The Truth Hurts: January 2006

Thursday, January 26, 2006

Dangerous Thinking By Conservatives

There seems to be a consensus developing among Conservatives that they have almost a guaranteed year in office. Even more, there seems to be more and more saying that they can pass almost whatever they want in the first 100 days. There are two premises this is based upon. The first is that none of the opposition parties want an election, primarily because the public does not want an election. Although there is some truth to that, they should keep in mind that the public did not want the election we just had but still elected the Conservatives to government. The second premise is that with the Liberals heading into a leadership race they would not dare to bring down the Conservative government. And without the Liberals the Bloc and NDP are incapable of defeating the government. I would not put too much faith in that if I were the Conservatives. It is ironic that on both of these premises Joe Clark would be Harper's best advisor. Pierre Trudeau's resignation did not prevent the Liberals from defeating Clark's government. In our current situation, I do not believe it would be Paul Martin who would come back to fight. Instead, here is how I think things could develop. If the Conservatives brought in legislation that the Liberals thought they could win an election on they could defeat and bring down the government and then bring in someone like Frank McKenna to serve as leader and fight the election. There certainly are party rules, and I do not believe any of the rules allow for this. However, most people do not realize that the various political parties technically have no authority over their party's caucus in parliament. The leader of the Liberal party is the person the caucus recognizes - period. Originally, and for quite some time, it was the caucus that elected the leader. So if they appointed Frank McKenna he would be recognized by parliament as the Liberal leader. If he won the election he could then go through a leadership race, one in which I am sure he would be appointed. If he lost the election he could still go through a leadership race, but I am sure he would be challenged in such a case.

Do I think this will happen? Only if the Conservatives become arrogant enough to think they can act like they have a majority.

Wednesday, January 25, 2006

Beginning of the End for the Bloc

I would hope that since the Bloc fell short of expectations many Quebecers are rethinking the very existence of the Bloc. Let us presuppose for a moment that Quebec has concerns with federalism that are legitimate enough to justify separation. Why then do they elect separatists to Ottawa? Separatists have no desire to fix federalism. Quebecers have three main parties to choose from that cover most of the Canadian political spectrum: Liberals, Conservatives, NDP. They may find that none of those parties really reflect the views of Quebec. However, ask Albertans the same question. The policies of the Conservative party have been modified a great deal and in a direction that many Albertans would not agree with. But political parties in Canada must accomodate a wide range of views.

I fully recognize Quebecers right to vote for the Bloc. However, if the Bloc win a majority of seats next time then I will no longer take seriously Quebec's concerns with federalism because electing the Bloc demonstrates that they do not seriously want these concerns addressed.

Tuesday, January 24, 2006

How the Forecasters Stack Up

So here are the results and how various forecasts matched them. As you can see, The Truth Hurts did very well compared to other national forecasts. If you are aware of any other forecast sites I am more than prepared to add them to this comparison chart. If I find the time I will do the same comparisons at the subnational level.

I found through the election that my model's weakness, though it was not that bad, was with smaller parties. The final results reflect that as well as no other predictor had a lower error rate for the two largest parties combined and only The Truth Hurts predicted one of those two parties exactly. There is also some irony that the forecast with the absolutely worst results was from a professional polling firm. All of the others were reasonably close to one another.

	*CANADA*
	LIBERAL	CONSERVATIVE	BLOC	NDP	GREEN	OTHER
	103	124	51	29	0	1	Actual
TOTAL WRONG	99	124	60	25	0	0	The Truth Hurts
18	4	0	9	4	0	1	Difference
	104	118	56	29	0	1	Election Prediction
12	1	6	5	0	0	0	Difference
	94	128	56	29	0	1	Democratic Space
18	9	4	5	0	0	0	Difference
	64	150	58	36	0	0	IPSOS
80	39	26	7	7	0	1	Difference
	93	127	54	33	0	1	UBC
20	10	3	3	4	0	0	Difference

I should point out that I have adjusted my forecast for the NDP from 27 down to 25 because of a data entry error. That actually increases the error rate for The Truth Hurts in the chart above, but it better reflects the accuracy of the model because the error was caused by a data entry mistake not a mistake in the model (SES Research had the NDP at 12% in Montreal and I mistakenly entered that as 22%). But feel free to call this mistake differently than I have if you like.

Friday, January 20, 2006

Liberal Cabinet Death Watch

		Last Updated:		01/23/06		11:00:00 am

CABINET DEATH WATCH
Call Me In The Morning	As Safe As A Liberal Can Be This Election
Call The Doctor	At Risk
Call The Coroner	I Think You Get The Idea
Cabinet Member	LIBERAL	CPC	NDP	Bloc	Green	Other	Hold/Lose
Member/Portfolio/Riding	Prediction
Paul Martin
Prime Minister
LaSalle-Emard	36.2%	12.6%	13.4%	31.5%	4.9%	1.3%
Call The Doctor	▲▲▲						þ
Anne McLellan
Deputy Prime Minister
Edmonton Centre	34.4%	44.0%	12.8%	0.0%	6.3%	2.5%
Call The Coroner		▲▲▲					ý
Andy Mitchell
Agriculture & Agri-Food
Parry Sound-Muskoka	43.0%	32.8%	12.8%	0.0%	11.3%	0.0%
Call Me In The Morning	▲▲▲						þ
Joe McGuire
ACOA
Egmont	46.0%	33.8%	13.1%	0.0%	7.1%	0.0%
Call Me In The Morning	▲▲▲						þ
Liza Frulla
Canadian Heritage
Jeanne-Le Ber	23.0%	12.3%	18.6%	36.8%	8.0%	1.4%
Call The Coroner				▲▲▲			ý
Joe Volpe
Citizenship & Immigration
Eglinton-Lawrence	42.9%	32.8%	15.6%	0.0%	8.4%	0.2%
Call Me In The Morning	▲▲▲						þ
Jacques Saada
Canada Econ Dev-Que
Brossard-La Prairie	27.7%	14.1%	12.8%	39.8%	5.4%	0.2%
Call The Coroner				▲▲▲			ý
Stephan Dion
Environment
Saint Laurent-Cartierville	42.3%	15.5%	18.9%	17.5%	4.6%	1.1%
Call Me In The Morning	▲▲▲						þ
Ralph Goodale
Finance
Wascana	46.4%	30.2%	17.9%	0.0%	5.4%	0.0%
Call Me In The Morning	▲▲▲						þ
Geoff Regan
Fisheries & Oceans
Halifax West	38.6%	23.8%	31.0%	0.0%	6.5%	0.0%
Call Me In The Morning	▲▲▲						þ
Pierre Pettigrew
Foreign Affairs
Papineau	22.9%	10.5%	23.3%	35.6%	5.0%	2.6%
Call The Coroner				▲▲▲			ý
Ujjal Dosanjh
Health
Vancouver South	45.2%	29.2%	21.3%	0.0%	2.5%	1.8%
Call Me In The Morning	▲▲▲						þ
Belinda Stronach
HRSD
Newmarket-Aurora	49.1%	36.1%	6.9%	0.0%	5.8%	2.0%
Call Me In The Morning	▲▲▲						ý
Andy Scott
INAC
Fredericton	38.7%	37.9%	19.2%	0.0%	4.2%	0.0%
Call The Doctor	▲▲▲						þ
David Emerson
Industry
Vancouver Kingsway	42.4%	19.5%	33.3%	0.0%	2.6%	2.2%
Call Me In The Morning	▲▲▲						þ
Lucienne Robillard
Intergovernmental Affairs
Westmount-Ville-Marie	27.9%	19.9%	28.7%	11.9%	10.6%	1.0%
Call The Doctor			▲▲▲				ý
Aileen Carroll
International Cooperation
Barrie	42.2%	41.9%	7.4%	0.0%	8.5%	0.0%
Call The Doctor	▲▲▲						þ
Jim Peterson
International Trade
Willowdale	44.5%	30.8%	14.7%	0.0%	7.7%	2.3%
Call Me In The Morning	▲▲▲						þ
Irwin Cotler
Justice
Mount Royal	48.5%	21.9%	15.1%	7.2%	6.2%	1.1%
Call Me In The Morning	▲▲▲						þ
Joe Fontana
Labour & Housing
London North Centre	38.1%	31.5%	23.1%	0.0%	6.7%	0.6%
Call The Doctor	▲▲▲						þ
Tony Valeri
House Leader
Hamilton East-Stoney Creek	42.4%	24.6%	27.5%	0.0%	4.2%	1.2%
Call Me In The Morning	▲▲▲						þ
Jack Austin
Senate Leader
Senator
Bill Graham
National Defence
Toronto Centre	38.9%	18.4%	34.0%	0.0%	7.6%	1.0%
Call The Doctor	▲▲▲						þ
Mauril Belanger
National Defence (Ass.)
Ottawa-Vanier	46.4%	21.7%	23.4%	0.0%	7.3%	1.1%
Call Me In The Morning	▲▲▲						þ
John McCallum
National Revenue
Markham-Unionville	66.7%	23.9%	6.1%	0.0%	3.3%	0.0%
Call Me In The Morning	▲▲▲						þ
John Efford
Natural Resources
Avalon	49.9%	34.8%	12.7%	0.0%	2.6%	0.0%
Call Me In The Morning	▲▲▲						þ
Scott Brison
Public Works
Kings-Hants	37.8%	34.2%	19.6%	0.0%	6.5%	2.0%
Call The Doctor	▲▲▲						þ
Ken Dryden
Social Development
York Centre	38.4%	33.3%	20.0%	0.0%	6.3%	2.1%
Call The Doctor	▲▲▲						þ
Jean Lapierre
Transport
Outremont	20.2%	11.6%	33.2%	26.3%	7.4%	1.2%
Call The Doctor			▲▲▲				ý
Reg Alcock
Treasury Board
Winnipeg South	40.6%	40.9%	12.2%	0.0%	5.5%	0.8%
Call The Doctor		▲▲▲					ý
Albina Guarnieri
Veteran Affairs
Mississauga East-Cooksville	57.4%	27.9%	8.3%	0.0%	3.9%	2.6%
Call Me In The Morning	▲▲▲						þ
Stephen Owen
Western Diversification
Vancouver Quadra	52.7%	29.8%	12.9%	0.0%	3.9%	0.6%
Call Me In The Morning	▲▲▲						þ
Tony Ianno
Families & Caregivers
Trinity-Spadina	28.0%	10.2%	52.5%	0.0%	7.9%	1.4%
Call The Coroner			▲▲▲				ý
Claudette Bradshaw
Human Resources Dev.
Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe	46.2%	29.3%	15.2%	0.0%	9.2%	0.0%
Call Me In The Morning	▲▲▲						þ
John Godfrey
Infrastr. & Communities
Don Valley West	42.9%	37.3%	13.0%	0.0%	6.9%	0.0%
Call The Doctor	▲▲▲						þ
Raymond Chan
Multiculturalism
Richmond	44.1%	39.4%	12.7%	0.0%	2.9%	0.9%
Call The Doctor	▲▲▲						þ
Ethel Blondin-Andrew
Northern Development
Western Arctic	41.6%	17.3%	41.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Call The Doctor	▲▲▲						þ
Carolyn Bennett
Public Health
St. Paul's	40.6%	25.7%	22.8%	0.0%	10.9%	0.0%
Call Me In The Morning	▲▲▲						þ
CABINET DEATH WATCH					Lose:		8

