick a winnner, though, I would say it was Jack Layton this time.

The first interesting contradition I will mention came from Harper's comments about dealing with MPs who switch parties. Proclaiming a first hand understanding of this problem he said no one was more frustrated by it than he (though I think Peter McKay had to deal with a few more 'frustrations' regarding this than Harper did). But let us really think about this. There use to be a bunch of MPs under the banner Reform. Then, in an attempt to form some grand coalition, they became Alliance MPs. No one really bought that as any type of coalition, so it really was nothing more than changing party names. But then the Alliance MPs, formerly Reform MPs, joined with the Progressive Conservative MPs to form a new party called the Conservatives. I will have to check my history books to be sure, but I do not believe we have ever had so many MPs switch parties at the same time in all of Canada's history. And ironically, guess who played an important behind the scenes role in this major party switching event. If you guessed Belinda Stronach you would be correct.

To Harper's credit, he does seem to recognize the problem of creating a system that penalizes MPs for breaking with their party by forcing them into a by-election. We elect MPs to represent us in Parliament and make decisions. There are times that the best decision they can make on our behalf is to switch parties. I can understand why the public would want there to be some hindrance in place to that decision, but they should know that there already is. It takes years before MPs recover from such a decision on a personal level. Their new collegues do not trust them for some time. And they are persona non grata with their old collegues, often for ever. On a professional level MPs who cross the floor typically do not get re-elected. In my humble opinion these obstacles are more than enough because I believe there are too many cases where an MP should have left their party because their party's stance was no longer consistent with the best interests of their constituents. Any additional obstacles to this will only make matters worse.

The other contradiction that got the biggest laugh from me out of the whole debate was when the issue of gay marriage came up and Duceppe said that the decision was made and it should therefore not be revisited - Parliament should move forward. Well, he and other separatists do not seem to take the same view on Quebec's neverendums. Twice now Quebecers have said yes to Canada but Duceppe still believes there should be another referendum. My guess is that he believes this should constantly be revisited until Quebecers say yes to separation - though in the last two referendums they did not really ask a question clear enough that it could give them that answer.

If there was a loser tonight it was Duceppe. And that surprises me given his excellent performance in other debates. I would say that the reason he lost is that he got dragged into topics like separation when he should have been avoiding these topics since it played right into the Liberal strategy in Quebec; however, I cannot really say he got dragged into it because he seemed very willing to talk about these issues.

None of the leaders seemed to have done what was necessary to significantly improve their performance. Having said that, watch the NDP's polling numbers to see if they get any bounce from this.

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
(The image to the upper left is from the NDP Web site.)

The Separatist Myth Machine

2005-12-16T17:03:00.000-05:00

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A Liberal candidate in Quebec spoke the truth about tranfer payments and the separatist myth machine went into high gear to tear her down.

Yesterday, Helene Chalifour-Sherrer (picture to the left), a Liberal candidate in Quebec City and former principal secretary to Paul Martin, stated that, "People still have the impression that the province of Quebec is the milking cow for all of Canada. That is not the case. The province of Quebec needs equalization payments and money from Alberta, Ontario and British Columbia, otherwise it couldn't make ends meet."

Everything in that statement is 100% correct. But now here comes the Bloc's response.

"I cannot accept that Quebeckers would talk about Quebec in such terms," said Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe. "I cannot accept that we would be proud of being dependent. That is why we want to become independent, to put an end to dependency."

First of all, she clearly did not state this as something she is proud of. She stated it because the separatist myth machine has been arguing that Quebec pays more into federalism than it gets out. That is not true. Second, there is no logic to the Bloc's argument. No credible economic analysis has concluded that an independent Quebec would somehow create more wealth that would make up for the loss of transfer payments. Indeed, most economists agree that there would be four to five years of great instability following a "yes" vote. Where would this 'new' money come from in an indepedent Quebec? Somehow the separatists believe sovereignty itself creates wealth. The Globe and Mail, in an article in reference to this issue, states, "Mr. Duceppe said that if Quebec had all the powers as a sovereign country, it would not need equalization payments."

