Saturday, December 03, 2005

Riding by Riding Predictions

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
The predictions below are the estimated results if an election were held on 22 January 2005. You can also check out the Comprehesive Seat Forecaster and Daily Seat Forecaster. (For an explanation on these various models click here.)

If you do not agree with a riding prediction, please read this:
The Truth Hurts Seat Forecaster uses the latest polling numbers to calculate the total number of votes for each party in each region (there are several different regions within the model). It then distributes those votes riding by riding based on an expected voting pattern which is calculated by various algorithms. The voting patterns could be slightly wrong which could mean the Liberals will lose riding x, but the redistribution would probably mean the Liberals will win riding y instead. It is simply an attempt at transforming the percentage of the vote into the most likely seat totals. The riding by riding results below are from the worksheets of the model and are provided to you just as information.



Last Updated: 01/23/06 11:00:00 am








BRITISH COLUMBIA LIBERAL CPC NDP Bloc Green Other Hold/Lose
Riding Prediction





Lower Mainland






Abbotsford 20.6% 63.1% 12.0% 0.0% 2.3% 2.1%
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Burnaby-Douglas 33.4% 32.0% 30.4% 0.0% 2.7% 1.5%
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Burnaby-New Westminster 33.8% 32.8% 29.5% 0.0% 2.8% 1.1%
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Delta-Richmond East 32.7% 50.6% 12.3% 0.0% 4.5% 0.0%
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Fleetwood-Port Kells 29.9% 41.0% 24.2% 0.0% 4.5% 0.4%
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Langley 24.4% 52.9% 14.1% 0.0% 4.2% 4.4%
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New Westminster-Coquitlam 28.1% 38.0% 28.5% 0.0% 4.0% 1.4%
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Newton-North Delta 33.7% 34.9% 26.6% 0.0% 4.6% 0.2%
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North Vancouver 40.0% 41.0% 13.5% 0.0% 5.1% 0.4%
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Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission 23.3% 41.0% 29.7% 0.0% 4.3% 1.7%
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Port-Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam 27.3% 46.2% 22.5% 0.0% 3.0% 1.0%
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Richmond 44.1% 39.4% 12.7% 0.0% 2.9% 0.9%
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South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale 36.2% 47.3% 12.1% 0.0% 3.9% 0.5%
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Surrey North 29.1% 26.3% 38.1% 0.0% 2.5% 4.0%
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Vancouver Centre 42.2% 22.6% 28.8% 0.0% 4.9% 1.4%
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Vancouver East 28.4% 12.4% 52.9% 0.0% 4.4% 2.0%
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Vancouver Kingsway 42.4% 19.5% 33.3% 0.0% 2.6% 2.2%
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Vancouver Quadra 52.7% 29.8% 12.9% 0.0% 3.9% 0.6%
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Vancouver South 45.2% 29.2% 21.3% 0.0% 2.5% 1.8%
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West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea To Sky Country 34.7% 37.6% 19.8% 0.0% 7.2% 0.7%
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CANADIAN ELECTION 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS
CANADIAN ELECTION 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006
CANADIAN ELECTION PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006
Riding Prediction





Rest of BC






Cariboo-Prince George 18.9% 49.4% 26.0% 0.0% 3.3% 2.5%
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Chilliwack-Fraser Canyon 17.3% 56.3% 20.0% 0.0% 2.5% 3.9%
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Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca 34.9% 26.6% 31.2% 0.0% 6.7% 0.7%
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Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo 27.0% 43.0% 25.8% 0.0% 3.3% 0.8%
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Kelowna-Lake Country 27.5% 47.0% 18.0% 0.0% 6.1% 1.4%
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Kootenay-Columbia 17.0% 54.9% 23.3% 0.0% 4.8% 0.0%
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Nanaimo-Alberni 19.1% 41.8% 32.0% 0.0% 5.7% 1.4%
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Nanaimo-Cowichan 15.5% 35.3% 43.6% 0.0% 4.7% 0.8%
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Okanogan-Coquihalla 21.9% 52.7% 19.2% 0.0% 4.6% 1.6%
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Okanogan-Shuswap 23.1% 45.0% 25.7% 0.0% 3.7% 2.5%
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Prince George-Peace River 13.0% 61.5% 20.1% 0.0% 4.3% 1.0%
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Saanich-Gulf Islands 26.4% 38.0% 22.0% 0.0% 13.3% 0.3%
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Skeena-Bulkley Valley 20.7% 35.9% 36.7% 0.0% 2.6% 4.1%
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British Columbia South Interior 25.0% 12.4% 50.4% 0.0% 8.9% 3.3%
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Vancouver Island North 20.9% 38.3% 34.6% 0.0% 6.0% 0.2%
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Victoria 32.3% 25.2% 33.2% 0.0% 8.9% 0.4%
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SEAT PREDICTION 8 22 6 0 0 0
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ALBERTA LIBERAL CPC NDP Bloc Green Other Hold/Lose
Riding Prediction