Friday, January 13, 2006

Still On The Edge Of A Conservative Majority

NEW UPDATE THIS AFTERNOON

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
I have updated my seat forecaster and it is remarkably similar to the numbers today by the Strategic Counsel. I mentioned yesterday that the Strategic Counsel tracks overall impressions of the three leaders and that Stephen Harper's numbers in Ontario are better now than they have been throughout the campaign. Looking at those same numbers today his numbers are stable. That is also true for a leadership score that SES Research tracks. I said before that if Stephen Harper's leadership numbers in Ontario do not increase over the next few days expect Conservative support to come down a bit in Ontario. And that is exactly what has happened. Essentially, the negative advertising of the Liberal Party is having an effect. However, that does not mean that the Conservatives will not win Ontario. I am not ready to make that prediction, but my prediction that their numbers will come down has come true.

Now, his leadership numbers in Quebec have had a remarkable improvement. Believe it or not, according to the Strategic Counsel, Quebecer's have a more favourable opinion of Harper than any other region of Canada. His unfavourable numbers are also lower in Quebec than anywhere else. His numbers with SES Research went up nominally today over yesterday. I still believe this is the province to watch. I also still believe that, like the real-estate market in the U.S., this is a bubble that is going to burst. That is not based on any of the numbers, only my gut instincts.

Thursday, January 12, 2006

Turner Size Liberal Caucus

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
*****
UPDATE: From today's Globe & Mail:
The projections, which are calculated by running this week's Strategic Counsel poll of more than 3,500 Canadians through a mathematical formula, are that the Tories will win 152 seats on Jan. 23, followed by 74 for the Liberals, 60 for the Bloc and 21 for the NDP. There are 308 seats in the House, so a party needs 155 to form a majority. "Is a majority possible? Absolutely. Is it probable? We don't know yet," said Allan Gregg, chairman of the Strategic Counsel.

These numbers are VERY consistent with The Truth Hurts Seat Forecaster, which adds validity to my model. But The Truth Hurts Seat Forecaster is updated daily, so check back.
*****

Wow! The Liberals are in freefall. The Conservatives have basically stayed the same in the latest seat forecaster (see link in left column) but the Liberals are heading towards one of their worst defeats in Canadian history if this keeps up. And if you recall, I said to keep an eye on Harper's "best PM" numbers in Ontario - that this number would be an indicator of things to come. He has essentially stayed the same. I had predicted if that holds for a few days then expect the Conservative numbers to come down slightly in Ontario. However, the Strategic Council tracks the overall impressions voters have of the leaders. Stephen Harper's lowest rating this election in Ontario was when it started. His net favourable rating in Ontario is now at its high point and his net unfavourable rating is at its low point. These numbers will be good at predicting what will happen to Conservative support in Ontario. Mark my words, these are the numbers to watch over the next few days if you want to predict what will happen a week from now. Also good news for the Conservatives is that their support in Quebec outside of Montreal has gone from 29% to 33%. I must say, the rise in Tory fortunes in Quebec this election is nothing short of historic. And the Strategic Council's overall impression numbers for Harper started lower in Quebec than Ontario and now his overall impression numbers have risen so that they are better in Quebec than Ontario - even though his numbers in Ontario are now high. I find myself at a loss! Whether you are red, blue or orange, one must admit that this rise is shocking. Now I may be eating my words in a few days, but I do not believe that will continue. I expect those numbers to drop. The one hope my Conservative readers can cling to is that in politics or real life it is impossible to stop a train that is barrelling down on you. All you can do is get out of the way. If this is a steam roller sweeping across Quebec then say hello to a Conservative majority government.

The other advantage the Conservatives have is that the Liberals are doing so bad the only way the Conservatives could drop is if they tried - and even then. Right now, though, the NDP are the largest benefactor of the Liberal fall. The Liberals are in serious trouble, and most of it seems to be tied to the performance of Paul Martin.

Conservative hopes of a majority are binned on Quebec. The question to Ontario regarding the Liberals is, "Would you like to Turner-size that?"

Wednesday, January 11, 2006

What I Think Will Happen

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
So yesterday I gave some good news for the Conservatives. Basically, it was that the decision of a whopping Conservative majority is in the hands of Quebecers. I will not rule out that possibility, but today's article will explain what I think will actually happen over the next week.

