Saturday, December 31, 2005

Prime Minister Stephen Harper?

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
With no poll out today I ran a possible scenario to see what the outcome would be. I decreased the Liberal vote in Ontario by three percentage points. I gave two percentage points to the Conservatives and one percentage point to the NDP. The result was a loss of 11 seats for the Liberals, a gain of eight seats for the Conservatives and a gain of three seats for the NDP. Such a shift, if it held to election day, could mean Stephen Harper would become the next Prime Minister of Canada, with perhaps two more seats than the Liberals.

All of this is very preliminary. The recent SES Research poll could be a temporary shift or even a "20th" poll, but I doubt it. The other problem, though, is that this is based on the daily forecaster because the regional data of the most recent poll, an SES Research poll that showed the Liberal lead over the Conservatives being narrowed to one percentage point, is not enough for me to use in the comprehensive forecaster, and the daily forecaster is not as sophisticated as the comprehensive forecaster (the latter being better able to pick up changes in voting patterns). But I think the race is definitely tightening up, and Ontario remains the most important battleground. (I will be able to provide the next forecast as soon as the next poll comes out.)

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog

Friday, December 30, 2005

Explanation On Forecasters And Predictions

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
The Truth Hurts Seat Forecaster - Comprehesive is based on more precise data but the data is only updated once per week (or as the required polling data is made available). A "*C" in the national forecasts indicates this forecast is a comprehensive forecast. Algorithms have been developed based on the voting patters of the previous election. These voting patterns are then updated with the most recent polling data that includes significant sub-national data.

The Truth Hurts Seat Forecaster - Daily is based on less precise data but the data is updated daily (or as the required polling data is made available). A "*D" in the national forecasts indicates this forecast is a daily forecast. Voting patterns are established using the latest The Truth Hurts Seat Forecaster - Comprehensive. These voting patters are then updated with the most recent polling data that includes data on the four regions of Canada.

Riding by Riding Predictions are derived from The Truth Hurts Seat Forecaster. They are less accurate than the forecasters and are therefore called predictions. In order to maximize accuracy, the forecasters calculate results riding by riding. The information provided in the Riding by Riding Predictions are from the worksheets of the forecasters. Since these predictions are less accurate they are really being provided for information only.

Multiple Polls are used if they are available (up to the three most recent polls). However, they are not simply added and then averaged. Instead, three different adjustments are made. First, the polls are weighted according to their margin of error. Greater weighting is provided to polls with a lower margin of error. Second, older polls are discounted. A poll that is one day older than another is not discounted at all. A poll that is four days older is significantly discounted. And a poll that is five days older than the most recent poll is not used at all. And lastly, a poll may be excluded, or discounted, if it was not in the field after a seminal event and another poll is available that was. One exception to the above is that some polls cannot be completely integrated as outlined above. In those cases only certain data elements can be used.

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog

How Will Your Riding Vote: Riding by Riding Predictions

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
The Riding by Riding predictions (see link in left column under "2006 Federal Election") have been updated to include about 2/3 of the Ontario ridings. A threshold of 45% is presently being used before a prediction is made, which accounts for 1/3 not yet having a prediction. That threshold will be lowered as the election approaches. Even so, the results are telling of an election similar to the one held last time. However, the ridings without a prediction could still swing differently, and the areas where there are few riding predictions is also telling. One conversion that is presently being called is the riding of Newmarket-Aurora where the riding will do as their MP, Belinda Stronach, and switch from the Conservatives to the Liberals.

Thursday, December 29, 2005

Battleground Ontario Has Little To Offer Conservatives

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
I made the mistake in a previous article of saying that southwestern Ontario was a key battleground that the Conservatives needed to win in order to make a break through in Ontario. Boy was I wrong!

Developing my seat forecast model has given me a new perspective on things. The Conservatives only hold one seat in urban southwestern Ontario. But they are so weak there that they probably face a ceiling of a total of three. The area where the Conservatives can do well in southwestern Ontario is the rural area. But in the last election they won all but two of those ridings. One of those two is the riding of Huron Bruce. Incumbent Paul Steckle, a Liberal, has a lock on this riding. That leaves the Conservatives with a grand growth total in southwestern Ontario of three. Not exactly a treasure trove. And the Conservative Party can also write off winning absolutely any of the Toronto 416 ridings.

So where should the Conservatives put their focus. Well, for starters, the 905 belt - but not for growth. The seat forecast model shows them getting swept out of all but two of those ridings based on current polling in the 905 belt, down from seven. So that means they need to put some effort there just to be able to hold their own. And one of those ridings, Belinda Stronach's, is a write off. So if they really improve from where they are they will still lose one seat.

In eastern Ontario they might be able to pick up another three seats, but that would be their ceiling there. In Ottawa the Conservatives have one seat and have an excellent chance of picking up another three. But that is it.

In Northern Ontario, where the Conservatives are shut-out, they are fighting in three close races. With an outside chance of a fourth. The north of Ontario may be an overlooked source of seats for the Conservative Party.

So if everything goes really well for the Conservatives in Ontario, including this recent RCMP investigation, they can add another nine seats there. Nine seats means a great deal given that we are talking about a minority government. And the Conservatives recent potential breakthrough in Atlantic Canada adds to that. But net that out with the loses in British Columbia, and to a lesser but more certain degree Saskatchewan, and the Conservatives seem to be running as fast as they can only to stay still.

Check back tomorrow (Friday) for an update to the riding by riding predictions to include many Ontario ridings.

Impact of Conservative Gain In Atlantic Canada

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
A recent poll by SES Research shows the Conservatives making significant gains in Atlantic Canada. Using these numbers and The Truth Hurts seat forecast model, this improvement would mean an additional two seats for the Conservatives in Atlantic Canada, both taken from the Liberals. To see more detailed results of the model click an option under "2006 Federal Election" in the left column. This recent SES Research poll has not been included.