Calgary






Calgary East 15.6% 61.9% 13.1% 0.0% 8.8% 0.7%
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Calgary North Centre 15.4% 54.1% 15.9% 0.0% 13.5% 1.1%
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Calgary Northeast 18.4% 64.5% 10.3% 0.0% 5.9% 0.8%
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Calgary South Centre 22.4% 53.1% 11.6% 0.0% 12.4% 0.5%
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Calgary Southeast 12.0% 71.9% 8.7% 0.0% 7.4% 0.0%
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Calgary Southwest 13.6% 69.7% 8.3% 0.0% 6.8% 1.6%
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Calgary West 22.2% 58.6% 8.9% 0.0% 9.6% 0.7%
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Calgary-Nose Hill 17.1% 66.4% 9.1% 0.0% 7.4% 0.0%
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CANADIAN ELECTION 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS
CANADIAN ELECTION 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006
CANADIAN ELECTION PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006
Riding Prediction





Edmonton LIBERAL CPC NDP Bloc Green Other Hold/Lose
Edmonton-Beaumont 27.0% 50.8% 15.2% 0.0% 6.7% 0.4%
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Edmonton Centre 34.4% 44.0% 12.8% 0.0% 6.3% 2.5%
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Edmonton East 25.1% 47.1% 19.7% 0.0% 6.9% 1.2%
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Edmonton-Leduc 22.8% 56.7% 12.7% 0.0% 7.7% 0.0%
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Edmonton-St. Albert 18.4% 58.2% 15.3% 0.0% 8.0% 0.0%
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Edmonton-Sherwood Park 18.7% 58.6% 14.5% 0.0% 8.1% 0.0%
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Edmonton-Spruce Grove 19.8% 61.9% 12.0% 0.0% 6.3% 0.0%
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Edmonton Strathcona 21.6% 38.8% 30.7% 0.0% 7.7% 1.2%
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CANADIAN ELECTION 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006
CANADIAN ELECTION PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006
Riding Prediction





Rest of Alberta LIBERAL CPC NDP Bloc Green Other Hold/Lose
Crowfoot 5.4% 80.1% 8.8% 0.0% 4.5% 1.3%
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Fort McMurray-Athabasca 17.5% 62.4% 13.8% 0.0% 6.3% 0.0%
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Lethbridge 15.7% 64.8% 12.8% 0.0% 3.2% 3.4%
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Macleod 8.6% 75.3% 8.3% 0.0% 7.8% 0.0%
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Medicine Hat 7.7% 76.2% 11.7% 0.0% 4.4% 0.0%
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Peace River 18.1% 55.0% 19.2% 0.0% 7.6% 0.0%
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Red Deer 8.4% 75.2% 10.0% 0.0% 5.6% 0.8%
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Vegreville-Wainwright 8.3% 73.6% 10.5% 0.0% 7.6% 0.0%
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Westlock-St. Paul 15.1% 65.6% 12.5% 0.0% 6.7% 0.0%
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Wetaskiwin 9.3% 71.5% 10.2% 0.0% 8.0% 1.0%
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Wild Rose 8.9% 70.6% 10.8% 0.0% 9.7% 0.0%
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Yellowhead 8.0% 68.1% 14.5% 0.0% 7.6% 1.8%
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SEAT PREDICTION 0 28 0 0 0 0
FEDERAL ELECTION 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS
FEDERAL ELECTION 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006
FEDERAL ELECTION PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006
PRAIRIES LIBERAL CPC NDP Bloc Green Other Hold/Lose
Riding Prediction





