The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
(Update: Today's SES Research and Decima Polls added.)
With the rise of the Conservatives the Liberals are faced with challenges in Quebec that they did not anticipate. The Riding by Riding Predictions (see link in left column) show that the Liberals (updated) might win only one seat outside of west Montreal - the riding of Bourassa. And the race is close in this riding.
The Conservatives, on the other hand, are leading in three ridings and all of them are outside of Montreal altogether. That means the Tories are not just a threat to the Liberals but they are a potential threat to the Bloc Quebecois. As a result you can count on Gilles Duceppe avoiding any major confrontations with Stephen Harper, so that he does not give him too much profile. However, you can take it to the bank that Duceppe is going to try to portray the Conservatives and Harper as very right wing. In fact, I think it is likely there will be some American reference thrown in: like the Conservatives are the Republican party of Canada.
The forecasts and predictions will be updated later today once the SES Research poll is released. (Update: this SES poll now included in all forecasts and predictions as well as the Ontario and Quebec results from a new Decima poll - once I find the other regional results for this poll the forecasts and predictions will be udpdated again.)