Wednesday, December 28, 2005

Liberals Gaining Seats Nationally, Conservatives Losing

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
The model is complete! And I can hear some of you screaming now, because it shows the Liberals with a net gain of seven seats and the Conservatives with a loss of 15. Let's see if I can explain this.

Let me start with Ontario, since that is the last model I built. I could have published the numbers three hours earlier than I did for Ontario. However, I went over them thoroughly to make sure they are correct. If one looks at the polling data, the Conservatives have seen some increase, but nothing that signficant. It does result in a minor increase in the number of seats for the Conservative Party. Most of the talk in Ontario for the Conservatives has been based on the expectations of increased seats in southwestern Ontario. However, those numbers have not moved significantly yet. So far, it is just expectations. Also, the Liberals take a few seats away from the NDP which offsets their losses to the Conservatives. However, I suspect that the NDP numbers, which went down in recent polling, will bounce back up. So even if the Conservatives do not make any further gains one can expect that the Liberals will still lose seats in Ontario by election day.

Now let me go all the way over to the west coast - British Columbia. There has been some buzz about the Liberals doing well here, but no one has really talked about the implications of this. Well, it is significant. According to recent polls the Liberals are doing well throughout the entire province. That means big gains for the Liberals at the expense of the Conservatives. In fact, the Liberals gain more seats here than they lose in Quebec.

Speaking of Quebec, while Liberal support has declined there are several seats which are nearly impossible for the Bloc Quebecois to win. I have analyzed the numbers and 14 seats is a reasonable number for the Liberals given their current polling data. Indeed, further analysis shows that it would be incredibly difficult for the Liberals to drop below 12 seats, which is only a loss of an additional two.

In the Praires we see the Liberals basically staying the same. However, the NDP are regaining seats they lost last time. Jack Layton has made much about how Conservatives were able to defeat NDP candidates because strategic voting went to the third place Liberals. It seems he has been able to convince these voters to come back to the NDP which will allow them to regain those seats. But that means loses for the Conservatives.

There are no changes for any of the parties in Atlantic Canada.

All in all, I think because Stephen Harper has very successfully set most of the agenda for the election campaign many pundits believe he is winning. However, polling on the events and issues of the campaign has actually shown that it is the Liberals that are swaying more undecided on the events and issues thus far (see The Truth Hurts article on this for specifics).

The Truth Hurts announced in a previous article that if the Conservatives are to pull ahead they must win back British Columbia and make a breakthrough in southwestern Ontario. Not enough attention has been put on the implications of these two areas. With the forecast by The Truth Hurts one can now see exactly what those implications are.

Liberals To Break Even In Ontario

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
Based on The Truth Hurts seat forecast model (the forecasts are available from the link in the left column below "2006 Federal Election"), the Liberals may keep the same number of seats in Ontario as they had last election. The forecast model is based on the most recent polls. In those recent polls Liberal support has not moved significantly from the last election and there has also be a decline recently in NDP polling numbers. So, while the Conservatives gain a few seats because of their increased polling numbers, the Liberals steal enough seats away from a weaker NDP that they break even - and the NDP lose overall. Some expect this is only a temporary decline in NDP support. Additionally, many are expecting the Conservatives to make further breakthroughs in Ontario by election day. If these two events happen then there would be a significant drop in the number of seats for the Liberals.

Tuesday, December 27, 2005

Riding By Riding Predictions Updated

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
The Riding by Riding Predictions (see link in the left column below "2006 Federal Election") has been updated to include predictions on 61 different Quebec ridings.

Liberals Set For Big Loss In Quebec

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
Based on The Truth Hurts seat forecast model (the forecasts are available from the link in the left column below "2006 Federal Election"), the Liberals are heading for a big loss in Quebec. If the election were held today the model forecasts that the Liberals would win only 14 seats in the province.

Forecast Model Updated

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
The Truth Hurts forecast model has been updated to include forecasts for Quebec.

Monday, December 26, 2005

NDP To Double Seats In Saskatchewan/Manitoba

In what may be a reversal of the strategic voting in the last election, The Truth Hurts seat forecast model (the forecasts are available from the link in the left column below "2006 Federal Election") calculates that the NDP are set to increase their total number of seats in Manitoba and Saskatchewan to eight, based on current polling data. Click the link for complete results.

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog

Sunday, December 25, 2005

Liberals Set For Big Win In British Columbia

Based on The Truth Hurts seat forecast model (the forecasts are available from the link in the left column below "2006 Federal Election"), the Liberals have an opportunity for a big win in British Columbia. If the election were held today the model forecasts that the Liberals would win 20 seats in the province.

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog

Friday, December 23, 2005

Conservatives Need B.C. And Southwestern Ontario

I said in my article yesterday that one of only two ways I can see the Conservatives overtaking the Liberals by election day is a collapse in voter support for the Liberals in B.C. A poll out today by The Strategic Council (for the CTV and Globe & Mail) confirms what I had expected.

In a Globe & Mail article about the poll they write:

"New polls breaking down Canada's regions show the Liberals on the rise in British Columbia since the last election, particularly in the Lower Mainland around Vancouver, while the Conservatives have dropped substantially both in the Lower Mainland and the rest of the province. The New Democrats have also shown improvement in B.C. ... British Columbia could well provide the second-largest contingent of seats for the Liberals after Ontario. Nationally, the Liberals lead with 33 per cent support, compared to 30 per cent for the Tories and 18 per cent for the NDP. The Bloc Québécois has 14-per-cent support."