Saskatchewan






Battlefords-Lloydminster 10.3% 50.5% 19.2% 0.0% 5.2% 14.9%
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Blackstrap 23.1% 46.7% 23.8% 0.0% 5.9% 0.5%
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Churchill River 24.3% 46.9% 22.4% 0.0% 5.8% 0.5%
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Cypress Hills 12.9% 64.0% 15.6% 0.0% 7.5% 0.0%
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Palliser 18.2% 40.1% 35.7% 0.0% 4.7% 1.3%
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Prince Albert 17.2% 51.8% 24.7% 0.0% 6.4% 0.0%
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Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre 25.9% 40.1% 29.0% 0.0% 4.7% 0.3%
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Regina-Qu'Appelle 20.6% 40.5% 33.2% 0.0% 4.4% 1.4%
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Saskatoon-Humboldt 23.8% 38.2% 32.8% 0.0% 4.7% 0.5%
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Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar 11.1% 48.2% 35.0% 0.0% 5.8% 0.0%
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Saskatoon-Wanuskewin 24.0% 52.4% 18.0% 0.0% 5.7% 0.0%
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Souris-Moose Mountain 13.0% 49.9% 12.5% 0.0% 23.7% 0.8%
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Wascana 46.4% 30.2% 17.9% 0.0% 5.4% 0.0%
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Yorkton-Melville 10.3% 66.8% 17.8% 0.0% 3.6% 1.5%
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Manitoba LIBERAL CPC NDP Bloc Green Other Hold/Lose
Brandon-Souris 17.2% 56.3% 18.7% 0.0% 6.6% 1.2%
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Charleswood-St. James 29.4% 54.1% 11.2% 0.0% 4.4% 1.0%
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Churchill 29.6% 18.6% 32.5% 0.0% 6.2% 13.1%
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Dauphin-Swan River 14.5% 58.7% 21.5% 0.0% 3.7% 1.6%
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Elmwood-Transcona 12.2% 28.9% 51.8% 0.0% 4.6% 2.5%
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Kildonan-St. Paul 27.6% 43.3% 23.4% 0.0% 4.1% 1.5%
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Portage-Lisgar 12.4% 70.1% 9.0% 0.0% 4.5% 4.1%
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Provencher 17.6% 68.0% 8.8% 0.0% 5.6% 0.0%
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Saint Boniface 36.4% 37.3% 19.4% 0.0% 4.9% 2.0%
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Selkirk-Interlake 16.4% 52.0% 26.2% 0.0% 4.6% 0.8%
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Winnipeg Centre 26.3% 16.0% 47.2% 0.0% 8.5% 2.0%
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Winnipeg North 28.4% 15.1% 51.4% 0.0% 4.1% 1.0%
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Winnipeg South 40.6% 40.9% 12.2% 0.0% 5.5% 0.8%
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Winnipeg South Centre 36.2% 32.0% 22.7% 0.0% 7.8% 1.3%
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SEAT PREDICTION 2 22 4 0 0 0
CANADIAN ELECTION 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006
CANADIAN ELECTION PREDICTIONS 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 PREDICTIONS








ONTARIO LIBERAL CPC NDP Bloc Green Other Hold/Lose
Riding Prediction





Northern Ontario






Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing 39.5% 20.6% 34.1% 0.0% 5.8% 0.0%
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Kenora 32.0% 26.2% 36.3% 0.0% 5.6% 0.0%
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Nickel Belt 41.0% 16.8% 37.1% 0.0% 3.5% 1.7%
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Nipissing-Timiskaming 42.2% 34.1% 18.9% 0.0% 4.4% 0.5%
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Parry Sound-Muskoka 43.0% 32.8% 12.8% 0.0% 11.3% 0.0%
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Sault Ste. Marie 35.4% 20.6% 41.2% 0.0% 2.6% 0.2%
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Sudbury 42.6% 18.7% 32.0% 0.0% 6.5% 0.2%
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Thunder Bay-Rainy River 35.2% 25.0% 34.0% 0.0% 3.5% 2.3%
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Thunder Bay-Superior North 38.1% 19.9% 33.3% 0.0% 6.8% 1.9%
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Timmins-James Bay 38.0% 14.7% 44.2% 0.0% 3.1% 0.0%
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CANADIAN ELECTION 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006
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Riding Prediction





Ottawa LIBERAL CPC NDP Bloc Green Other Hold/Lose
Nepean-Carleton 39.0% 42.3% 11.9% 0.0% 6.0% 0.8%
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Ottawa Centre 32.5% 19.0% 35.9% 0.0% 11.3% 1.3%
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Ottawa South 40.0% 34.1% 16.7% 0.0% 7.5% 1.8%
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Ottawa West-Nepean 37.0% 37.6% 17.4% 0.0% 6.9% 1.1%
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Ottawa-Orleans 43.5% 37.1% 13.0% 0.0% 6.4% 0.0%
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Ottawa-Vanier 46.4% 21.7% 23.4% 0.0% 7.3% 1.1%
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Riding Prediction





