Alright, let's cut to the chase. Based on the various polls out there in the last few days, and their regional breakdowns, I have 'crunched' the numbers and have come up with the following seat breakout if the federal election were held today:
Liberals 121
Conservatives 102
Bloc Quebecois 62
NDP 23
While indicators on Paul Martin's leadership sunk by mid-campaign, the Conservatives have not been able to capitalize on it and Stephen Harper's numbers have only improved to about the same level as Martin.
Decima Research estimates that of those who leave the Liberals 33% go to the NDP and 26% go to the Conservatives. There are more dissatisfied Liberals (27%) that either move into "undecided" or "won't vote" than move towards the Conservatives. Taking all of that into account, here are results that I think will be closer to the actual results for election day:
Liberals 110
Conservatives 105
Bloc Quebecois 64
NDP 29
As you can see, the Conservative Party does not benefit to any large degree to a fall in Liberal support - primarily for the reasons I have outlined above. Their main stumbling block has been and remains their leader, even though Harper has improved. But now Martin is as much a stumbling block for the Liberal Party in this federal election. In Quebec Martin is a liability - he is yesterday's man. Outside of Quebec, and still telling, he is at best neutral and probably becoming a
liability. The reason this is still telling is because there was a time when he was seen as a big asset. But even outside of Quebec he has become yesterday's man. This blog was the first to bring this issue up, and it now appears that there is almost no realistic federal election
result that will save Martin's leadership of the Liberal Party.
There are only two things left that can shake up those numbers to the Conservatives advantage. First, a collapse in the Liberal vote precipitated by the poor leadership numbers of Martin. The one area of the country where a collapse is reasonably possible is in British Columbia. If that happens, accompanied by a sharp decline in Ontario and Atlantic Canada, it is likely that this federal election would produce a Conservative minority. The second thing that can shake up the numbers I have outlined above is the right ballot question - at least in theory. The impossible challenge for the Conservatives, though, is to find and then define a ballot question that moves votes away from the Liberals with more of those votes going to the Conservatives than any other party. Given the polling numbers to date, I am not sure such a question exists. The flip side of this is that the Liberals could successfully define a ballot question to their advantage. But even if that happens I think the Liberals are still going to lose seats.
The Conservatives challenge in this election remains what it always was: convince soft Liberals that a Conservative government would not be that scary and is, indeed, necessary. The challenge for the Liberals in this election is to rebuild Martin's appeal. Though I think it is
too late for that, expect a Liberal onslaught of ads showing Martin as captain Canada and Harper as the anti-captain Canada (mark my words on this one). The Bloc need only coast; they cannot build any more support and any support they could lose will be nominal at worst. Both
Gilles Duceppe and Jack Layton have been performing excellently as leaders of their parties. The NDP is doing okay on the whole and they have the best potential for movement of all the parties, if they could just get more election coverage. So in the end, we are left with a federal election with some amazing undercurrents but boring results.
But, I promised to
name names for you so here it goes.
Riding(s): Outremont Incumbent(s): Jean Lapierre, Liberal Prediction: Liberals lose to Bloc QuebecoisThe results of this riding will be a referrendum on Martin's leadership. It is one of the safest Liberal ridings in the country, having gone Liberal everytime since 1935 except for one exception in 1988. Francophones make up a large but minority segment of the riding and there is a large ethnic vote. All of this should add up to an easy Liberal victory. But that is not what I am predicting. There is no Liberal MP more closely associated with Martin than Lapierre. My prediction is that he will lose, and there will not be many Liberals feeling bad enough to wear black armbands afterwards.
Riding(s): Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, and, Hamilton Mountain Incumbent(s): Tony Valerie, and, no incumbentPrediction: Liberals lose to NDP in both ridingsHamilton East-Stoney Creek is another historically safe Liberal seat. But after massive support from Martin and his team, Tony Valeri defeated Sheila Copps in the nomination battle that occurred before the 2004 election. Within this riding, Tony Valeri is as closely associated with Paul Martin as Jean Lapierre. I cannot see how Tony Valeri can win the riding this time, particularly with Sheila Copps encouraging her supporters not to just stay at home but to vote against the Liberals. Had Valeri run last time where he lives, in the riding of Niagara West-Glanbrook, the Liberals would have won that seat (the Conservatives won it instead) and Sheila Copps would have easily won Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, both last time and this time. The fallout from this Liberal catastrophe (and I do not mean the potential election loss but everything that led up to this) is surely going to have an affect on the neighbouring riding of Hamilton Mountain. So I am predicting a Liberal defeat to the NDP there as well. While there are going to be many Liberals
upset with Copps after this, there are going to be even more
upset with Martin and his team for creating this disaster in the first place - a disaster that never had to happen.
Stay tuned for more riding by riding predictions. Each week I will publish one or two articles in which I give my prediction on at least two ridings in each article. A special link on my side panel will be created within a day that will lead you to the riding by riding predictions. When these predictions are published and for which ridings depends on the information I am able to get from my sources.
At this point the only safe bet in this election, aside from my three riding predictions above, is that Paul Martin's days are numbered. But of course,
who am I to say that.
The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
(The image to the upper left is from the Wikimedia Web site.)
The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