Anyone who has helped organize an election campaign knows that the least important number from a poll is who is "leading." Its the first number you will read and it is important, but it is usually not the most important. There are all sorts of other questions parties ask that are typically far more important. I do not have access to those in this election, but I was able to accurately predict the collapse of Liberal support based on the leadership indicators that SES Research tracks and the changes in voting patterns that my model picked up on. And for anyone who thinks it was the RCMP investigation that was the sole cause of the Conservative rise and Liberal fall they should go back and look at the polling data. If you look at SES you will see that Conservative support started to rise on December 22. They actually stall a bit as the RCMP investigation becomes public. But take a look at the "best PM" numbers for Ontario for December 22: Paul Martin, 27%; Stephen Harper, 26%. Now take a look at those same numbers for January 10: Paul Martin, 38%; Stephen Harper 26%. To be fair, leadership is one of the most important drivers of a party's vote but it is not the only variable. I believe that the Conservative platform has resonated with voters and at least as important is that voters are no longer scared of what the Conservatives might do - or at least many of them are not very scared. But there are some interesting things to point out about these leadership numbers. First, the fact that Harper has not improved tells me that it would be very difficult for the Conservatives to sweep Ontario. Their support has likely peaked. Second, it is almost inconceivable that the Conservatives could have such a rise in the polls, seem certain to form government, are within dreaming distance of a majority, and yet Harper's numbers are still where they were in mid-December. What is happening? To be frank, I do not know. But it is a very strong indication that the negative ads that the Liberals are currently running will work because it means Harper is still a weak spot in the Conservative armour. Do not keep an eye on the standings of the parties in Ontario in the next few SES polls; look at Harper's numbers. If Harper's numbers go down then no matter what happens to his party's standings I am certain that they will go down in Ontario over the next week. If they stay the same I suspect the Conservatives have levelled out in Ontario. If they go up, watch out. Having said that, my money is that Conservative support in Ontario is going to go down. My hunch is that those Liberal ads are going to work.

Now let us look at Atlantic Canada. On December 22 Martin's numbers were at 34% and Harper's were at 28%. By January 10 Martin was at 31% and Stephen Harper was at 25%. Basically, they have not budged. Jack Layton on the other hand has gone from 8 to 15%. It is the only region where his numbers have seen a significant increase. But I will get back to Layton and the NDP later. What is important is that I believe that the rise in the polls for the Conservatives in Atlantic Canada has been for different reasons than the rise in Ontario. I believe that part of the reason for the rise in Atlantic Canada is simply because Tory numbers have risen elsewhere. I do not want to discount the efforts of the Tories, but there are people who are now taking the party more seriously as it appears they are going to form government. People like going with winners. But that is not a solid foundation to build electoral support upon. So, the Liberal's negative ads in Atlantic Canada could be effective there as well - and I expect that they will. Even more important, if the Conservative's standing in the polls go down nationally I predict that the Atlantic numbers will follow shortly thereafter.

Now to Quebec. The whole "Mulroney Size Majority" article of yesterday was driven by Quebec's ability to make that happen. And they will continue to have that ability even if Conservative support falls in Ontario and Atlantic Canada. I will outline the Quebec numbers that would be the basis of venturing a prediction on what will happen in Quebec but I am also going to deviate from that right after I give those numbers. Martin's "best PM" numbers were at 30% in Quebec on December 22; he was at 16% on January 10. Clearly he is finished in Quebec - yesterday's man, so to speak. Stephen Harper, in contrast, was at 9% on December 22 and 26% on January 10. This is a stunning improvement! This is something Harper and the Conservatives can take great pride in. But this is where I go on my deviation. I do not believe it matters how stunning that is because I think the Conservatives have topped out in Quebec. As most of you may have guessed by now, I am not a political neophyte. My political instincts tell me that the negative ads - heck negative everything that Harper is being hit with by both the Bloc Quebecois and the Liberals - is going to stick. I think the Conservatives are likely to win seats in Quebec and on election day they should consider that a major victory. But I believe the Conservative numbers in Quebec will not be much higher than they are today. In fact, I am going to watch for signs over the next few days as to whether they will drop.

Now back to Jack Layton. I already pointed out in a previous article many days ago that the direction of NDP support in Ontario is almost 100% negatively correlated with Conservative support - when the Conservatives go up the NDP go down. It is hard to think of people moving from the NDP to the Conservatives but there actually are polling numbers during this election that show voters that move away from the NDP move equally to the Conservatives and Liberals. There is a protest vote in Ontario that is trying to make up their minds who best can deliver the message they want delivered to Martin and the Liberals. Many of the Ontario voters that will move away from the Conservatives over the next week will not want to go to the Liberals. Layton has done well this election and he will pick up many of those votes. His excellent leadership numbers in Atlantic Canada give him the same opportunity there as I expect he will have in Ontario.

So yesterday's article gives some hope to the Conservatives, and if Quebec says yes to a Conservative majority then it will happen - and it will be a big majority if that yes is strong enough. That possiblity is where we are at right now. Having said that, or blogged it as the case may be, it is not the direction I expect things will go over the next week. I think I will be prepared to make a prediction on this by the weekend.

Mulroney Size Majority

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
Stephen Harper could be heading for a "Mulroney size majority", as in 1984, the way the current polling numbers are going. Based on the seat forecaster (see link in left column), the Conservatives currently have a solid majority of seats everywhere west of Quebec. I had previously written that unless the Conservatives made a breakthrough in Quebec or Atlantic Canada in the next few days you could write off a majority. Well, the Conservative numbers now clearly have traction in Atlantic Canada. Although they are still behind the Liberals in seats, it is virtually a dead heat. Given the momentum they have, one can expect that they will move ahead of the Liberals shortly. But there are two important questions remaining.

The first question is Quebec. I have been saying that if there were a sea-change happening in Quebec the polling data would be different than what we have been seeing. However, the Strategic Council poll out today breaks out "the Rest of Quebec" from the province as a whole. Outside of Montreal the dynamics of the election are definitely changing, and I have had to modify the voting patterns of the forecast model as a result. It is obvious that the Conservatives have the potential to take the Bloc on head to head outside of Montreal. They still need to increase in support to do any serious damage. However, to put it in perspective, they are now polling in this area of Quebec just slightly less than the percentage of the vote they got in Ontario in the last election. So with only two weeks left they have a lot of ground to cover, but they certainly could cover enough to make some serious gains. I already have them at six seats and it now appears a definite possibility that they could win more seats in Quebec than the Liberals. I am not sure if the Liberals have ever finished in third place in Quebec since Confederation.

The second question relates to the negative ads of the Liberal Party. Do not discount these ads. As negative ads go these are very good. There are an unusual number of them, but that means it is not the message of any one ad that the Liberals are counting on but the theme of all the ads. And of course the theme is that Harper will change Canada in a way you do not want. Although I would rank these ads as very good they are also very late. Had they run these ads on January 2 I do not know who would have formed government, though I think a majority for either party would have been out of the question. The problems with running them now is not that there is not enough time, because there is still plenty of time, but: 1) The dynamics of the election have already changed, and there are only two times a party has successfully overcome that: 1988 and 2004; and, 2) Running them now runs the risk of making the Liberals look desperate - voters do find desperate appealing.

What is clear is that there is going to be a Conservative government. What will be determined over the next few days is whether it will be a majority government or not. The question to Quebec is, "Would you like to Mulroney-size that?"
(The photo in the upper left is from Time Magazine.)

Third Worst Liberal Result In 100 Years

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Blog
I have updated my forecasters again (I have also added a time stamp so you know when they have been last updated). If the current numbers hold until election day, this will be the third worst seat count for the Liberals in 100 years. Even Paul Martin is in for a tight race in his own riding. And Quebec is getting more and more interesting each day. I would bet my last dollar that the Bloc will win, but there is a race on for second. I would have to check my history books, but this election could mark the first time the Liberals finished in third place in Quebec. There is still a way to go for that to happen, though. Also, do not discount the power of the new Liberal ads. Having to pull one is going to hurt them a bit, but within three or four days the effects should be seen. Negative ads are always risky, and these are the most negative of the Liberal ads yet. However, when they are done properly they do work. My own estimation is that they might be in time to have a large effect in Altantic Canada. For the rest of the country, the Liberals should have been running these ads one week earlier. They have the potential to stop a Conservative majority, but I think a Liberal minority is all but out of the question now.

Tuesday, January 10, 2006

My Reflections On The French Debate

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
Here are some of my reflections on the last of the leaders debates for this election.

Paul Martin:
St. Jean Baptiste himself could be the leader of the Liberal party and the Liberals still would not do well in Quebec this time. So Martin did very well in the debate, but so what?

Stephen Harper:
Harper did well in the debate, well enough that I think the Conservatives have an excellent chance at winning seats in Quebec. But I am really not sure what to say about this guy. He is boring by nature, but he has started to turn that to his advantage. He did have a couple of good jabs in the debate, but nothing approaching a knockout punch. His best answer was regarding the question on relations with the U.S. On a very minor point, Harper has said something in the debate that he has said many times before, "The only tax that everyone pays is the GST." Regardless of the price of milk, Aboriginals do not have to pay GST on it.