Eastern Ontario LIBERAL CPC NDP Bloc Green Other Hold/Lose
Carleton-Lanark 27.8% 50.5% 13.8% 0.0% 7.9% 0.0%
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Clarington-Scugog-Uxbridge 31.3% 41.1% 20.2% 0.0% 5.8% 1.8%
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Glengarry-Prescott-Russell 36.3% 41.2% 12.3% 0.0% 8.1% 2.1%
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Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock 27.9% 44.2% 19.9% 0.0% 6.6% 1.4%
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Kingston and the Islands 43.5% 23.6% 22.3% 0.0% 8.8% 1.8%
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Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington 25.1% 48.7% 17.3% 0.0% 6.8% 2.2%
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Leeds-Grenville 26.8% 50.7% 15.0% 0.0% 7.4% 0.0%
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Northumberland-Quinte West 32.4% 39.5% 20.7% 0.0% 7.3% 0.0%
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Peterborough 31.7% 33.7% 26.5% 0.0% 8.1% 0.0%
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Prince Edward-Hastings 30.7% 42.6% 20.2% 0.0% 5.6% 0.9%
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Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke 24.3% 55.6% 15.3% 0.0% 3.4% 1.4%
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Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry 30.0% 45.1% 14.8% 0.0% 10.1% 0.0%
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CANADIAN ELECTION 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006
CANADIAN ELECTION PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006
Riding Prediction





Southwestern Ontario LIBERAL CPC NDP Bloc Green Other Hold/Lose
Cambridge 31.7% 41.6% 18.8% 0.0% 6.7% 1.2%
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Chatham-Kent-Essex 31.3% 45.6% 16.8% 0.0% 6.0% 0.3%
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Essex 30.3% 41.2% 22.9% 0.0% 5.3% 0.2%
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Guelph 39.1% 29.8% 19.0% 0.0% 10.3% 1.9%
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Kitchener Centre 41.7% 31.6% 18.5% 0.0% 7.6% 0.6%
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Kitchener-Conestoga 36.5% 39.7% 14.7% 0.0% 9.1% 0.0%
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Kitchener-Waterloo 42.4% 33.7% 15.1% 0.0% 7.9% 0.9%
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London North Centre 38.1% 31.5% 23.1% 0.0% 6.7% 0.6%
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London West 40.0% 35.9% 16.4% 0.0% 6.6% 1.0%
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London-Fanshawe 30.7% 31.6% 30.4% 0.0% 5.9% 1.3%
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Sarnia-Lambton 36.7% 34.6% 15.4% 0.0% 7.5% 5.8%
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Windsor West 28.1% 22.0% 44.5% 0.0% 5.0% 0.3%
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Windsor-Tecumseh 30.4% 23.9% 40.5% 0.0% 4.8% 0.4%
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CANADIAN ELECTION 2006 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006
CANADIAN ELECTION 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006
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CANADIAN ELECTION 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006
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Elgin-Middlesex-London 29.1% 48.6% 13.4% 0.0% 6.0% 2.9%
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Grey-Bruce-Owen Sound 30.4% 49.9% 12.1% 0.0% 5.7% 1.9%
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Haldimand-Norfolk 33.4% 47.3% 13.4% 0.0% 4.7% 1.2%
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Huron-Bruce 44.2% 35.9% 12.6% 0.0% 4.2% 3.1%
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Lambton-Kent-Middlesex 31.3% 46.4% 14.7% 0.0% 5.4% 2.1%
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Oxford 25.8% 49.5% 13.3% 0.0% 5.7% 5.5%
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Perth-Wellington 28.3% 46.3% 14.3% 0.0% 8.3% 2.7%
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Wellington-Halton Hills 32.5% 47.5% 11.0% 0.0% 7.4% 1.6%
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CANADIAN ELECTION 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS
CANADIAN ELECTION 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006
CANADIAN ELECTION PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006
Riding Prediction





