The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political BlogI made the mistake in a previous article of saying that southwestern Ontario was a key battleground that the Conservatives needed to win in order to make a break through in Ontario. Boy was I wrong!
Developing my seat forecast model has given me a new perspective on things. The Conservatives only hold one seat in urban southwestern Ontario. But they are so weak there that they probably face a ceiling of a total of three. The area where the Conservatives can do well in southwestern Ontario is the rural area. But in the last election they won all but two of those ridings. One of those two is the riding of Huron Bruce. Incumbent Paul Steckle, a Liberal, has a lock on this riding. That leaves the Conservatives with a grand growth total in southwestern Ontario of three. Not exactly a treasure trove. And the Conservative Party can also write off winning absolutely any of the Toronto 416 ridings.
So where should the Conservatives put their focus. Well, for starters, the 905 belt - but not for growth. The seat forecast model shows them getting swept out of all but two of those ridings based on current polling in the 905 belt, down from seven. So that means they need to put some effort there just to be able to hold their own. And one of those ridings, Belinda Stronach's, is a write off. So if they really improve from where they are they will still lose one seat.
In eastern Ontario they might be able to pick up another three seats, but that would be their ceiling there. In Ottawa the Conservatives have one seat and have an excellent chance of picking up another three. But that is it.
In Northern Ontario, where the Conservatives are shut-out, they are fighting in three close races. With an outside chance of a fourth. The north of Ontario may be an overlooked source of seats for the Conservative Party.
So if everything goes really well for the Conservatives in Ontario, including this recent RCMP investigation, they can add another nine seats there. Nine seats means a great deal given that we are talking about a minority government. And the Conservatives recent potential breakthrough in Atlantic Canada adds to that. But net that out with the loses in British Columbia, and to a lesser but more certain degree Saskatchewan, and the Conservatives seem to be running as fast as they can only to stay still.
Check back tomorrow (Friday) for an update to the riding by riding predictions to include many Ontario ridings.