Gilles Duceppe:
I think he was on the right side of all the issues for Quebecers. I think he performed well enough that the Bloc Quebecois is still heading towards what is looking like their biggest victory yet. But I do not believe he won the debate. Also, I think he should bring a calculator to the next debate because all he seems to talk about is whether something will mean more money for Quebec or not. By the way, can you tell me again: Is Quebec different?

Jack Layton:
I think Layton was on the right side of all the issues for Quebecers as well. But this will not translate into a single seat for the NDP. By the way, what happened tonight to the Layton perma-smile?

If performance was the only measure I think this was the best debate of this election for all of the leaders. Here are some final reflections:

Dumbest Question of the Debate:
How could they ask the leaders if they would help someone close to them kill themselves? What type of question is that? I am surprised, however, that Martin did not find a way to work in a reference to his father.

Dumbest Answer of the Debate:
Harper, "I'm sorry. I wasn't expecting to have to answer." I still laugh about this.

Who Won:
Who cares? Sorry for the ambivalence, but nothing changed after that debate so it does not matter who won.

Martin's Seat Is At Risk

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
It was one of my readers that brought to my attention the close race the Riding by Riding Predictions (see link in left column) is showing for LaSalle Emard, which is the riding of the Prime Minister. In fact, the prediction is that the Bloc Quebecois will win this seat. First off, the same caution applies to the riding predictions - there is a margin of error involved and it is explained at the beginning of the predictions. Having said that, Martin likely is in the fight of his life here. For the Bloc to be polling at 53%, or so, in Quebec they must be getting close to 70% of the francophone vote. That percentage of the vote would translate into the estimated votes for the Bloc in LaSalle Emard, since that riding is just slightly above 50% francophones. With the federalist vote split between three parties it means a close race for Paul Martin.

I am not yet predicting that he will lose his seat. However, keep an eye on this riding on election night because if these numbers hold I certainly can predict that it will be close. Check out the other riding predictions, you may find something just as interesting.

Quebec & Atlantic Canada: What Are You Going To Do?

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
Except for the details, I think the election is over everywhere west of Quebec (I have updated the forecasters again). The only exception is the NDP, for whom even a small increase can result in a good number of seats. For the Conservatives and Liberals, however, their support seems to have settled in. Check out the Provincial forecast in the left column. I suspect on election day the results will be very similar for everything west of Quebec.

As for Quebec, I think they are probably in the same category. The Conservatives have seen their numbers jump and then hold. A sea-change does not work that way, at least the hold would not be for this long. They can still win more seats in Quebec but I think nine is probably their ceiling. I still reserve the right to change my mind on this, though, because I want to see over the next few days whether Conservative support really has held or whether it will start to grow again. As well, there is still the french language debate tonight. Harper could deliver a knockout punch but I suspect he is just hoping to cash in his winnings and hope for a bigger win next time in Quebec. In other words, he will play it safe.

Atlantic Canada is a different story. One poll concludes that the Liberals are winning, and a strong win. Another concludes the Conservatives and Liberals are tied. And yet another is somewhere inbetween, but still gives a good lead to the Liberals. As impossible as this may seem, I do not believe any of those polls are wrong. Those three firms could call the same 300 houses in Atlantic Canada on the same night and I suspect they could still get dramatically different results. I think when John Q. Public picks up the phone at 7pm he gives an honest answer. At 8pm he also gives an honest answer, but a different one. I think the dynamics in Atlantic Canada are on the cusp of change, but they have not yet decided. Quebec and Atlantic Canada are the ones with the greatest fear of Harper, so this should not be surprising. Time will tell what these two regions will do.

As a result, I am probably three days away from saying a Conservative majority or Liberal minority are unlikely. That is, it will be a Conservative minority government. Liberals should not give up hope yet, there is still a race for how well they will do in terms of seats - but I think forming government is out of the question. And Conservatives should not yet rule out the possibility of a majority; if Atlantic Canada turns their way and they reach what I expect is their ceiling in Quebec, nine seats, they can still do it. But I am very close to making a call.

What an interesting election!

Conservatives Edging To Majority

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
My seat forecaster has been updated and shows the Conservatives now with 137 seats, and I expect as I add other polls today that number will increase (I have just added the latest EKOS poll). Several days ago I said the dynamics were changing so that a Conservative majority was possible. I said that the Tories would win seats in Quebec and that they were now adding new wins in urban Ontario. When I made that prediction others, such as Warren Kinsella, said, "every Canadian who is not comatose understands that Harper can't form a majority government."

But now a Conservative majority government is possible because the changes in dynamics that I was measuring have happened. A majority Conservative government will occur on election day if the following three things happen:
1) Quebecers shift to the Conservatives in a signficant way. The Conservatives do not need to win the Province but they need about 15 seats, which would mean the Liberals should get 8 and the Bloc 52. That is a big shift, but it is possible.
2) The Conservatives need to maintain their lead in Ontario and actually pick up another 5 seats more than currently projected.
3) The dynamics of the election do not change in the final two weeks.

You read it here first. If you are comatose you should keep reading to be the first to hear about other changes that may happen in this election.

Monday, January 09, 2006

What Resonated With Me

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
Here is what resonated with me in the debate.

Gilles Duceppe:
Quebec is not divisible because it came into Canada as a whole? Well, Monsieur Duceppe, if Quebec left Canada with the same "whole" that it came in with it would be leaving without the majority of Quebec. It would be leaving without the riches of energy and resources in northern Quebec. Monsieur, if the Cree want to stay they will. The separatist myth machine is ridiculous. But when federalists like Helene Chalifour-Sherrer or Marc Garneau speak the truth they get shot down by the elitist, separatist establishment of Quebec because ... the truth hurts.

Jack Layton:
I do not understand why Layton spends as much time as he does talking about Quebec issues. There were moments in the debate that he spent time talking about Quebec when he did not have too. The NDP are not going to win a single seat in Quebec and would do better the more seats the Liberals win there. However, the NDP do well in situations like a national debate because it is one of the few moments when they get the same media attention as all the parties. And Layton did well. The down side is that as soon as the debates are over the NDP starts to fade into the background.

Paul Martin:
What is with the debate about whether Quebec is a nation? At some point Quebecers really need to ask themselves whether the issues that separatists shove to the front are of any value to Quebec? How will ordinary Quebecers benefit from that debate no matter who wins? Why did Martin let himself get involved in this debate? And what is with the proposal to amend the constitution? At first I thought it was a trap. But then Harper shot back that he does believe there are times when the notwithstanding clause should be used. As soon as he said that I thought here comes the knockout punch that Martin needs; here comes a punch that Martin has likely rehearsed all day. Then nothing. So what was the point? You mean Martin thinks that promising another round to amend the constitution is actually a vote getter and is actually a good thing to do? My goodness the political instincts that Martin and his team have demonstrated are exceptionally terrible. As you can see, I am left with more questions on his performance than commentary.

Harper:
He was boring, but that is a much better alternative than scary. Also, he was smoother than he has been in the past. He made a huge mistake saying he believed he might use the notwithstanding clause in the right circumstances; he tossed it up there for Martin to spike but then, luckily for Harper, nothing. Even though he was boring, so was the debate - though it was livelier than last time.

Funniest moment:
Duceppe, "What's bad for Canada, and Quebec, is not to talk about corruption it is not to talk about corruption." (Of course, he can speak english better than I can speak french; so maybe I should shutup now.)

Who won:
Well, I do not want to cop out on this, but it is going to sound like it. Martin displayed the most passion of all the leaders. Voters can connect with that. So in one sense Martin won the debate. However, he needed to deliver a knockout punch; and in my opinion he had two or three really good opportunities to do that and did not deliver. With no knock out punch the winnner is Harper. The sleeper here is Martin's ridiculous proposal to start another constitutional round. That is a dumb, dumb move that can backfire - particularly if he wins and has to deliver.

Tomorrow:
Harper did well enough that he is still in position to make some gains tomorrow. In fact he is probably in a better position. Martin needs to deliver the right passion tomorrow - it can work. Duceppe should keep his mouth shut, but Martin's constitutional proposal might open an opportunity for him. Layton should pretend it is the english language debate; he has nothing to gain in Quebec.