905 Belt LIBERAL CPC NDP Bloc Green Other Hold/Lose
Hamilton Centre 39.2% 17.3% 36.4% 0.0% 4.7% 2.4%
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Hamilton East-Stoney Creek 42.4% 24.6% 27.5% 0.0% 4.2% 1.2%
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Hamilton Mountain 35.8% 33.6% 26.3% 0.0% 3.8% 0.4%
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Oshawa 33.7% 36.1% 24.4% 0.0% 5.5% 0.2%
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Welland 43.6% 28.3% 22.2% 0.0% 4.1% 1.8%
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CANADIAN ELECTION 2006 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006
CANADIAN ELECTION 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006
CANADIAN ELECTION 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS
CANADIAN ELECTION 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006
CANADIAN ELECTION PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006
Ajax-Pickering 49.9% 35.7% 8.5% 0.0% 5.9% 0.0%
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Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale 43.4% 40.0% 16.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0%
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Barrie 42.2% 41.9% 7.4% 0.0% 8.5% 0.0%
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Bramalea-Gore-Malton 50.2% 32.8% 10.6% 0.0% 5.9% 0.6%
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Brampton West 45.2% 42.2% 7.3% 0.0% 4.5% 0.8%
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Brampton-Springdale 49.1% 30.0% 14.3% 0.0% 6.4% 0.2%
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Brant 39.2% 36.2% 16.0% 0.0% 6.9% 1.8%
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Burlington 44.7% 40.3% 7.5% 0.0% 6.7% 0.7%
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Dufferin-Caledon 38.0% 44.1% 5.8% 0.0% 11.2% 0.9%
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Halton 47.7% 40.0% 5.7% 0.0% 6.6% 0.0%
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Markham-Unionville 66.7% 23.9% 6.1% 0.0% 3.3% 0.0%
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Mississauga East-Cooksville 57.4% 27.9% 8.3% 0.0% 3.9% 2.6%
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Mississauga South 51.7% 35.6% 7.4% 0.0% 5.2% 0.2%
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Mississauga-Brampton South 58.3% 26.0% 10.6% 0.0% 4.7% 0.4%
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Mississauga-Erindale 51.7% 35.8% 7.3% 0.0% 4.9% 0.3%
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Mississauga-Streetsville 50.3% 33.4% 6.6% 0.0% 7.0% 2.8%
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Newmarket-Aurora 49.1% 36.1% 6.9% 0.0% 5.8% 2.0%
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Niagara Falls 37.5% 42.1% 15.0% 0.0% 5.4% 0.0%
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Niagara West-Glanbrook 39.5% 43.1% 10.5% 0.0% 4.5% 2.4%
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Oak Ridges-Markham 51.5% 35.3% 6.1% 0.0% 5.1% 2.0%
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Oakville 51.3% 36.9% 5.0% 0.0% 6.7% 0.2%
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Richmond Hill 58.5% 26.3% 6.8% 0.0% 6.0% 2.3%
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Simcoe Grey 40.2% 42.7% 7.0% 0.0% 6.2% 4.0%
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Simcoe North 40.5% 41.4% 8.2% 0.0% 8.7% 1.3%
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St. Catharines 41.6% 37.7% 13.9% 0.0% 4.9% 1.9%
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Vaughan 63.1% 25.1% 6.2% 0.0% 4.5% 1.1%
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Whitby-Oshawa 45.3% 38.4% 9.9% 0.0% 6.4% 0.0%
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York-Simcoe 35.2% 47.4% 7.8% 0.0% 7.1% 2.6%
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CANADIAN ELECTION 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS
CANADIAN ELECTION 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006
CANADIAN ELECTION PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006
Riding Prediction





Toronto LIBERAL CPC NDP Bloc Green Other Hold/Lose
Beaches-East York 29.4% 15.9% 45.7% 0.0% 8.0% 1.0%
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Davenport 32.7% 11.0% 46.9% 0.0% 7.8% 1.6%
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Parkdale-High Park 25.4% 17.1% 44.5% 0.0% 12.1% 0.9%
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Toronto-Danforth 24.6% 6.8% 58.8% 0.0% 9.2% 0.6%
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Trinity-Spadina 28.0% 10.2% 52.5% 0.0% 7.9% 1.4%
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CANADIAN ELECTION 2006 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006
CANADIAN ELECTION 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006
CANADIAN ELECTION 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS
CANADIAN ELECTION 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006
CANADIAN ELECTION PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006
Don Valley East 38.2% 35.5% 19.2% 0.0% 5.8% 1.2%
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Etobicoke North 47.4% 25.3% 19.1% 0.0% 4.2% 4.0%
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Etobicoke-Lakeshore 30.1% 39.3% 21.4% 0.0% 8.9% 0.3%
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Pickering-Scarborough 40.2% 35.7% 16.5% 0.0% 7.6% 0.0%
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Scarborough Centre 39.8% 29.6% 24.6% 0.0% 5.7% 0.4%
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Scarborough Southwest 32.8% 28.5% 30.8% 0.0% 7.5% 0.4%
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Scarborough-Guildwood 40.6% 29.0% 23.7% 0.0% 6.1% 0.5%
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St. Paul's 40.6% 25.7% 22.8% 0.0% 10.9% 0.0%
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Toronto Centre 38.9% 18.4% 34.0% 0.0% 7.6% 1.0%
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York Centre 38.4% 33.3% 20.0% 0.0% 6.3% 2.1%
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York South-Weston 42.2% 19.1% 31.2% 0.0% 7.0% 0.5%
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York West 48.5% 15.3% 23.8% 0.0% 6.3% 6.0%
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CANADIAN ELECTION 2006 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006
CANADIAN ELECTION 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006
CANADIAN ELECTION 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS
CANADIAN ELECTION 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006
CANADIAN ELECTION PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006
Don Valley West 42.9% 37.3% 13.0% 0.0% 6.9% 0.0%
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Eglinton-Lawrence 42.9% 32.8% 15.6% 0.0% 8.4% 0.2%
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Etobicoke Centre 41.4% 37.0% 14.8% 0.0% 6.6% 0.2%
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Scarborough-Agincourt 47.8% 28.7% 16.0% 0.0% 4.8% 2.7%
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Scarborough-Rouge River 61.9% 19.0% 15.3% 0.0% 3.5% 0.3%
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Thornhill 38.2% 44.3% 10.3% 0.0% 6.2% 0.9%
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Willowdale 44.5% 30.8% 14.7% 0.0% 7.7% 2.3%
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SEAT PREDICTION 61 34 11 0 0 0
FEDERAL ELECTION 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS
FEDERAL ELECTION 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006
FEDERAL ELECTION PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006
QUEBEC LIBERAL CPC NDP Bloc Green Other Hold/Lose
Riding Prediction