The Conservative Party is going to win more seats in Ontario this federal election, I am quite prepared to make that prediction. I have my suspicions that Martin's weak leadership numbers will actually result in a sharp decline in Ontario that will result in significantly more seats for the Conservatives, but that has not yet happened. The key area to watch is southwestern Ontario. Liberal support in Ontario could decline sharply because of a collapse in support in that area. The polls also show the Conservatives on a significant upswing in eastern Ontario. While that has been much of the talk lately I think people forget that the days of eastern Ontario being Liberal country are gone. The Conservatives already hold eight of the 12 seats in eastern Ontario that are outside of Ottawa. I think their ceiling there is probably 10, only two above what they already have. And they already hold half of the six seats in Ottawa. How many more can they take there? One?

The key to Ontario for the Conservatives is southwestern Ontario, a couple of seats in the 905 belt, and maybe four more from elsewhere. But that just does not cut it. And others have talked about a Conservative upsurge in Atlantic Canada, but I just do not buy that.

My readers read it here before this latest poll, and like my talk about Martin's leadership numbers this is going to become the next big topic for discussion. There will be no Conservative victory this federal election without a collapse of support for the Liberal Party in B.C.

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog

Thursday, December 22, 2005

The Truth Hurts: Paul Martin Is Yesterday's Man

Alright, let's cut to the chase. Based on the various polls out there in the last few days, and their regional breakdowns, I have 'crunched' the numbers and have come up with the following seat breakout if the federal election were held today:
Liberals 121
Conservatives 102
Bloc Quebecois 62
NDP 23

While indicators on Paul Martin's leadership sunk by mid-campaign, the Conservatives have not been able to capitalize on it and Stephen Harper's numbers have only improved to about the same level as Martin. Decima Research estimates that of those who leave the Liberals 33% go to the NDP and 26% go to the Conservatives. There are more dissatisfied Liberals (27%) that either move into "undecided" or "won't vote" than move towards the Conservatives. Taking all of that into account, here are results that I think will be closer to the actual results for election day:
Liberals 110
Conservatives 105
Bloc Quebecois 64
NDP 29

As you can see, the Conservative Party does not benefit to any large degree to a fall in Liberal support - primarily for the reasons I have outlined above. Their main stumbling block has been and remains their leader, even though Harper has improved. But now Martin is as much a stumbling block for the Liberal Party in this federal election. In Quebec Martin is a liability - he is yesterday's man. Outside of Quebec, and still telling, he is at best neutral and probably becoming a liability. The reason this is still telling is because there was a time when he was seen as a big asset. But even outside of Quebec he has become yesterday's man. This blog was the first to bring this issue up, and it now appears that there is almost no realistic federal election result that will save Martin's leadership of the Liberal Party.

There are only two things left that can shake up those numbers to the Conservatives advantage. First, a collapse in the Liberal vote precipitated by the poor leadership numbers of Martin. The one area of the country where a collapse is reasonably possible is in British Columbia. If that happens, accompanied by a sharp decline in Ontario and Atlantic Canada, it is likely that this federal election would produce a Conservative minority. The second thing that can shake up the numbers I have outlined above is the right ballot question - at least in theory. The impossible challenge for the Conservatives, though, is to find and then define a ballot question that moves votes away from the Liberals with more of those votes going to the Conservatives than any other party. Given the polling numbers to date, I am not sure such a question exists. The flip side of this is that the Liberals could successfully define a ballot question to their advantage. But even if that happens I think the Liberals are still going to lose seats.

The Conservatives challenge in this election remains what it always was: convince soft Liberals that a Conservative government would not be that scary and is, indeed, necessary. The challenge for the Liberals in this election is to rebuild Martin's appeal. Though I think it is too late for that, expect a Liberal onslaught of ads showing Martin as captain Canada and Harper as the anti-captain Canada (mark my words on this one). The Bloc need only coast; they cannot build any more support and any support they could lose will be nominal at worst. Both Gilles Duceppe and Jack Layton have been performing excellently as leaders of their parties. The NDP is doing okay on the whole and they have the best potential for movement of all the parties, if they could just get more election coverage. So in the end, we are left with a federal election with some amazing undercurrents but boring results.

But, I promised to name names for you so here it goes.

Riding(s): Outremont
Incumbent(s): Jean Lapierre, Liberal
Prediction: Liberals lose to Bloc Quebecois
The results of this riding will be a referrendum on Martin's leadership. It is one of the safest Liberal ridings in the country, having gone Liberal everytime since 1935 except for one exception in 1988. Francophones make up a large but minority segment of the riding and there is a large ethnic vote. All of this should add up to an easy Liberal victory. But that is not what I am predicting. There is no Liberal MP more closely associated with Martin than Lapierre. My prediction is that he will lose, and there will not be many Liberals feeling bad enough to wear black armbands afterwards.

Riding(s): Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, and, Hamilton Mountain
Incumbent(s): Tony Valerie, and, no incumbent
Prediction: Liberals lose to NDP in both ridings
Hamilton East-Stoney Creek is another historically safe Liberal seat. But after massive support from Martin and his team, Tony Valeri defeated Sheila Copps in the nomination battle that occurred before the 2004 election. Within this riding, Tony Valeri is as closely associated with Paul Martin as Jean Lapierre. I cannot see how Tony Valeri can win the riding this time, particularly with Sheila Copps encouraging her supporters not to just stay at home but to vote against the Liberals. Had Valeri run last time where he lives, in the riding of Niagara West-Glanbrook, the Liberals would have won that seat (the Conservatives won it instead) and Sheila Copps would have easily won Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, both last time and this time. The fallout from this Liberal catastrophe (and I do not mean the potential election loss but everything that led up to this) is surely going to have an affect on the neighbouring riding of Hamilton Mountain. So I am predicting a Liberal defeat to the NDP there as well. While there are going to be many Liberals upset with Copps after this, there are going to be even more upset with Martin and his team for creating this disaster in the first place - a disaster that never had to happen.

Stay tuned for more riding by riding predictions. Each week I will publish one or two articles in which I give my prediction on at least two ridings in each article. A special link on my side panel will be created within a day that will lead you to the riding by riding predictions. When these predictions are published and for which ridings depends on the information I am able to get from my sources.

