Wednesday, January 04, 2006

Liberals In Big Trouble In BC, Ontario, Quebec - Part I

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
The Liberals are in big trouble (for Part I of this article click here, for Part II click here). The daily seat forecaster is now calculating a Conservative minority government (see link in left column). Here is what is most likely happening:

British Columbia:
The Liberals were hopeful of a breakthrough in B.C. Indeed, they seemed dependent upon holding their own in Ontario and relying on B.C. to make up for their loses in Quebec. But every premise that is based on is being blown out of the water. In British Columbia, to begin with, the Liberals are, at the present time, no longer looking at a breakthrough. In fact, they can count on a loss. But they needed gains in B.C. to make up for some losses in Quebec. Oh ya, Quebec ...

The Liberals knew they were going to suffer some losses in Quebec. In a secret memo that was released (I think it was released, I saw it anyway) the Liberals admitted they only had 10 safe seats and a handful where they might be competitive. They essentially wrote off the rest of Quebec. Well, rewrite that memo. Based on the latest data it appears likely that they only have eight safe seats and they are competitive in another two. What happened? The Conservatives happened. As everyone knows, Harper has been spending what seems like an unusual amount of time in Quebec these last few days. The Conservatives only have a slight chance in a riding or two, but that does not mean his efforts have not been paying off. There has been a shift in the federalist vote from the Liberals to the Conservatives, and to a lesser degree the NDP. So now the losses Liberals were expecting in Quebec are bigger than they expect and British Columbia is no longer able to offset them - indeed, B.C. will be adding to Liberal losses.

Stay tuned for Part II that will deal with Ontario as well as the Conservative's negative ads.