I said in my article yesterday that one of only two ways I can see the Conservatives overtaking the Liberals by election day is a collapse in voter support for the Liberals in B.C. A poll out today by The Strategic Council (for the CTV and Globe & Mail) confirms what I had expected.In a Globe & Mail article about the poll they write:
"New polls breaking down Canada's regions show the Liberals on the rise in British Columbia since the last election, particularly in the Lower Mainland around Vancouver, while the Conservatives have dropped substantially both in the Lower Mainland and the rest of the province. The New Democrats have also shown improvement in B.C. ... British Columbia could well provide the second-largest contingent of seats for the Liberals after Ontario. Nationally, the Liberals lead with 33 per cent support, compared to 30 per cent for the Tories and 18 per cent for the NDP. The Bloc Québécois has 14-per-cent support."
The Conservative Party is going to win more seats in Ontario this federal election, I am quite prepared to make that prediction. I have my suspicions that Martin's weak leadership numbers will actually result in a sharp decline in Ontario that will result in significantly more seats for the Conservatives, but that has not yet happened. The key area to watch is southwestern Ontario. Liberal support in Ontario could decline sharply because of a collapse in support in that area. The polls also show the Conservatives on a significant upswing in eastern Ontario. While that has been much of the talk lately I think people forget that the days of eastern Ontario being Liberal country are gone. The Conservatives already hold eight of the 12 seats in eastern Ontario that are outside of Ottawa. I think their ceiling there is probably 10, only two above what they already have. And they already hold half of the six seats in Ottawa. How many more can they take there? One?
The key to Ontario for the Conservatives is southwestern Ontario, a couple of seats in the 905 belt, and maybe four more from elsewhere. But that just does not cut it. And others have talked about a Conservative upsurge in Atlantic Canada, but I just do not buy that.
My readers read it here before this latest poll, and like my talk about Martin's leadership numbers this is going to become the next big topic for discussion. There will be no Conservative victory this federal election without a collapse of support for the Liberal Party in B.C.
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