Wednesday, January 11, 2006

Third Worst Liberal Result In 100 Years

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Blog
I have updated my forecasters again (I have also added a time stamp so you know when they have been last updated). If the current numbers hold until election day, this will be the third worst seat count for the Liberals in 100 years. Even Paul Martin is in for a tight race in his own riding. And Quebec is getting more and more interesting each day. I would bet my last dollar that the Bloc will win, but there is a race on for second. I would have to check my history books, but this election could mark the first time the Liberals finished in third place in Quebec. There is still a way to go for that to happen, though. Also, do not discount the power of the new Liberal ads. Having to pull one is going to hurt them a bit, but within three or four days the effects should be seen. Negative ads are always risky, and these are the most negative of the Liberal ads yet. However, when they are done properly they do work. My own estimation is that they might be in time to have a large effect in Altantic Canada. For the rest of the country, the Liberals should have been running these ads one week earlier. They have the potential to stop a Conservative majority, but I think a Liberal minority is all but out of the question now.