Friday, January 13, 2006

Still On The Edge Of A Conservative Majority

NEW UPDATE THIS AFTERNOON

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog

I have updated my seat forecaster and it is remarkably similar to the numbers today by the Strategic Counsel. I mentioned yesterday that the Strategic Counsel tracks overall impressions of the three leaders and that Stephen Harper's numbers in Ontario are better now than they have been throughout the campaign. Looking at those same numbers today his numbers are stable. That is also true for a leadership score that SES Research tracks. I said before that if Stephen Harper's leadership numbers in Ontario do not increase over the next few days expect Conservative support to come down a bit in Ontario. And that is exactly what has happened. Essentially, the negative advertising of the Liberal Party is having an effect. However, that does not mean that the Conservatives will not win Ontario. I am not ready to make that prediction, but my prediction that their numbers will come down has come true.

Now, his leadership numbers in Quebec have had a remarkable improvement. Believe it or not, according to the Strategic Counsel, Quebecer's have a more favourable opinion of Harper than any other region of Canada. His unfavourable numbers are also lower in Quebec than anywhere else. His numbers with SES Research went up nominally today over yesterday. I still believe this is the province to watch. I also still believe that, like the real-estate market in the U.S., this is a bubble that is going to burst. That is not based on any of the numbers, only my gut instincts.