West Montreal






Jeanne-Le Ber 23.0% 12.3% 18.6% 36.8% 8.0% 1.4%
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Lac Saint Louis 34.7% 26.0% 19.6% 8.8% 9.8% 1.0%
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LaSalle-Emard 36.2% 12.6% 13.4% 31.5% 4.9% 1.3%
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Mount Royal 48.5% 21.9% 15.1% 7.2% 6.2% 1.1%
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Notre Dame de Grace-Lachine 28.4% 21.6% 20.3% 18.8% 9.4% 1.5%
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Outremont 20.2% 11.6% 33.2% 26.3% 7.4% 1.2%
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Pierrefonds-Dollard 37.3% 25.0% 15.3% 15.0% 6.2% 1.2%
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Saint Laurent-Cartierville 42.3% 15.5% 18.9% 17.5% 4.6% 1.1%
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Westmount-Ville-Marie 27.9% 19.9% 28.7% 11.9% 10.6% 1.0%
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East Montreal LIBERAL CPC NDP Bloc Green Other
Ahuntsic 25.6% 12.1% 17.4% 38.6% 5.5% 0.8%
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Bourassa 31.6% 13.3% 12.0% 38.2% 3.5% 1.4%
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Hochelaga 14.4% 9.0% 14.8% 54.3% 5.9% 1.6%
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Honore-Mercier 28.2% 14.6% 12.0% 39.7% 3.8% 1.7%
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La Pointe de I'lle 13.2% 9.7% 10.5% 61.4% 5.2% 0.0%
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Laurier 8.6% 4.9% 28.1% 46.8% 10.4% 1.2%
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Papineau 22.9% 10.5% 23.3% 35.6% 5.0% 2.6%
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Rosemont-La Petite Patrie 12.3% 6.6% 19.7% 53.2% 8.0% 0.3%
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Saint Leonard-Saint Michel 40.5% 13.2% 18.1% 22.2% 5.2% 0.7%
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North Montreal LIBERAL CPC NDP Bloc Green Other
Alfred-Pellan 24.2% 12.3% 10.1% 48.3% 4.6% 0.6%
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Argenteuil-Mirabel 16.0% 16.6% 8.6% 47.6% 10.7% 0.5%
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Laval 21.2% 14.8% 11.5% 47.0% 4.6% 1.0%
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Laval-Les Iles 28.8% 16.6% 12.6% 35.8% 5.0% 1.3%
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Marc Aurele Fortin 15.7% 13.4% 9.7% 53.5% 7.7% 0.0%
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Montcalm 9.1% 12.8% 8.4% 63.2% 6.5% 0.0%
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Repentigny 10.4% 10.8% 8.1% 64.0% 5.8% 1.0%
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Riviere des Mille Iles 13.4% 14.7% 9.1% 54.5% 8.4% 0.0%
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Terrebonne-Blainville 11.1% 12.5% 8.5% 61.3% 6.7% 0.0%
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South Montreal LIBERAL CPC NDP Bloc Green Other
Beauharnois-Salaberry 21.4% 22.5% 5.7% 43.6% 5.8% 0.9%
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Brossard-La Prairie 27.7% 14.1% 12.8% 39.8% 5.4% 0.2%
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Chambly-Borduas 13.0% 17.1% 13.2% 48.5% 8.1% 0.0%
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Chateauguay-Saint Constant 18.6% 13.9% 9.9% 49.5% 8.0% 0.0%
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Longueuil 14.4% 10.8% 14.0% 54.9% 5.2% 0.8%
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Saint Bruno-Saint Hubert 17.3% 14.1% 12.0% 50.2% 5.3% 1.1%
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Saint Hyacinthe-Bagot 12.0% 23.5% 6.5% 54.2% 3.8% 0.0%
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Saint Jean 15.6% 18.7% 9.9% 50.3% 5.6% 0.0%
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Saint Lambert 21.3% 13.9% 13.0% 45.2% 6.3% 0.3%
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Shefford 23.5% 18.5% 6.9% 44.2% 6.9% 0.0%
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Vaudreuil Soulanges 27.8% 17.3% 10.0% 36.9% 7.1% 0.9%
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Vercheres-Les Patriotes 12.4% 13.6% 10.8% 57.9% 4.3% 1.0%
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CANADIAN ELECTION 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS
CANADIAN ELECTION 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006
CANADIAN ELECTION PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006
Riding Prediction