Liberals On Brink Of Disaster

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
With the latest Decima poll included, which included a steep decline in support for the Liberals in Ontario, the Conservatives have moved into a strong lead in seats (see seat forecaster in left column).

Latest Decima Poll & Tonight's Debate

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
The latest Decima poll is confirming that the Conservatives have pulled in front of the Liberals. More to the point, the public has had time to absorb the apparent likihood of a Conservative government and the Conservatives are not losing support nor are the NDP moving to the Liberals. I have included the Ontario and Quebec results of the Decima poll in the seat forecaster (the results from the other regions have not yet been released).

Here is what to expect from the various leaders during tonights debate:

Paul Martin:
Expect Martin to highlight his leadership experience over the others. His numbers have been dropping in that area and he needs to convince the public he is the best leader. Expect him to mention quite a bit about families. Also expect a great deal of talk about how we need to keep a progressive and caring Canada, which will be code for, "NDP supporters: if you do not want the Conservatives you have to vote for us." Finally, Martin has to deliver a knock out blow to Harper. Anything short of that almost certainly means he effectively loses the debate.

Stephen Harper:
His most important goal of the debate is not to look scary. Win or lose, if he can come out of the debate with that accomplishment then he is one step closer, and likely heading to, 24 Sussex Drive. In order to keep and gain more of the protest vote I think you will also see Harper remind Canadians a few times that the NDP supported the Liberal government for several months - with the idea being how can the NDP now say the Liberals are corrupt after having supported them in government for several months.

Jack Layton:
Layton has the difficult task of making a Conservative goverment look too scary so that the protest vote will go to the NDP but not so scary that the NDP vote goes to the Liberals. However, I think Layton should give up trying to walk this thin line. His numbers have held reasonably well in the midst of a Conservative rise so he should he should take a gamble and go after both the Liberals and Conservatives whenever and as hard as he can.

Gilles Ducceppe:
While the audience of the debate tonight will mostly be english speaking Canadians, the media coverage of the debate tonight will be in english and french. So, I think both tonight and tomorrow night Ducceppe is going to: 1) avoid any major confrontations with Harper so as not to give him any higher profile in Quebec; and, 2) portray the Conservatives as far right wing (and I would not be surprised if he throws in an American reference with that). I have said for several days now that the Conservatives are a potential threat to the Bloc in Quebec. The Liberals have a ceiling in Quebec that they cannot break. So the Bloc would much rather see the Liberals do the best they can in Quebec than the Conservatives, since the Conservatives ceiling is probably much higher. With that in mind, Duceppe may ease up on their attacks of Martin tonight and tomorrow night.

Liberals Fighting For Even One Seat Outside of West Montreal

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
(Update: Today's SES Research and Decima Polls added.)
With the rise of the Conservatives the Liberals are faced with challenges in Quebec that they did not anticipate. The Riding by Riding Predictions (see link in left column) show that the Liberals (updated) might win only one seat outside of west Montreal - the riding of Bourassa. And the race is close in this riding.

The Conservatives, on the other hand, are leading in three ridings and all of them are outside of Montreal altogether. That means the Tories are not just a threat to the Liberals but they are a potential threat to the Bloc Quebecois. As a result you can count on Gilles Duceppe avoiding any major confrontations with Stephen Harper, so that he does not give him too much profile. However, you can take it to the bank that Duceppe is going to try to portray the Conservatives and Harper as very right wing. In fact, I think it is likely there will be some American reference thrown in: like the Conservatives are the Republican party of Canada.

The forecasts and predictions will be updated later today once the SES Research poll is released. (Update: this SES poll now included in all forecasts and predictions as well as the Ontario and Quebec results from a new Decima poll - once I find the other regional results for this poll the forecasts and predictions will be udpdated again.)

BC, Ontario volatile, Conservatives Leading In Three Quebec Ridings

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
The forecaster has been updated, and I will now be providing daily forecasts at the national and provincial level as well as daily riding predictions.

The two areas of the country with the greatest stability in this election are the Atlantic and Alberta. British Columbia and Ontario, on the other hand, seem to be having difficulties deciding what to do. But the real story is Quebec. The Truth Hurts said the Conservatives were going to make a breakthrough in Quebec and a few days ago pegged their current support at three ridings (see the riding predictions for which three). They continue to hold those three ridings with the possibility that things are going to change in Quebec to the benefit of the Conservatives. The NDP, on the other hand, seems to be getting squeezed out. However, they have some very close races. If things go their way on election day you could easily see them add three or four seats more than what is currently forecasted.

Check back later today as the forecasts and riding predictions will be updated again based on today's SES Research poll.

Predictions For All Ridings: Belinda Stronach, Allan Cutler, Oliva Chow And More

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
The riding by riding predictions are now completed. There is a prediction for every Liberal, Conservative, NDP and Green candidate running. It was updated on Sunday and will be regularly updated until election day. The predictions include the percentage for each candidate, which party won the last time and whether they can hold it this time. Later today I will be updating these predictions and the daily forecaster with the new Strategic Council/CTV/Globe & Mail poll. I will also add the SES Research poll that will be coming out today. Check back because I may do these separately, so the first update may not be the last.

For the real political junkies I recommend checking the "Hold/Lose" column of the riding predictions. Take a look at the ridings the parties may lose this time and look at how close the vote is. It is really telling of the election in general and of the particular areas of the country that this election can, and likely will, turn on.

Sunday, January 08, 2006

Election 2006: Predictions For All Ridings

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
Well, I had to adjust the model slightly but now I have completed predictions for all of the ridings in Canada. Click on the Riding by Riding predictions in the left column and you can check out any riding you wish. The real accuracy of the model is at the provincial level. These riding predictions are from the worksheets of that model and are provided to you as information. As a result of the changes to the model the comprehensive and daily forecaster were changed. If you are happy or upset with the results of the changes do not panic. If you check the riding by riding results, particularly in Ontario, you can see that a shift of only a few hundred votes can result in many different ridings changing. It is a very close race right now.

Saturday, January 07, 2006

Conservatives Set To Win Three Quebec Ridings

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
You heard it here a few days ago, the Conservatives have a chance of winning seats in Quebec. I have updated the daily seat forecast to a comprehensive forecast based on the latest polls. If the election were held today it is likely that the Conservatives would win three seats in Quebec. Check out the daily forecaster each day for updates. The comprehensive forecaster includes a breakout of seats for most provinces. And tomorrow I will be publishing the riding by riding predictions.

Daily Seat Forecaster Update - Riding Results Tomorrow

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
I have updated the daily forecaster and I will be able to do another update today to the comprehensive seat forecaster (see link in left column) later today, once I buy a Toronto Star - it seems there is a very good poll in there today. Yesterday's daily forecast has been updated to a comprehensive forecast based on new polling data. That means I also have new province by province forecasts as well. Todays updates to the daily forecaster using the SES Research data did not produce any significant changes. Tomorrow I will be publishing riding by riding predictions, and that should be of interest. The comprehensive forecaster algorithms are calculated riding by riding to determine the forecast for each province. It is the provincial forecast that is accurate, but I will provide the riding results tomorrow as information for you.

I do not expect any significant changes to the seat forecasts over the next few days. Futhermore, any changes that do happen I do not believe are significant. My read is that people are pausing. This is in part because of the debate coming up, but also because the Conservatives clearly have the momentum and voters seem to be deciding if that is okay or not.

Tories Continue To Lead In Seats - Debates Will Be Critical

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
UPDATE: Province by province seat forecasts now updated.
I have reviewed several different polls this morning and we are definitely at a turning point in this election. The timing of the debates could not have been more critical. Voters are trying to decide what to do and these debates may give them either the answers they are looking for or the excuse to commit.

The recent CBC story regarding the Conservative's GST cut and income tax raise could not have come at a worst time. No matter which side of this debate you come down on, this is going to create some confusion among voters and the Liberals may be able to capitalize on that.

As promised, I updated yesterday's seat forecast (see link in left column) with a more comprehesive poll than the typical daily polls. It turns out the seat forecast model I have developed so that I can use the daily polls in place of the more comprehensive polls is very accurate - there was very little difference when I updated the seat forecast.

In the past I have been updating the seat forecaster once per day. With the way polls are coming out now I cannot guarantee that once it is update that will be it for the day. Today I just backdated a seat forecast because a poll came out late. And there are two or three polls coming out today. All I can say is to check back regularly for updates.