At this point the only safe bet in this election, aside from my three riding predictions above, is that Paul Martin's days are numbered. But of course, who am I to say that.

The Truth Hurts
: Canadian Political Blog
(The image to the upper left is from the Wikimedia Web site.)

Wednesday, December 21, 2005

The Issues and Events of the Federal Election

Post your comments at the end of this article
If you really want to know who is going to win an election then you need to examine predictive issues, not just who is winning at the moment. I have already gone over the leadership indicators in two previous articles (Is Liberal Support About To Collapse; Is Liberal Support About To Collapse - Part II). In this article I will examine some issues around the issues and campaign events of this election thus far (though I will leave crunching these numbers into a prediction for tomorrow).

Decima Research put a poll in the field from December 14 to 15 with questions about campaign events. Of the top five events, four of them belong to the Liberals, one to the Conservatives, and none to the NDP. However, the one that belongs to the Conservatives is negative, as is one of the ones belonging to the Liberals. Here is what I am talking about:

Awareness of Campaign Events (level of awareness):
US Ambassador's Criticism of U.S. Bashing by Liberals 84%
PM's Criticism of U.S. Policy on Climate Change 84%
Liberal Spokesperson's Beer and Popcorn Comment 79%
Liberals Effort on Climate Change 76%
Conservatives Same Sex Marriage Position 76%
(I must fall into the other 24% on the climate change event. Can someone fill me in on what the Liberals have done?)

The "beer and popcorn" comment actually had a big affect on undecided voters. It pushed 19% to lean towards the Conservatives and 11% towards the NDP. I think the NDP picked up support because that statement made the Liberals look insensitive to those needing the support. I think the Conservatives picked up some support because there are people who simply want the cash. But I think there was another reason for Conservatives seeing support lean their way because of this. My Conservative readers are going to hate me for this, but I think the voters are starting to believe that the priorities of a Conservative government are going to be, to a very large degree, the same as the Liberal government. However, delivery on those priorities will be consistent with a 'conservative' approach - i.e.: smaller government. On this issue it means that Conservatives also believe in daycare, but they believe the funding for it should be given directly to parents.

If you were wondering why the likes of Scott Reid and Karl Littler had smiles on their faces when the U.S. Ambassador criticized Paul Martin then this will interest you. Martin's team is smart enough to know a good thing when they hear it. According to Decima, 24% of undecided voters were more inclined to vote Liberal because of this event, while only 11% were more inclined to vote Conservative.

If you take all of the key issues (ten in total) and add up the percentage shift it caused among undecided voters here is the index I come up with (this method is not scientific, so it cannot be anything more than an index):
Liberals: 160
Conservatives: 105
NDP: 88
Bloc: 15

The same sex issue moved the most votes to the Bloc, and the NDP's commitment to crack down on private medical services moved the most votes to them.

You will notice that the event that drove the most votes to the NDP did not crack the top five for awareness. In fact none of the top five were events that largely benefited the NDP. I said it before and I will say it again, the NDP's biggest problem in this campaign is that they are not visible enough. As for the Conservative's index number falling short of the Liberals I do not believe they should be overly concerned. Their biggest achievement is showing to Canadians that they do not have a hidden agenda and that "progressive" is in fact in their policies if not in their name - but in a small government sort of way. None of the parties are going to see major shifts in their polling based on these issues. The real shift is going to happen once the ballot question(s) gets defined. The advantage for the Conservatives, though, is that their performance thus far will make it very difficult for the Liberals to make fear of the Conservatives a very effective ballot question.

I also want to point out that these awareness levels totally contradict the perception by many that voters would not be paying attention to the election until the new year. With issues getting higher than a 75% awareness level voters clearly are paying attention. I also want to let my readers know that tomorrow I will be crunching these and other numbers for predictions. In fact, I am going to get more specific in my prediction tomorrow and name names. So if you are involved in any of the campaigns you are definitely going to want to read my article tomorrow.

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog

Tuesday, December 20, 2005

Le Double Parlent

Post your comments at the end of this article
I am proud that Canada is a bilingual country. Unfortunately, though, there was a time when politicians would cleverly pitch one message in english and a different message in french in order to maximize their votes in both 'solitudes'. They would not necessarily promise different things, but they could get away with emphasizing different elements of their platforms, and leaving some out all together. But in this day and age of mass media that just is not possible. Or is it?

I needed a break from my number crunching (Is Liberal Support About To Collapse; Is Liberal Support About To Collapse - Part II). So while I will get back to that topic for my Thursday or Friday article, I thought I would put the Web sites of the five main federal parties to my "le double parlent" test. Here is how they fared.

Bloc Quebecois: F
What a disgrace. The Bloc does not even have an english version of their Web site. How is it that the main stream media have not brought up this issue? One could argue that I am being unfair since their message is not directed at english-speaking Canadians. Okay, but then why is the Bloc allowed to participate in the english debates? (See poll to the left.) The most they offer on their Web site is a one page abstract in english, so maybe in turn we can limit them to a one-minute opening statement in the english debates. (Perhaps the Bloc can develop an english version of their Web site where the text is half the size of the french version.)

Conservatives: B-
The headline on the english version of the Conservative's Web site is (at the time of writing this article): Liberals Fail To Defend Canadian Sovereignty. But they have a different headline on the french version (forgive my french): Change for truth - engaging the Conservative Party for Quebecers. Below the main headline they have "Reality Checks". There are different reality checks on the english version than there are on the french version. Clearly, they have one message they are pitching in english and another in french. When I click on the "français" button, or conversely the "english" button, I expect that the only change will be that the site is now in english or french. But I do not want to be too critical, their tactics certainly do not reach Machiavellian standards. I checked speeches, policies, and press releases; there does not appear to be any difference on these between the french and english versions, even on emphasis.

