Post your comments at the end of this articleIf you really want to know who is going to win an election then you need to examine predictive issues, not just who is winning at the moment. I have already gone over the leadership indicators in two previous articles (Is Liberal Support About To Collapse; Is Liberal Support About To Collapse - Part II). In this article I will examine some issues around the issues and campaign events of this election thus far (though I will leave crunching these numbers into a prediction for tomorrow).
Decima Research put a poll in the field from December 14 to 15 with questions about campaign events. Of the top five events, four of them belong to the Liberals, one to the Conservatives, and none to the NDP. However, the one that belongs to the Conservatives is negative, as is one of the ones belonging to the Liberals. Here is what I am talking about:
Awareness of Campaign Events (level of awareness):
US Ambassador's Criticism of U.S. Bashing by Liberals 84%
PM's Criticism of U.S. Policy on Climate Change 84%
Liberal Spokesperson's Beer and Popcorn Comment 79%
Liberals Effort on Climate Change 76%
Conservatives Same Sex Marriage Position 76%
(I must fall into the other 24% on the climate change event. Can someone fill me in on what the Liberals have done?)
The "beer and popcorn" comment actually had a big affect on undecided voters. It pushed 19% to lean towards the Conservatives and 11% towards the NDP. I think the NDP picked up support because that statement made the Liberals look insensitive to those needing the support. I think the Conservatives picked up some support because there are people who simply want the cash. But I think there was another reason for Conservatives seeing support lean their way because of this. My Conservative readers are going to hate me for this, but I think the voters are starting to believe that the priorities of a Conservative government are going to be, to a very large degree, the same as the Liberal government. However, delivery on those priorities will be consistent with a 'conservative' approach - i.e.: smaller government. On this issue it means that Conservatives also believe in daycare, but they believe the funding for it should be given directly to parents.
If you were wondering why the likes of Scott Reid and Karl Littler had smiles on their faces when the U.S. Ambassador criticized Paul Martin then this will interest you. Martin's team is smart enough to know a good thing when they hear it. According to Decima, 24% of undecided voters were more inclined to vote Liberal because of this event, while only 11% were more inclined to vote Conservative.
If you take all of the key issues (ten in total) and add up the percentage shift it caused among undecided voters here is the index I come up with (this method is not scientific, so it cannot be anything more than an index):
Liberals: 160
Conservatives: 105
NDP: 88
Bloc: 15
The same sex issue moved the most votes to the Bloc, and the NDP's commitment to crack down on private medical services moved the most votes to them.
You will notice that the event that drove the most votes to the NDP did not crack the top five for awareness. In fact none of the top five were events that largely benefited the NDP. I said it before and I will say it again, the NDP's biggest problem in this campaign is that they are not visible enough. As for the Conservative's index number falling short of the Liberals I do not believe they should be overly concerned. Their biggest achievement is showing to Canadians that they do not have a hidden agenda and that "progressive" is in fact in their policies if not in their name - but in a small government sort of way. None of the parties are going to see major shifts in their polling based on these issues. The real shift is going to happen once the ballot question(s) gets defined. The advantage for the Conservatives, though, is that their performance thus far will make it very difficult for the Liberals to make fear of the Conservatives a very effective ballot question.
I also want to point out that these awareness levels totally contradict the perception by many that voters would not be paying attention to the election until the new year. With issues getting higher than a 75% awareness level voters clearly are paying attention. I also want to let my readers know that tomorrow I will be crunching these and other numbers for predictions. In fact, I am going to get more specific in my prediction tomorrow and name names. So if you are involved in any of the campaigns you are definitely going to want to read my article tomorrow.
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