Friday, January 06, 2006

Conservatives Promise To Raise Income Taxes

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
Alright, I have never liked the Conservative's promise to cut the GST - it is an efficient tax. If you scrapped it altogether at least business people would be spared the burden of the paper work. But a cut, and this is the economist coming out in me, is bad policy. Now it is revealed that the Tories' plan to finance this cut in the GST, at least in part, by raising income taxes on the lowest tax bracket and lowering the basic exemption (click here to read the story). So now I have to write about this. Income taxes need to be lowered. I would rather see the GST raised to lower income taxes than raise income taxes to lower the GST. I know there is no way around this for the Conservatives in the middle of the election (and in their defense, they claim this is not anything new, it was released as part of their policy on the GST). So, stick to your guns if you must, though you are going to pay in votes for this one, but let it die in Parliament if you form government. Bring it as a separate item, put it to a vote, and after it is defeated never speak of it again.

Articles I am working on for:

Saturday - A new comprehensive seat forecast, though it will be back dated to Friday (the poll it is based on was released late).

Saturday - A new daily forecast. Since this will be based on an updated comprehensive forecaster it will be based on the latest voting patterns that have developed.

Sunday - With a comprehensive seat forecast in hand I will be able to update the riding by riding predictions. I intend to provide a prediction for each and every riding as well as the percentage vote for each of the main candidates. I have said this before, these are from the worksheets of the comprehensive model, so the accuracy is not great - it is more for information than anything else.

Are The Election Dynamics Changing? Debates May Decide

The Truth Hurts Forecaster - Daily has been updated (click link in left column). And it reveals how the dynamics of three way races are very interesting. For example, according to the latest SES Research poll, in Ontario the Conservative Party support dropped, the NDP increased, and the Liberal Party support stayed the same. One would think that the biggest benefactor of that change, in terms of seats, would be the NDP. They do pick up a seat or two but the Liberals pick up a dozen or more. It is all about how the votes are distributed, and in Ontario the Conservative vote is not distributed well at all. Once they hit that 37-38% mark they start to see some big improvements in seats. But the movement towards that threshold produces much less. Since they went from 37% to 33% in the latest poll they dropped below that threshold and saw a big decline in seats. But the question is: What is really happening in Ontario? The Conservative numbers have dropped to roughly where they were in mid-December. Did Ontarians flirt with the Conservatives only to turn down a date? The Liberals have seen a slight rebound in Ontario, but hardly significant - and perhaps it is just a "dead cat bounce".

I think the real answer to Ontario can be seen in the NDP numbers. The direction of the NDP numbers is almost 100% negatively correlated with the direction of the Conservative numbers. That is, the NDP nearly always go down when the Conservatives go up; and up when the Conservatives go down. The trend line for the Liberals, on the other hand, has been slightly downward. In my opinion, the numbers clearly show there are a significant number of Ontarians that want a change, and more and more as the election goes on, but they cannot decide whether they can better get that change by voting NDP or Conservative. The party that can best convince Ontarians that their desire for change is best achieved through them is going to see very, very significant increases in the seats they take from this province. (UPDATE: The unusualness of this has been brought up in the comments below. However, this correlation is over a long period. I have randomly picked a dozen SES Research polls and the combined Conservative/NDP support is always between 48 and 51. It is clear there is a segment of the population in Ontario that is actually shifting between the Conservatives and NDP.)

Western Canada is a much easier story to tell. Usually there are clear distinctions with the various areas of the west. But this time there is a simple and clear story - the Liberals are in free fall. That drop has been to the benefit of the Conservative and to a lesser extend the NDP.

Quebec numbers are also very interesting, not for what is on the surface but what seems to be simmering below. I will now definitely say that the Conservatives have firmly rebounded in Quebec, even though their support is still in third place. But that is significant. Whether they can capitalize on that remains to be seen. But I am convinced that Quebecers will be looking at the Conservatives as a legitimate alternative to the two main parties in Quebec: the Liberals and Bloc Quebecois.

But what is more interesting in Quebec is that I think the 'threat' of a Conservative government, even a minority, is going to drive some dissatisfied Liberals away from the Bloc and back to the Liberals. Plus, the 'opportunity' of a Conservative government, even a minority, is going to drive other voters away from the Bloc and to the Conservatives. What we could be witnessing in Quebec is a fundamental change to the dynamics of the election. If the Bloc do not figure this out, and even if they do, they are going to be in big trouble. (Normally I try to be neutral in this blog but I hope the Bloc Quebecois do not have a clue and suffer for it.)

The greatest stability in the race so far has been in Atlantic Canada. However, if the dynamics fundamentally change in Ontario and Quebec then expect at least some changes here as well.

Anyone paying attention to the underlying dynamics of this election must be very excited about what is happening. We are now looking at the potential of not just one party rising or another falling in support but instead we could be witnessing some significant changes to the dynamics of the election. The latest numbers seem to show that the dynamics have been heading for a change but the voters have taken a brief pause. Which way will they go? Perhaps the numbers over the next few days will tell. What is more likely, however, is voters are going to closely scrutinize the leaders in the debates next week and then make up their minds. Whatever direction the electorate starts to move in after the debates I do not believe there will be anything anyone can do to stop them.

Liberals Rebound ... A Bit

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
The Truth Hurts Forecaster - Daily has been updated (click link in left column). I will provide an analysis later today. I can tell you at this point that it seems that Ontario is trying to decide what it wants to do, and the Bloc better get their thinking caps on - just in case. Check back later today for more details.

Thursday, January 05, 2006

Conservative Majority Government?

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
How on earth could this election ever produce a Conservative majority government? Well, it is not there yet, but the fundamentals are developing - read on (and check the daily forecaster in the left column).

You have read it here before that the Conservatives even have a chance of picking up a seat in Toronto given their increase in support. Well, here is a new update. Based on the latest polling data it is not just a chance but a probability that they will win a seat in Toronto, perhaps even two. They will also be competitive in other Toronto ridings. But wait, there is more. If the polling numbers hold, or improve, the Conservatives will be breaking into Quebec. That's right, the Conservative Party will finish this election with seats in Quebec. At this point they are in third place status for seats, but moving from zero to something in Quebec is a big move. Those two breakthroughs, even as small as they are, would have been very unlikely at the beginning of this campaign. Being shut out of Toronto and Quebec makes forming a majority government all but impossible. But now it looks like the Conservatives will not be shut out. That does not yet add up to a majority. But what if this is just the start of a sea-change? The polling data indicates the Conservatives have not yet peaked. Toronto is unlikely to switch to the Conservatives in a significant way but, Quebecers have been known to do it. If this is only the beginning of a significant breakthrough for the Conservatives in Quebec then they will be within majority range on election day.

But there are problems for the Conservatives. Up to this point in the campaign the attacks from most of the parties have been directed to Paul Martin and the Liberals. But that is going to change. The Conservatives are now a threat to the Liberals, NDP and Bloc Quebecois. Gilles Ducceppe has had a free ride this election, but perhaps that is about to end. And the NDP have already started their attacks because there are seats they are going to lose to the Conservatives in Saskatchewan and British Columbia. But not only that, the Conservatives are taking away enough Liberal votes in Ontario that they are surpasing the NDP in areas the NDP had hopes of winning.

Liberals are hoping this is no different than the rise of the Tories in the last election where Conservative support fell in the final two weeks. But things are different this time. Harper has not been making amateur mistakes, the Conservatives have outlined a right wing but tempered platform, the Conservative campaign has been run very well, and the Liberals have been running a terrible campaign - though that latter point was true for all but the final days of the last campaign as well. Perhaps even more important, there was not an RCMP investigation of the Liberals going on. That, with the negative advertising directed against the Liberals, along with the previously mentioned elements, is making this a very different campaign. We do not know yet what will happen on election day, but this is not the same election as last time.

Seat Forecaster Updated: Conservative Minority Increases

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
The Truth Hurts Seat Forecaster -Daily has just been updated (see link in left column) and, based on the latest polls, the Conservatives continue to add seats to their minority government. I apologize for the delay, but it seems that EKOS is going to be providing daily numbers so the model was adjusted.

Check back later today for an analysis of these numbers.

Wednesday, January 04, 2006

Elsie Wayne: Martin Changing Word of God!