NDP: B-
While the main headline on the english and french versions are the same, the other headlines, and their linked stories, are completely different. That does not seem to be a difference of any substance over the Conservative Web site. I was not able to detect any other differences, so "ibid" my comments above.

Liberals: A+
The french version is simply, get this, a french version of the english site. I must confess that of all the parties it is the Liberals that I would have expected to have a different message on the french version of their Web site than their english version. This is not just because the Liberals have the worst history of this type of "le double parlent" but because of all the parties the Liberals are the ones that, at an organizational level, have such a distinct and separate Quebec campaign. Please understand that I think it would be acceptable to have, for example, a Quebec or B.C. section of a party's Web site that addressed more local issues, or even a "Canadien francophone" section. My concern is when it is presented as though all you are doing is changing the language but, without warning, the message is also changed. I think that is deceptive.

Green Party: C-
The Green Party comes close to having the same information on the french version of their Web site as they do on their english version. Their french version does not have anything different, it is just that some information is missing. At first I could not understand this; however, I suspect the reason is that the party simply does not have the resources to update the french version to the same degree that they update the english version. As the smallest of the political parties I analyzed I would have been tempted to give them a break on this - especially since they have made a valiant partial effort (far better than the larger and better financed Bloc Quebecois). However, it is the Green Party that has been making a big 'to-do' about how they are a national party running candidates in all 308 ridings. So, if they insist on that as a standard then they do not do very well on my "le double parlent" test.

The Truth Hurts: F
This Web site is not a political party's site but there is some irony in critizing the french versions of the federal parties' Web sites when this site does not have anything in french on it - aside from the headline of this article. (By the way, I apologize in advance for any mistakes I have made due to my poor french.)

The Truth Hurts
: Canadian Political Blog
(The image to the upper left is from the cover of Double Talk, by Majula Padmanabhan.)

Monday, December 19, 2005

Is Liberal Support About To Collapse - Part II

Post your comments at the end of this article
If you read my article from yesterday (Is Liberal Support About To Collapse) then you know I have some dire warnings for the Liberals. Let me first explain the basis for this. Leadership indicators have a predictive value. If the leader of a party starts polling better on various leadership indicators one can expect that the party will start polling better as well. Likewise, if a leader starts polling poorly on leadership indicators he/she is going to start to bring the party down with him or her.

Now there is a reason why this article is a "Part II". Today's SES Research numbers are continuing with numbers like I pointed out yesterday. Stephen Harper continues to hold his lead in Ontario as being viewed as the best Prime Minister. That number has to have the Liberal war-room 'concerned' enough to be working extra overtime, if Paul Martin's famous rage has not sent them into that already. Martin's lead in that category in Western Canada has gone from 10 points to 3 points. As concerning as those numbers are for Liberals, there is more to be concerned about. Up until yesterday Martin held a 7 point lead over Harper on who has the best vision for Canada. That has changed to a 3 point deficit. A one day deficit a trend does not make; and, that change is within the poll's margin of error. However, that issue goes to the very heart of the Liberal strategy, which is that Canadians would not like a Harper Canada. If that Harper lead grows then the Liberals are in worse condition than even I thought. But even if he only stays at a statistical tie that should worry the Liberals. And now to the last piece of bad news for the Liberals that I will bring up in this article, yesterday Martin held a 23 point lead over Harper on SES Research's leadership index. Today's numbers show that lead collapsing to only five points. I said it yesterday and I will say it again today, much of what is necessary for a Liberal collapse on election day is falling into place.

Here is my advice for the various parties:
Conservatives
By luck or design, Harper's team should be given credit for running the best campaign thus far. Keep coming out with the softer-side policy statements. This strategy is slowly convincing Canadians that a Conservative government with Harper as Prime Minister may not be as scary as they have thought in the past. I would also start beefing up a visible team approach: start showcasing the team that could replace the Martin cabinet. It is still early in the race, though, so beware of the Liberal fallback: villianize Stephen Harper. But even though it is early, if the Conservatives can keep things even as they are until Christmas there are going to be a whole lot of families getting together over the holidays talking about how a Conservative government would not be that bad. That is going to be a massive asset in the second half of this campaign. Oh, by the way, please, please change those television ads - they are terrible!
Liberals
Martin has some smart people working for him, so I would be surprised if they have not already alerted themselves to the problems I have outlined and analyzed numbers I do not have access to in order to develop a solution. Since leadership numbers are predictive it means if they act now they can avoid a decline in Liberal support. One tip, have someone bring a tape recorder to every local all-candidates debate in Alberta and hope some Reform-cum-Conservative MP says something stupid. As for the Liberal ads; well, let's see. Martin's numbers are starting to drop significantly on leadership indicators and he appears in the Liberal ads how many times?
NDP
Be more visible in the campaign! I would have bet bottles of beer to popcorn kernels that Jack Layton would never have the problem of not being in the media enough. While all the mainstream media were saying that Martin won the english debate (what a simplistic interpretation) I was saying that Layton won and to watch for a bounce in the polls. The NDP have gone up each of the two days following that debate, according to SES Research. Why? Because they finally got to see more of Layton. As for the NDP ads: A- (that means excellent from me). However, variety is the spice of life. Give me some more!
Bloc Quebecois
No help from me. I hope you guys do as poorly as humanly possible - or worse (but given who your opposition is that probably means 50+ seats).

And to all of the parties collectively: everything before the new year is just part of the qualifying laps. It is still important, though, because it gives you position in the new year - when the race really begins.

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
(The image to the upper left is from the cover of
The Collapse of Liberal Empire, written by Paul Goldstene.)

Sunday, December 18, 2005

Is Liberal Support About To Collapse

Post your comments at the end of this article
(Click here for Part II of this article) Are the wheels about to come off the Paul Martin campaign? If one reads between the lines in the polling results there actually is the makings for a pronounced decline in Liberal support.

