Saturday, January 07, 2006

Tories Continue To Lead In Seats - Debates Will Be Critical

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
UPDATE: Province by province seat forecasts now updated.
I have reviewed several different polls this morning and we are definitely at a turning point in this election. The timing of the debates could not have been more critical. Voters are trying to decide what to do and these debates may give them either the answers they are looking for or the excuse to commit.

The recent CBC story regarding the Conservative's GST cut and income tax raise could not have come at a worst time. No matter which side of this debate you come down on, this is going to create some confusion among voters and the Liberals may be able to capitalize on that.

As promised, I updated yesterday's seat forecast (see link in left column) with a more comprehesive poll than the typical daily polls. It turns out the seat forecast model I have developed so that I can use the daily polls in place of the more comprehensive polls is very accurate - there was very little difference when I updated the seat forecast.

In the past I have been updating the seat forecaster once per day. With the way polls are coming out now I cannot guarantee that once it is update that will be it for the day. Today I just backdated a seat forecast because a poll came out late. And there are two or three polls coming out today. All I can say is to check back regularly for updates.