Lucien Bouchard, a former leader of the separatist parties Parti Quebecois and Bloc Quebecois, along with 12 business, academic and other leaders in their fields, issued a manifesto that urged the Quebec government to deal with the economic and fiscal problems of Quebec. Separatists and federalists alike concluded that separatism will not address these issues. Quebec will continue to face these problems when their leaders feed them myths like separatism will solve their economic woes.

Chalifour-Sherrer spoke the truth and Quebec needs more leaders like her - and they need them to speak even louder.

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
(The image to the upper left is from the Liberal Party of Canada Web site.)

Who Won The First Leaders' Debate

2005-12-16T09:30:00.000-05:00

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That was the most boring leadership debate I have ever seen.

There are some who believe that either the format or the number of participants is the cause of this. Baloney. The problem is that our current crop of leaders does not have any 'presence'. What do I mean by this? Ed Broadbent had presence. Brian Mulroney had presence. And the granddaddy of presence was none other than Pierre Trudeau. Just imagine Pierre Trudeau in the debate last night and you can imagine something very different.

When Stephen Harper said he was having difficulties with Canada's "second language" Paul Martin should have nailed him. In 'english' Canada his comment makes some sense. But the debate was overwhelmingly being viewed by french Canadians. Paul Martin should have shot back, "We have two official languages, sir. And neither one of them is 'second'." Generally Martin should not have wasted time on Harper last night, but that comment would have helped him reclaim his title as champion of french Canadians - and that would help him tremendously in his fight against Gilles Duceppe.

Out of the four I would say that Duceppe performed the best. He is slightly too left of centre for my liking in general. However, as much as I hate to admit it, he is probably the best leader of the four. (Excuse me while I spit.) Can you image if the Bloc had created a truly national party instead of a 'short-term' collection of MPs advocating separatism? They formed the Official Opposition in their first election. If they were running candidates nation wide and with a national policy platform there is a better than even chance, in my opinion, that it would be they who were the minority government right now. Perhaps they even could have formed a majority. As much as that thought may annoy you, it is really a true reflection on something else. Quebec separatists want to build a nation. Well what do they think we have been doing together for over a century?! If they were to direct their energies towards working together with the rest of us to build a great nation we would be unstoppable. Instead, they are obsessed with the constitution. Forget it! The fact that the Bloc could have been a great national party, and indeed been the government, shows that massive changes of significance to ordinary Quebecers is already possible within confederation. Just do it!

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
(The image to the upper left is from an article in the Vancouver Sun.)

The Myth About Getting Quebec To Sign The Constitution

2005-12-15T22:06:00.000-05:00

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How many times have you heard that we need to get Quebec to sign the constitution? Makes you think that it is even possible, doesn't it?

You may be surprised to know that no province signed the constitution. Furthermore, what did a yes vote mean in the last neverendum ... sorry, referendum ... in Quebec? It meant that Quebec accepted Canada, which includes the constitution. Now, for those of you who may have doubts about whether a province can actually sign the constitution all you have to do is to look at the document, which I have posted to the left of this blog. There are three names there: Queen Elizabeth, Pierre Trudeau and Jean Chretien ... and Jean Chretien's signature wasn't even necessary.

There was a separatist government in Quebec at the time the constitution was patriated. There wasn't any chance they were going to support a new constitutional framework for Canada, and Rene Levesque, Quebec Premier at the time, said as much. But nearly every Quebec MP supported the constitution and all the polls indicated that a majority of Quebecers also supported the constitution. So even saying that Quebec didn't support the constitution at the time is a myth. And Quebec chose Canada again, with its current constitution, in the last Quebec referendum.

Having said all that, our federalism is extremely flexible. Quebec's needs and those of the other provinces have been accommodated within the current structure. Together, french, english and all other Canadians have built a nation to be proud of. What change to the constitution will help forestry workers in Quebec? What help is necessary that cannot be done within the current constitution? What change to the constitution will better protect the french language? What protection is necessary that cannot be done within the current constitution? When you ask these questions you realize this debate isn't about improving the lives of Quebecers. This debate on the constitution is really about Quebec City politicians wanting more power for themselves rather than the politicians in Ottawa - it has nothing to do with the little guy.

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
(The image to the upper left is from the Centre for Research and Information on Canada.)