First to Quebec. According to the SES Research polling data for December 17, 2005 - which would be the first day of polling following the english debates - the Bloc Quebecois now hold more than a two-to-one lead over the Liberals. The research company's latest regional breakouts show that the Liberals are in a neck-and-neck race with the Bloc even in Montreal. But hints of an impending disaster lurk behind other numbers. More Quebecers now see Gilles Duceppe as being a better Prime Minister than Martin! You have to be really bad when a separatist is seen as a better choice for Prime Minister of Canada. In fact, Paul Martin is no longer seen as being the best choice for Prime Minister in both regions of Central Canada (Ontario and Quebec). Martin only holds first place in that category in Western Canada and Atlantic Canada. (Stop the presses! Now I am convinced that western Canadians deliberately take the opposite view of central Canadians just to annoy them. I mean really, how can westerners like Martin more than those 'bastards' out east?)

If you look at the rest of the numbers it only gets worse. In Ontario, Stephen Harper is now seen as the best choice for Prime Minister! According to Ipsos polling data on the english debate (which I lifted from a babe-a-holic's Web site), of the three 'national' leaders (sorry, Duceppe just doesn't cut it for me as a national leader), Martin was the least visually attractive. As ugly as Jean Chretien was even he use to poll better than that in this category. Sticking with these three leaders, Martin was also the only leader whose performance caused more people's opinion of him to decline than improve. The best performance in that category was from Jack Layton, with Harper trailing closely behind in second place; those two leaders switch places on the formerly referred to question of attractiveness (which only proves Layton has to get rid of his moustache).

I could explain my analysis on a few other key numbers, but instead I encourage you to check out the data for yourself. At this point I am not predicting that the Liberal trouble will amount to a collapse. However, I am predicting that NDP support will hit 20 percent before the next debate (in the SES Research polls) and the gap between the Liberals and Conservatives will continually narrow. My prediction flies in the face of what The Strategic Counsel analysis concludes, which is that the Liberals are developing momentum. But I would contend that is an over simplified view of what is actually happening. I believe that many of the elements for a Liberal collapse on election day are there. What is still necessary for a complete collapse, however, is a breakdown in support for the Liberals in some of their safer ridings across the country, and that does not seem to have happened ... yet. If it does, it may only mean a small drop in the national polling numbers, but it will mean a big drop in the number of seats the Liberals win on election day - a collapse if you will. Either way, I do not believe for a moment that the Liberal campaign has any momentum behind it. Having said all that, Harper may yet again be able to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
(The image to the upper left is from the Wikimedia Web site.)

How Would A Conservative Minority Function

Post your comments at the end of this article
I am not sure that a stable Conservative minority government is possible.

On most legislation I think the Conservatives could work out an honourable compromise that both provided relative satisfaction to their base as well as win over support from one or more of the other parties so that it could pass. And I think they could do this for at least as long as the Liberals were able to do it in this recent Parliament - likely longer. Where they will run into problems is with their budget.

While I think the Conservatives have been unfairly labelled as being in partnership with the Bloc Quebecois at times, I think something akin to a partnership with the Bloc may be all they can do to pass their budget. While the Bloc is certainly left wing they are also decentralists, which is where a potential alliance could work. A moderate right wing budget that included some form of massive decentralization, even if it were just a transfer of funds, could win over support from the Bloc. While Stephen Harper is smart enough to know that such a scenario would likely be the kiss of death for the Conservatives in many parts of the country, he will not have many other options. The only other option I can contemplate is a centrist to centre-left budget negotiated with the NDP so that the Conservatives could win the support of the NDP in addition to the Bloc, and the more left leaning the budget the less decentralization would be necessary to win Bloc support. Only a left leaning budget could win over the support of the NDP and yet such a compromise would be a major insult to the Conservative's base and would severely undermine their support.

Harper is a smart man and well aware of the dangers of being seen to be allied with the Bloc. Maybe he would be able to pull a rabbit out of the hat.

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
(The image to the upper left is from the Wikimedia Web site.)

Saturday, December 17, 2005

Have the Conservatives Gone Pinko

Post your comments at the end of this article
Some times I wonder if I am really a conservative and it is just that the Conservatives are not. And in this election their policies really have me wondering, especially on daycare.

So far the debate on daycare has focused on, to give it a slightly Conservative spin, who can make the best decision regarding their children: parents or the government. A worthy debate, and one filled with redefining the premise of that statement. But the conservative in me asks: what about the guy you are taking the money from in the first place?!

Good platforms require good policy which require good policy objectives. If a policy objective helps me I will be inclined to support it. If it helps my community, whether that be Ontario, Canada or otherwise, I am also inclined to support it. If it only falls into the category of helping others but not me then there better be some good social justice issues being addressed in the policy objectives. Now that I have bored you all I will get to my point. What policy objectives are addressed by taking $1200 from me and giving it to my next-door-neighbours who have one kid? Scott Reid stuck a beer bottle in his mouth, but the point he so miserably failed to make was that the Conservative's platform on daycare is devoid of any good daycare policy objectives; heck, they're devoid of any daycare policy objectives since my neighbours truly can spend that money on anything they want to. That is great if you are receiving the money. But the REAL conservative also examines the issues in regards to the people you are taking the money from.

Taking $1200 from me and giving it to my neighbours for no good reason smacks of socialism to me. Even if your policy objective is so that they can use the money for babysitting I still have some concerns. However, if you are taking $1200 from me to support early childhood education that is something that benefits the entire community, including me in the long run. I may still be critical of the program, because it will truly need to address education, but I agree with the policy objective. The Conservative's policy, however, is nothing more than a wealth transfer scheme.

So to the Conservatives I say: get your hand outa my wallet!

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
(The image to the upper left is from the Wikimedia Web site.)