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
As the Conservative fortunes rise (click here for the analysis of the new forecast showing a Conservative minority and click the link in the left column for the forecast) the dinausours come out.

Elsie Wayne (shown in the picture stumping with Harper) was just on CTV's Mike Duffy Live preaching against same-sex marriage and how this decision will be reversed now that it looks like a Conservative government. I thought Stephen Harper made a good tactical decision in bringing this issue up on the first day because then he could lay it to rest for the remainder of the campaign. This is in no way a winning issue for the Conservatives - they already have the market cornered on that vote.

But what is worse is that Elsie Wayne repeatedly talked about this being an issue of family values and went further and said, "You do not take the word of God, that is in the bible, and change it." Speaking of Him ... oh my God, what a dumb move!

This is not going to play well in Quebec and Ontario. The Conservatives are not presently set to win any Quebec seats, but more mistakes like this could shift Quebecers to the Liberals - perhaps enough that they beat the Conservatives nationally. And Ontario has always been leery of anything that looked like religious fundamentalism. When you start quoting the bible and saying the Prime Minister wants to change the word of God you are alienating swing voters in Ontario. Plus, a majority of Ontario voters do not want this issue revisited and a large majority of Quebec voters support gay marriage.

Harper needs to reign in these people and keep them quiet or he might see a repeat of the "Paul Martin supports child pornography" fiasco. On second thought, scratch that "might"; we have seen it with this - but he can hope the impact will be nominal or nothing.
(The picture in the upper left is from the CBC Web site.)

Liberals In Big Trouble In BC, Ontario, Quebec - Part II

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
The Liberals are in big trouble (for Part I of this article click here, for Part II click here). The daily seat forecaster is now calculating a Conservative minority government (see link in left column). Here is what is most likely happening:

Ontario:
Boy, Ontario. The Liberals still have a hold on the province in terms of seats, even though they are essentially tied with the Conservatives in the polls. But there are now Liberal wastelands and some serious red flags in other areas (I am sure I could have come up with a good pun about 'red' flags).

In eastern Ontario, including Ottawa, the Liberals are likely getting decimated. The Reform party's first breakthrough in Ontario was here, and now the Conservatives are laying waste to most of the Liberal support left. Southwestern Ontario is really two areas: urban and rural. The Conservatives already dominated the rural area after the last election except for the riding of Huron-Bruce - and no matter how bad the Liberals fall in Ontario the MP there will be the last Liberal standing. But the urban area of the southwest is Liberal country, with pockets of NDP. The Liberals will still do very well here, but the Conservatives are going to win some seats in this urban area. And that is a good breakthrough for them. In the 905 belt my numbers show only a slight improvement for the Conservatives at this point, but the Liberals are clinging onto many ridings by the skin of their teeth. Liberal 905 is like a house of cards waiting to be blown over.

Toronto remains a Liberal powerhouse. However, the NDP will be making a very good breakthrough there. And even the Conservatives have an outside chance of a seat. One seat does not mean a whole lot for the national numbers (though remember it was one vote that saved the Martin budget last spring). However, the Conservatives should not be competitive anywhere in Toronto and now they have a chance at a seat.

Northern Ontario remains up for grabs in many ridings. The NDP are weak in a couple of them, but the rest can be won by any of the three parties.

Negative Advertising:
First I have to say to all those Conservatives who have been saying these are not negative ads because they are true - get real! If I called you ugly and stupid I am still being negative even if you are ugly and stupid. Negative political ads convince you to vote for a party for negative reasons, and positive ads for positive reasons. The latest round of Conservative ads only have negative reasons. But guess what? As I predicted, they are working. Negative ads are a powerful tool and can easily backfire. These particular ads are very effective because of their message but also because of the timing. Had there not been an RCMP investigation going on I think undecided voters would have thought these ads were over-the-top. But the investigation has created a context to these ads that make them more acceptable. Plus, the Liberal war room let it leak that they would go negative. The Conservatives brilliantly played up that message so that when they launched their own negative ads the public was at least partially conditioned to think it was only fair game. So once you eliminate the potential of the ads backfiring all that is left is the Conservative's message: the Liberals are dirty, rotten scoundrels - throw the bastards out. If the Liberals do not fight back with their own negative ads these ads are going to kill them.

Liberals In Big Trouble In BC, Ontario, Quebec - Part I

Liberals Are In BIG Trouble - Conservative Minority

The Liberals are in big trouble. The daily seat forecaster is now calculating a Conservative minority government (see link in left column). Stay tuned for an explanation later today.
(An incorrect posting was made earlier today, I apologize.)

Conservatives Not So Scary Anymore

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
It will be very interesting to see the results of today's seat forecast (for the article assessing the current forecast click here). There has been some interesting information coming to the surface in the polling data. For example, in an article on December 21 I wrote:

"My Conservative readers are going to hate me for this, but I think the voters are starting to believe that the priorities of a Conservative government are going to be, to a very large degree, the same as the Liberal government. However, delivery on those priorities will be consistent with a 'conservative' approach - i.e.: smaller government."

Well, my assessment seems to have been proven correct in a survey completed by Decima from December 29-31:

"In all 15 [policy] areas a plurality (minimum 42%, maximum 61%) felt that things would be no different if the Conservatives were to replace the Liberals after the election."

That is bad news for the Liberals, who want Canadians to believe that a Conservative government would negatively change Canada.

This same survey also showed that 52% of Canadians thought a Liberal majority was undesireable or unacceptable while 56% thought a Conservative majority was undesireable or unacceptable, that latter figure being the same for the NDP. So while Canadians would like a majority government, there is no consensus or which party Canadians could at least somewhat agree on as the government.

The hope for the Liberals is Ontario. In a variety of polls on a variety of issues it is the area that seems to lean in favour of the Liberals on the underlying issues. They are more likely to believe Canada is on the right track, they are more likely to think Paul Martin would make the best Prime Minister, they are more likely to think he has the best leadership skills, they are more likely to think a Conservative majority is undesireable or unacceptable, etc.

While the negative ads the Conservatives are now running are risky, I think negative advertising is what they need to do. Done poorly, negative advertising can backfire. Done properly, negative advertising can cause people to re-examine their voting intentions. If the Conservatives are going to win they need to shake Ontario up, and negative advertising may be the only way to do it. And for the Liberals, well they have been getting hit by negative ads left, right and centre. Okay, maybe not centre, but certainly from the left and right - particularly from the right. I am beginning to think that either the Liberal war room is asleep at the switch or they have a brilliant campaign plan that my feeble brain cannot comprehend. But they are going to have to run negative ads as well. Their ace in the hole has been the fear Canadians, Ontarians in particular, have of the prospects of a Conservative government. Some of that fear still exists, but most of it has subsided. Negative advertising could re-ignite that fear in favour of the Liberals.

Have the Liberals finally collapsed in Ontario? Have the Conservative's negative ads backfired? Perhaps today's seat forecast will give us a glimpse of the effects of these last few days.

Tuesday, January 03, 2006

Thank You Readers

I want to thank everyone who reads this site. You know, I make a few bucks here or there each day, but nothing enough to make this worthwhile - yet. It's strange, though, the satisfaction one gets in providing information that others enjoy or find valuable. I am at about 400 unique visitors a day right now after less than a month of blogging. That isn't much, but it is enough that I find this rewarding. So I hope you enjoy this site.

Seat Forecast Shows Deadheat - What Does It Mean - Part III

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
The seat forecaster - daily in the left column shows the race in terms of seats is now a deadheat. And it shows big increases for the NDP. How is this possible? Where is it happening? I will answers these questions in this article. (Part I deals with the Conservatives; Part II deals with the Liberals; Part III deals with the NDP.)

The first explanation involves the same warning I have made in the other articles, I need a poll with more significant breakouts so that I can run the comprehensive forecaster. However, NDP support is on the rise and here is the most likely areas where that is happening. First, they are seeing some increase in seats in Saskatchewan, which could mean Jack Layton's plea for NDP supporters to stay with the NDP this time is working. He felt that the switch of their supporters to third place Liberals in the last election cost them seats in the prairies and helped the Conservatives.

