Tuesday, January 10, 2006

Conservatives Edging To Majority

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
My seat forecaster has been updated and shows the Conservatives now with 137 seats, and I expect as I add other polls today that number will increase (I have just added the latest EKOS poll). Several days ago I said the dynamics were changing so that a Conservative majority was possible. I said that the Tories would win seats in Quebec and that they were now adding new wins in urban Ontario. When I made that prediction others, such as Warren Kinsella, said, "every Canadian who is not comatose understands that Harper can't form a majority government."

But now a Conservative majority government is possible because the changes in dynamics that I was measuring have happened. A majority Conservative government will occur on election day if the following three things happen:
1) Quebecers shift to the Conservatives in a signficant way. The Conservatives do not need to win the Province but they need about 15 seats, which would mean the Liberals should get 8 and the Bloc 52. That is a big shift, but it is possible.
2) The Conservatives need to maintain their lead in Ontario and actually pick up another 5 seats more than currently projected.
3) The dynamics of the election do not change in the final two weeks.

You read it here first. If you are comatose you should keep reading to be the first to hear about other changes that may happen in this election.