The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
I have updated the daily forecaster and I will be able to do another update today to the comprehensive seat forecaster (see link in left column) later today, once I buy a Toronto Star - it seems there is a very good poll in there today. Yesterday's daily forecast has been updated to a comprehensive forecast based on new polling data. That means I also have new province by province forecasts as well. Todays updates to the daily forecaster using the SES Research data did not produce any significant changes. Tomorrow I will be publishing riding by riding predictions, and that should be of interest. The comprehensive forecaster algorithms are calculated riding by riding to determine the forecast for each province. It is the provincial forecast that is accurate, but I will provide the riding results tomorrow as information for you.
I do not expect any significant changes to the seat forecasts over the next few days. Futhermore, any changes that do happen I do not believe are significant. My read is that people are pausing. This is in part because of the debate coming up, but also because the Conservatives clearly have the momentum and voters seem to be deciding if that is okay or not.