Forecaster Successes

I am very please with the results of the seat forecaster so far. Here are some successes:

Quebec
Readers of The Truth Hurts were the first to learn that the Liberals were in serious trouble in Quebec. The Truth Hurts beat the mainstream media and other blogs on this prediction because of the forecaster. The Truth Hurts was also the first to predict that the Conservatives could win seats in Quebec.


British Columbia
Readers of The Truth Hurts were the first to learn that the Liberals were in trouble in B.C. No poll had been release yet on British Columbia numbers, only on western Canada. However, algorithms have been developed for the forecaster based on the last election and then updated with each comprehensive poll in order to create voting patterns. Now, when a poll is released that only breaks out the vote according to four regions these voting patterns can be used to give a good prediction of what is happening on the ground.

NDP
The Truth Hurts Forecaster showed the NDP peaking with seats and then dropping as the Conservatives rose in support. Before the mainstream media starting informing the public that the Conservatives were a threat to the NDP you already had Jack Layton attacking them. That is because the mainstream parties have their own sophisticated polling going on. But anyone reading The Truth Hurts would have known about this at about the same time the NDP did and before the mainstream media covered it.

Keep checking back daily as the forecaster will be updated daily. There will also be a commentary that provides an analysis of what is most likely happening as a result of the polling numbers, and sometimes there have been two or three commentaries with an analysis posted each day. If you have any feedback please do not hesitate to send it to me.

Friday, December 16, 2005

Layton Won, Duceppe Lost, And Two Laughable Contradictions

Post your comments at the end of this article
I was struck by two interesting contradictions, one by Stephen Harper and the other by Gilles Duceppe. Before I address those, however, let me say that I think all of the leaders stepped their performance up a notch compared to the french debate the day before. If I had to pick a winnner, though, I would say it was Jack Layton this time.

The first interesting contradition I will mention came from Harper's comments about dealing with MPs who switch parties. Proclaiming a first hand understanding of this problem he said no one was more frustrated by it than he (though I think Peter McKay had to deal with a few more 'frustrations' regarding this than Harper did). But let us really think about this. There use to be a bunch of MPs under the banner Reform. Then, in an attempt to form some grand coalition, they became Alliance MPs. No one really bought that as any type of coalition, so it really was nothing more than changing party names. But then the Alliance MPs, formerly Reform MPs, joined with the Progressive Conservative MPs to form a new party called the Conservatives. I will have to check my history books to be sure, but I do not believe we have ever had so many MPs switch parties at the same time in all of Canada's history. And ironically, guess who played an important behind the scenes role in this major party switching event. If you guessed Belinda Stronach you would be correct.

To Harper's credit, he does seem to recognize the problem of creating a system that penalizes MPs for breaking with their party by forcing them into a by-election. We elect MPs to represent us in Parliament and make decisions. There are times that the best decision they can make on our behalf is to switch parties. I can understand why the public would want there to be some hindrance in place to that decision, but they should know that there already is. It takes years before MPs recover from such a decision on a personal level. Their new collegues do not trust them for some time. And they are persona non grata with their old collegues, often for ever. On a professional level MPs who cross the floor typically do not get re-elected. In my humble opinion these obstacles are more than enough because I believe there are too many cases where an MP should have left their party because their party's stance was no longer consistent with the best interests of their constituents. Any additional obstacles to this will only make matters worse.

The other contradiction that got the biggest laugh from me out of the whole debate was when the issue of gay marriage came up and Duceppe said that the decision was made and it should therefore not be revisited - Parliament should move forward. Well, he and other separatists do not seem to take the same view on Quebec's neverendums. Twice now Quebecers have said yes to Canada but Duceppe still believes there should be another referendum. My guess is that he believes this should constantly be revisited until Quebecers say yes to separation - though in the last two referendums they did not really ask a question clear enough that it could give them that answer.

If there was a loser tonight it was Duceppe. And that surprises me given his excellent performance in other debates. I would say that the reason he lost is that he got dragged into topics like separation when he should have been avoiding these topics since it played right into the Liberal strategy in Quebec; however, I cannot really say he got dragged into it because he seemed very willing to talk about these issues.

None of the leaders seemed to have done what was necessary to significantly improve their performance. Having said that, watch the NDP's polling numbers to see if they get any bounce from this.

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
(The image to the upper left is from the NDP Web site.)

The Separatist Myth Machine

Post your comments at the end of this article
A Liberal candidate in Quebec spoke the truth about tranfer payments and the separatist myth machine went into high gear to tear her down.

Yesterday, Helene Chalifour-Sherrer (picture to the left), a Liberal candidate in Quebec City and former principal secretary to Paul Martin, stated that, "People still have the impression that the province of Quebec is the milking cow for all of Canada. That is not the case. The province of Quebec needs equalization payments and money from Alberta, Ontario and British Columbia, otherwise it couldn't make ends meet."

Everything in that statement is 100% correct. But now here comes the Bloc's response.

"I cannot accept that Quebeckers would talk about Quebec in such terms," said Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe. "I cannot accept that we would be proud of being dependent. That is why we want to become independent, to put an end to dependency."

First of all, she clearly did not state this as something she is proud of. She stated it because the separatist myth machine has been arguing that Quebec pays more into federalism than it gets out. That is not true. Second, there is no logic to the Bloc's argument. No credible economic analysis has concluded that an independent Quebec would somehow create more wealth that would make up for the loss of transfer payments. Indeed, most economists agree that there would be four to five years of great instability following a "yes" vote. Where would this 'new' money come from in an indepedent Quebec? Somehow the separatists believe sovereignty itself creates wealth. The Globe and Mail, in an article in reference to this issue, states, "Mr. Duceppe said that if Quebec had all the powers as a sovereign country, it would not need equalization payments."

