Tuesday, January 10, 2006

Martin's Seat Is At Risk

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
It was one of my readers that brought to my attention the close race the Riding by Riding Predictions (see link in left column) is showing for LaSalle Emard, which is the riding of the Prime Minister. In fact, the prediction is that the Bloc Quebecois will win this seat. First off, the same caution applies to the riding predictions - there is a margin of error involved and it is explained at the beginning of the predictions. Having said that, Martin likely is in the fight of his life here. For the Bloc to be polling at 53%, or so, in Quebec they must be getting close to 70% of the francophone vote. That percentage of the vote would translate into the estimated votes for the Bloc in LaSalle Emard, since that riding is just slightly above 50% francophones. With the federalist vote split between three parties it means a close race for Paul Martin.

I am not yet predicting that he will lose his seat. However, keep an eye on this riding on election night because if these numbers hold I certainly can predict that it will be close. Check out the other riding predictions, you may find something just as interesting.