Rest of Quebec LIBERAL CPC NDP Bloc Green Other Hold/Lose
Abitibi-Temiscamingue 14.0% 17.2% 5.6% 60.2% 3.0% 0.0%
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Beauce 12.4% 46.9% 4.5% 33.8% 2.5% 0.0%
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Beauport 9.7% 41.3% 5.7% 38.5% 3.6% 1.2%
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Berthier-Maskinoge 8.8% 29.8% 4.8% 53.7% 2.9% 0.0%
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Brome-Missisquoi 18.2% 32.6% 4.2% 39.6% 5.4% 0.0%
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Charlesbourg 9.4% 39.2% 4.7% 43.5% 2.6% 0.7%
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Charlevoix-Montmorency 7.7% 32.3% 3.5% 53.0% 3.5% 0.0%
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Chicoutimi-Le Fjord 21.3% 17.5% 6.7% 51.4% 3.1% 0.0%
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Compton-Stanstead 15.1% 30.1% 5.1% 45.5% 4.1% 0.0%
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Drummond 8.1% 41.1% 2.3% 46.3% 2.2% 0.0%
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Gaspesie-Iles de la Madeleine 14.6% 20.9% 3.4% 57.7% 3.4% 0.0%
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Gatineau 19.1% 23.6% 9.6% 42.4% 3.9% 1.4%
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Hull-Aylmer 18.0% 24.2% 18.8% 32.4% 6.3% 0.2%
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Joliette 9.6% 18.5% 5.6% 62.0% 2.8% 1.5%
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Jonquiere-Alma 13.2% 14.9% 5.7% 57.5% 1.9% 6.9%
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Laurentides-Labelle 13.1% 17.9% 4.4% 60.2% 4.5% 0.0%
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Levis-Bellechasse 9.6% 45.1% 4.9% 35.6% 4.6% 0.3%
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Lotbiniere-Chutes de la Chaudier 7.0% 53.5% 5.7% 30.5% 3.3% 0.0%
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Louis Hebert 13.2% 35.8% 8.0% 38.9% 4.1% 0.0%
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Louis Saint Laurent 6.4% 61.0% 3.2% 25.6% 2.2% 1.6%
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Manicouagan 10.6% 14.3% 16.1% 57.5% 1.6% 0.0%
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Matapedia-Matane 13.4% 18.7% 8.1% 57.5% 2.3% 0.0%
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Megantic-L'Erable 15.2% 32.3% 5.7% 42.9% 4.0% 0.0%
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Nunavik-Eeyou 21.4% 15.4% 7.2% 51.8% 4.2% 0.0%
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Pontiac 13.2% 52.0% 7.3% 23.2% 4.0% 0.3%
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Portneuf 9.2% 49.0% 4.4% 33.2% 4.1% 0.0%
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Quebec 10.5% 29.6% 8.0% 45.8% 4.6% 1.5%
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Richelieu 9.4% 21.8% 3.2% 62.4% 2.0% 1.2%
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Richmond-Arthabaska 10.9% 28.6% 4.8% 51.7% 4.0% 0.0%
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Rimouski-Temiscouata 9.5% 24.3% 10.3% 53.1% 2.9% 0.0%
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Riviere du Loup-Montmagny 12.5% 26.2% 3.1% 55.7% 2.5% 0.0%
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Riviere du Nord 9.3% 16.2% 4.6% 65.8% 3.0% 1.1%
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Roberval 9.3% 23.8% 7.6% 55.3% 4.0% 0.0%
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Saint Maurice-Champlain 13.9% 27.3% 3.9% 51.3% 2.3% 1.3%
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Sherbrooke 14.4% 13.6% 5.0% 63.1% 3.9% 0.0%
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Trois Rivieres 11.2% 26.4% 5.3% 53.5% 3.6% 0.0%
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SEAT PREDICTION 7 7 0 59 0 0
FEDERAL ELECTION 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS
FEDERAL ELECTION 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006
FEDERAL ELECTION PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006
ATLANTIC LIBERAL CPC NDP Bloc Green Other Hold/Lose
Riding Prediction