But a bigger increase in seats is coming in Ontario. In Northern Ontario they might gain a couple more seats, but the races are very tight. The same is true for a couple of seats in eastern Ontario. In total there are almost a half dozen Ontario seats that could go either way for the NDP. But the biggest potential breakthrough for the NDP is in Toronto. Half of their gains in Ontario could come from this area, and these gains are looking stronger than the half in the rest of the province. That is good news for the NDP, but the other half are so close that only a slight drop in NDP support in Ontario could mean they drop below 30 seats nationally.

So the summary for the NDP is that the reason they are doing so well in seats at this point is because there are almost a half dozen seats in Ontario where they are clinging on to a lead. They are definitely moving up in Ontario based on these latest poll numbers, but those half dozen seats or so are going to make the difference between a good increase for the NDP and a big increase for the NDP. Plus, there are another two or three seats in the rest of the country that are just as close. Shift only a few thousand votes from the NDP to the Liberals, a shift so small it would not even register in the national polling numbers, and the NDP could go from 34 seats to 27 in the blink of an eye. Does that sound like 2004 all over again?

Seat Forecast Shows Deadheat - What Does It Mean - Part II

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
If you have not already, click on the seat forecaster - daily in the left column and you will see that the race in terms of seats is now a deadheat (and that is updated each day). But what is happening on the ground for the Liberals? Where are they, excuse the pun, bleeding red? I will answers these questions in this article. (Part I deals with the Conservatives; Part II deals with the Liberals; Part III deals with the NDP.)

To truly answer these questions I need a poll with significant subnational breakouts so that I can run the comprehensive seat forecaster. However, I can still make some general assessments. Not suprisingly, the Liberals are down in Quebec. The good news for them is that if they are not at rock bottom they are close to it - at least in terms of seats. There is still a chance that they could lose another seat there if Bloc Quebecois support rises. Aside from that, any increase in support for the Bloc Quebecois from here on will only consolidate ridings they are already leading in, though increase support for the Conservatives could spell trouble. The real problem facing Paul Martin is that they are going to lose about twice as many seats in Ontario as compared to Quebec, and the bottom has not yet fallen out. The Liberals loses are primarily in southwestern and eastern Ontario. However, they are also set to lose nearly half their seats in Northern Ontario.

The real area for the Liberals to watch is the 905 belt. At this point the Conservatives have likely only come back in the 905 to the level they were at on election day 2004. However, they are again competitive in some Liberal ridings. Any further downward movement for the Liberals is likely going to mean the Tories are going to pick up seats in the 905 belt and it will likely be a cascading effect. Interestingly, while Toronto will remain a Liberal stronghold, based on the current numbers the NDP will be cracking that area. Even the Conservatives have an outside chance at a riding or two in Toronto - and one is not at all unreasonable.

Out west the Liberals are still looking at more seats in British Columbia. However, with negative momentum everywhere, including in B.C., that prospect may evaborate as election day approaches.

The saving grace for the Liberals is that the race has only just begun. There are two leaders' debates yet to come, most of the advertising money has been reserved for January, and the negative ads are about to come out in full force. What will the combination of these forces mean? Well, for the Liberals it means opportunity - and boy do they need that.

Seat Forecast Shows Deadheat - What Does It Mean - Part I

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
Click on the seat forecaster - daily in the left column and you will see that the race in terms of seats is now a deadheat. But what does that mean for the Conservatives? Where are they gaining seats and where are they losing seats in Canada? I will answers these questions in this article. (Part I deals with the Conservatives; Part II deals with the Liberals; Part III deals with the NDP.)

To truly answer that question I need a poll with significant subnational breakouts so that I can run the comprehensive seat forecaster. However, I can still make some general assessments. First, out west the Tories are not doing better than they did in the last election. In fact, they are doing worse. They are losing seats in British Columbia and the Prairies, Alberta excepted. The gains are coming in Ontario. They are likely going to increase their take in southwestern Ontario which, given their dominanance already in the rural area, means they are going to pick up a couple smaller urban ridings there. And, they are going to pick up more seats in eastern Ontario. The Conservatives are also competitive in a couple of ridings in Northern Ontario, but the races there are very close. But perhaps the biggest surprise, though the lowest payout for them, they have an outside chance of actually winning a seat in the heart of Toronto, the bastion of Liberal support. Add in a half dozen or so seats from Atlantic Canada and you have yourself enough of an increase to more than offset losses out west, and close in on the Liberals to boot.

The Conservatives negative ads also could not have arrived at a more opportune time for them. Negative advertising works, though it can be risky. With momentum their way these adds can shake free some people on the edge and move the Conservatives into minority government territory.

The Truth Hurts Seat Forecaster - IT'S A DEAD HEAT!

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
Check out the updated daily seat forecaster (link in left column). Wow, what a race it is turning out to be! I stayed up late correcting my initial numbers so I could post it there, instead of waiting until noon tomorrow (boy am I tired, and where are the Atlantic numbers on CTV's site?) Bookmark this page and then check back tomorrow when I will provide some analysis.

Monday, January 02, 2006

You'll click here, but you won't click on an ad?

Well, I don't mind too much. Enjoy.
(P.S.: The ads are right there ↑.)

The Liberals Have To Go Negative

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
[As soon as you see a new SES Research poll check here, I will have a seat forecast within minutes. Bookmark this page and keep checking back.]

In two previous articles (Is Liberal Support About To Collapse; Is Liberal Support About To Collapse - Part II) I predicted that Liberal support would collapse at a time when the mainsteam media were even predicting that the Liberals had "momentum". I called it then and now it is happening. The recent RCMP investigation has been the impetus for this (I do not believe the Klander slander had much if any impact). Based on what I described in those two articles I believe this drop for the Liberal Party is going to stick, at least to some degree. That is reinforced by SES Research's leadership index which shows Stephen Harper edging out Paul Martin on leadership, at least at a national level. Where there is hope for the Liberals is that while their support has slipped in Ontario, their lead is holding. Adding to that is the fact that Martin has recovered "best PM" status in Ontario in the SES Research data. He has also maintained that status in the Atlantic region, which means the Conservative Party's recent fortunes there are likely to face pressure, though how much is yet to be determined. Where there is hope for the Conservative Party is in British Columbia. With momentum for the Liberals downward in every part of the country, to various degrees, I cannot see how there can now be significant positive momentum for the Liberals there. I held off on my own predictions in B.C. because of the historic tendency of Liberal support to slip in B.C. during the campaign, and I expect we will see that played out in the next poll.

All in all, the Liberal Party does not seem to have much choice but to run negative ads. They have been taking a hit with negative ads from the Conservatives and NDP, and the RCMP investigation plays very well into that. Plus, those negative ads against the Liberals have been very good and very effective. They are getting hit hard and losing support. Without running negative ads of their own the Liberals are fighting this election with one hand tied behind their back.

Sunday, January 01, 2006

Conservative Negative Ad

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
[As soon as the next SES Research poll comes out I will post a new seat forecast (see links in left column), or once a more detailed poll comes out.]

So I got caught up in a CTV blog on the new Conservative ad. I kicked off the comments with, "Wasn't *that* a negative ad?" To which there were several shocked replies. Here is a sampling:

"If quoting a government's record, and showing a headline quoting the government is negative, then, I guess, this is a 'negative' ad."

"I don't agree that this is a negative ad. From a marketing perspective it follows the basics ... This ad is Marketing 101 all the way."

"How in the world is presenting truth 'Going negative'?"

"Since when was stating clear facts considered negative?"

I had quickly shot back a response that I thought was fairly good:

"I'm not saying the ad isn't truthful, but if I call someone fat and dumb can I say I'm not being negative just because they ARE fat and dumb?"

But I think Red Tory had a better response on his site because it better explained this ad is, in fact, a negative ad:

"I think that if people can’t admit that this is a negative ad then they’re entirely clueless as to the nature of negative ads. Some folks however figure you have to stick horns on your opponent, wildly demonize them and show them eating babies or mutilating kittens in order for it to constitute 'negativity.'"

Watch the ad again. It is very effective but, it does not provide one positive reason for voting Conservative. The whole ad is about negative reasons to vote for the Conservatives. That IS a negative ad. It is not a bad thing to run a negative ad, it is perfectly legitimate to point out serious flaws in a political opponent. And there have been negative ads that have been much harsher than this one, particularly in the U.S. But this is still a negative ad, and probably the most negative ad of the election so far.