Post your comments at the end of this articleIf you read my article from yesterday (Is Liberal Support About To Collapse) then you know I have some dire warnings for the Liberals. Let me first explain the basis for this. Leadership indicators have a predictive value. If the leader of a party starts polling better on various leadership indicators one can expect that the party will start polling better as well. Likewise, if a leader starts polling poorly on leadership indicators he/she is going to start to bring the party down with him or her.
Now there is a reason why this article is a "Part II". Today's SES Research numbers are continuing with numbers like I pointed out yesterday. Stephen Harper continues to hold his lead in Ontario as being viewed as the best Prime Minister. That number has to have the Liberal war-room 'concerned' enough to be working extra overtime, if Paul Martin's famous rage has not sent them into that already. Martin's lead in that category in Western Canada has gone from 10 points to 3 points. As concerning as those numbers are for Liberals, there is more to be concerned about. Up until yesterday Martin held a 7 point lead over Harper on who has the best vision for Canada. That has changed to a 3 point deficit. A one day deficit a trend does not make; and, that change is within the poll's margin of error. However, that issue goes to the very heart of the Liberal strategy, which is that Canadians would not like a Harper Canada. If that Harper lead grows then the Liberals are in worse condition than even I thought. But even if he only stays at a statistical tie that should worry the Liberals. And now to the last piece of bad news for the Liberals that I will bring up in this article, yesterday Martin held a 23 point lead over Harper on SES Research's leadership index. Today's numbers show that lead collapsing to only five points. I said it yesterday and I will say it again today, much of what is necessary for a Liberal collapse on election day is falling into place.
Here is my advice for the various parties:
Conservatives
By luck or design, Harper's team should be given credit for running the best campaign thus far. Keep coming out with the softer-side policy statements. This strategy is slowly convincing Canadians that a Conservative government with Harper as Prime Minister may not be as scary as they have thought in the past. I would also start beefing up a visible team approach: start showcasing the team that could replace the Martin cabinet. It is still early in the race, though, so beware of the Liberal fallback: villianize Stephen Harper. But even though it is early, if the Conservatives can keep things even as they are until Christmas there are going to be a whole lot of families getting together over the holidays talking about how a Conservative government would not be that bad. That is going to be a massive asset in the second half of this campaign. Oh, by the way, please, please change those television ads - they are terrible!
Liberals
Martin has some smart people working for him, so I would be surprised if they have not already alerted themselves to the problems I have outlined and analyzed numbers I do not have access to in order to develop a solution. Since leadership numbers are predictive it means if they act now they can avoid a decline in Liberal support. One tip, have someone bring a tape recorder to every local all-candidates debate in Alberta and hope some Reform-cum-Conservative MP says something stupid. As for the Liberal ads; well, let's see. Martin's numbers are starting to drop significantly on leadership indicators and he appears in the Liberal ads how many times?
NDP
Be more visible in the campaign! I would have bet bottles of beer to popcorn kernels that Jack Layton would never have the problem of not being in the media enough. While all the mainstream media were saying that Martin won the english debate (what a simplistic interpretation) I was saying that Layton won and to watch for a bounce in the polls. The NDP have gone up each of the two days following that debate, according to SES Research. Why? Because they finally got to see more of Layton. As for the NDP ads: A- (that means excellent from me). However, variety is the spice of life. Give me some more!
Bloc Quebecois
No help from me. I hope you guys do as poorly as humanly possible - or worse (but given who your opposition is that probably means 50+ seats).
And to all of the parties collectively: everything before the new year is just part of the qualifying laps. It is still important, though, because it gives you position in the new year - when the race really begins.
The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
(The image to the upper left is from the cover of The Collapse of Liberal Empire, written by Paul Goldstene.)