Newfoundland






Avalon 49.9% 34.8% 12.7% 0.0% 2.6% 0.0%
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Bonavista-Exploits 40.0% 47.9% 9.0% 0.0% 2.0% 1.1%
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Humber-St. Barbe-Baie Verte 54.3% 27.7% 15.4% 0.0% 2.6% 0.0%
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Labrador 56.9% 23.0% 13.7% 0.0% 4.6% 1.7%
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Random-Burin-St. George's 38.7% 20.9% 37.2% 0.0% 3.3% 0.0%
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St. John's North 29.2% 45.8% 21.3% 0.0% 3.8% 0.0%
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St. John's South 28.1% 43.8% 25.6% 0.0% 2.6% 0.0%
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CANADIAN ELECTION 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS
CANADIAN ELECTION 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006
CANADIAN ELECTION PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006
Riding Prediction





Prince Edward Island LIBERAL CPC NDP Bloc Green Other Hold/Lose
Cardigan 44.1% 38.5% 11.4% 0.0% 5.9% 0.0%
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Charlottetown 40.2% 31.4% 20.5% 0.0% 7.4% 0.6%
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Egmont 46.0% 33.8% 13.1% 0.0% 7.1% 0.0%
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Malpeque 42.1% 36.9% 11.2% 0.0% 9.9% 0.0%
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CANADIAN ELECTION 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS
CANADIAN ELECTION 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006
CANADIAN ELECTION PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006
Riding Prediction





Nova Scotia LIBERAL CPC NDP Bloc Green Other Hold/Lose
Cape Breton-Canso 44.5% 23.7% 27.8% 0.0% 4.0% 0.0%
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Central Nova 20.2% 46.4% 28.9% 0.0% 4.5% 0.0%
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Dartmouth-Cole Harbour 33.8% 23.7% 35.6% 0.0% 5.6% 1.2%
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Halifax 30.9% 16.2% 44.7% 0.0% 8.2% 0.0%
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Halifax West 38.6% 23.8% 31.0% 0.0% 6.5% 0.0%
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Kings-Hants 37.8% 34.2% 19.6% 0.0% 6.5% 2.0%
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North Nova 20.1% 53.6% 19.6% 0.0% 5.2% 1.5%
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Sackville-Eastern Shore 22.3% 23.2% 48.5% 0.0% 4.4% 1.6%
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South Shore-St. Margaret's 24.7% 40.9% 27.0% 0.0% 7.4% 0.0%
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Sydney-Victoria 43.5% 18.6% 31.6% 0.0% 4.3% 2.1%
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West Nova 34.2% 37.0% 23.1% 0.0% 5.7% 0.0%
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CANADIAN ELECTION 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS
CANADIAN ELECTION 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006
CANADIAN ELECTION PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006
Riding Prediction





New Brunswick LIBERAL CPC NDP Bloc Green Other Hold/Lose
Acadie-Bathurst 26.2% 12.0% 57.6% 0.0% 4.3% 0.0%
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Beausejour 44.5% 32.2% 16.4% 0.0% 6.9% 0.0%
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Fredericton 38.7% 37.9% 19.2% 0.0% 4.2% 0.0%
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Fundy 27.6% 48.8% 17.2% 0.0% 5.4% 1.0%
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Madawaska-Restigouche 36.5% 26.9% 30.1% 0.0% 6.6% 0.0%
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Miramichi 39.4% 32.6% 20.1% 0.0% 8.0% 0.0%
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Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe 46.2% 29.3% 15.2% 0.0% 9.2% 0.0%
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St. Croix-Belleisle 24.9% 57.4% 12.3% 0.0% 5.3% 0.0%
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Saint John 35.5% 37.8% 20.9% 0.0% 4.0% 1.8%
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Tobique-Mactaquac 39.6% 44.5% 9.3% 0.0% 6.6% 0.0%
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SEAT PREDICTION 17 11 4 0 0 0
FEDERAL ELECTION 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006
FEDERAL ELECTION 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006
FEDERAL ELECTION 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006
FEDERAL ELECTION PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS
TERRITORIES LIBERAL CPC NDP Bloc Green Other Hold/Lose
Riding Prediction





Yukon 47.5% 21.6% 27.7% 0.0% 0.0% 3.2%
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Western Arctic 41.6% 17.3% 41.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Nunavut 49.7% 14.5% 15.9% 0.0% 4.3% 15.5%
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SEAT PREDICTION 3 0 0 0 0 0