Thursday, January 12, 2006

Turner Size Liberal Caucus

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
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UPDATE: From today's Globe & Mail:
The projections, which are calculated by running this week's Strategic Counsel poll of more than 3,500 Canadians through a mathematical formula, are that the Tories will win 152 seats on Jan. 23, followed by 74 for the Liberals, 60 for the Bloc and 21 for the NDP. There are 308 seats in the House, so a party needs 155 to form a majority. "Is a majority possible? Absolutely. Is it probable? We don't know yet," said Allan Gregg, chairman of the Strategic Counsel.

These numbers are VERY consistent with The Truth Hurts Seat Forecaster, which adds validity to my model. But The Truth Hurts Seat Forecaster is updated daily, so check back.
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Wow! The Liberals are in freefall. The Conservatives have basically stayed the same in the latest seat forecaster (see link in left column) but the Liberals are heading towards one of their worst defeats in Canadian history if this keeps up. And if you recall, I said to keep an eye on Harper's "best PM" numbers in Ontario - that this number would be an indicator of things to come. He has essentially stayed the same. I had predicted if that holds for a few days then expect the Conservative numbers to come down slightly in Ontario. However, the Strategic Council tracks the overall impressions voters have of the leaders. Stephen Harper's lowest rating this election in Ontario was when it started. His net favourable rating in Ontario is now at its high point and his net unfavourable rating is at its low point. These numbers will be good at predicting what will happen to Conservative support in Ontario. Mark my words, these are the numbers to watch over the next few days if you want to predict what will happen a week from now. Also good news for the Conservatives is that their support in Quebec outside of Montreal has gone from 29% to 33%. I must say, the rise in Tory fortunes in Quebec this election is nothing short of historic. And the Strategic Council's overall impression numbers for Harper started lower in Quebec than Ontario and now his overall impression numbers have risen so that they are better in Quebec than Ontario - even though his numbers in Ontario are now high. I find myself at a loss! Whether you are red, blue or orange, one must admit that this rise is shocking. Now I may be eating my words in a few days, but I do not believe that will continue. I expect those numbers to drop. The one hope my Conservative readers can cling to is that in politics or real life it is impossible to stop a train that is barrelling down on you. All you can do is get out of the way. If this is a steam roller sweeping across Quebec then say hello to a Conservative majority government.

The other advantage the Conservatives have is that the Liberals are doing so bad the only way the Conservatives could drop is if they tried - and even then. Right now, though, the NDP are the largest benefactor of the Liberal fall. The Liberals are in serious trouble, and most of it seems to be tied to the performance of Paul Martin.

Conservative hopes of a majority are binned on Quebec. The question to Ontario regarding the Liberals is, "Would you like to Turner-size that?"