Lucien Bouchard, a former leader of the separatist parties Parti Quebecois and Bloc Quebecois, along with 12 business, academic and other leaders in their fields, issued a manifesto that urged the Quebec government to deal with the economic and fiscal problems of Quebec. Separatists and federalists alike concluded that separatism will not address these issues. Quebec will continue to face these problems when their leaders feed them myths like separatism will solve their economic woes.

Chalifour-Sherrer spoke the truth and Quebec needs more leaders like her - and they need them to speak even louder.

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
(The image to the upper left is from the Liberal Party of Canada Web site.)

Who Won The First Leaders' Debate

Post your comments at the end of this article
That was the most boring leadership debate I have ever seen.

There are some who believe that either the format or the number of participants is the cause of this. Baloney. The problem is that our current crop of leaders does not have any 'presence'. What do I mean by this? Ed Broadbent had presence. Brian Mulroney had presence. And the granddaddy of presence was none other than Pierre Trudeau. Just imagine Pierre Trudeau in the debate last night and you can imagine something very different.

When Stephen Harper said he was having difficulties with Canada's "second language" Paul Martin should have nailed him. In 'english' Canada his comment makes some sense. But the debate was overwhelmingly being viewed by french Canadians. Paul Martin should have shot back, "We have two official languages, sir. And neither one of them is 'second'." Generally Martin should not have wasted time on Harper last night, but that comment would have helped him reclaim his title as champion of french Canadians - and that would help him tremendously in his fight against Gilles Duceppe.

Out of the four I would say that Duceppe performed the best. He is slightly too left of centre for my liking in general. However, as much as I hate to admit it, he is probably the best leader of the four. (Excuse me while I spit.) Can you image if the Bloc had created a truly national party instead of a 'short-term' collection of MPs advocating separatism? They formed the Official Opposition in their first election. If they were running candidates nation wide and with a national policy platform there is a better than even chance, in my opinion, that it would be they who were the minority government right now. Perhaps they even could have formed a majority. As much as that thought may annoy you, it is really a true reflection on something else. Quebec separatists want to build a nation. Well what do they think we have been doing together for over a century?! If they were to direct their energies towards working together with the rest of us to build a great nation we would be unstoppable. Instead, they are obsessed with the constitution. Forget it! The fact that the Bloc could have been a great national party, and indeed been the government, shows that massive changes of significance to ordinary Quebecers is already possible within confederation. Just do it!

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
(The image to the upper left is from an article in the Vancouver Sun.)

Thursday, December 15, 2005

The Myth About Getting Quebec To Sign The Constitution

Post your comments at the end of this article
How many times have you heard that we need to get Quebec to sign the constitution? Makes you think that it is even possible, doesn't it?

You may be surprised to know that no province signed the constitution. Furthermore, what did a yes vote mean in the last neverendum ... sorry, referendum ... in Quebec? It meant that Quebec accepted Canada, which includes the constitution. Now, for those of you who may have doubts about whether a province can actually sign the constitution all you have to do is to look at the document, which I have posted to the left of this blog. There are three names there: Queen Elizabeth, Pierre Trudeau and Jean Chretien ... and Jean Chretien's signature wasn't even necessary.

There was a separatist government in Quebec at the time the constitution was patriated. There wasn't any chance they were going to support a new constitutional framework for Canada, and Rene Levesque, Quebec Premier at the time, said as much. But nearly every Quebec MP supported the constitution and all the polls indicated that a majority of Quebecers also supported the constitution. So even saying that Quebec didn't support the constitution at the time is a myth. And Quebec chose Canada again, with its current constitution, in the last Quebec referendum.

Having said all that, our federalism is extremely flexible. Quebec's needs and those of the other provinces have been accommodated within the current structure. Together, french, english and all other Canadians have built a nation to be proud of. What change to the constitution will help forestry workers in Quebec? What help is necessary that cannot be done within the current constitution? What change to the constitution will better protect the french language? What protection is necessary that cannot be done within the current constitution? When you ask these questions you realize this debate isn't about improving the lives of Quebecers. This debate on the constitution is really about Quebec City politicians wanting more power for themselves rather than the politicians in Ottawa - it has nothing to do with the little guy.

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
(The image to the upper left is from the Centre for Research and Information on Canada.)

Saturday, December 03, 2005

Riding by Riding Predictions

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
The predictions below are the estimated results if an election were held on 22 January 2005. You can also check out the Comprehesive Seat Forecaster and Daily Seat Forecaster. (For an explanation on these various models click here.)

If you do not agree with a riding prediction, please read this:
The Truth Hurts Seat Forecaster uses the latest polling numbers to calculate the total number of votes for each party in each region (there are several different regions within the model). It then distributes those votes riding by riding based on an expected voting pattern which is calculated by various algorithms. The voting patterns could be slightly wrong which could mean the Liberals will lose riding x, but the redistribution would probably mean the Liberals will win riding y instead. It is simply an attempt at transforming the percentage of the vote into the most likely seat totals. The riding by riding results below are from the worksheets of the model and are provided to you just as information.



Last Updated: 01/23/06 11:00:00 am








BRITISH COLUMBIA LIBERAL CPC NDP Bloc Green Other Hold/Lose
Riding Prediction





Lower Mainland






Abbotsford 20.6% 63.1% 12.0% 0.0% 2.3% 2.1%
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Burnaby-Douglas 33.4% 32.0% 30.4% 0.0% 2.7% 1.5%
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Burnaby-New Westminster 33.8% 32.8% 29.5% 0.0% 2.8% 1.1%
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Delta-Richmond East 32.7% 50.6% 12.3% 0.0% 4.5% 0.0%
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Fleetwood-Port Kells 29.9% 41.0% 24.2% 0.0% 4.5% 0.4%
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Langley 24.4% 52.9% 14.1% 0.0% 4.2% 4.4%
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New Westminster-Coquitlam 28.1% 38.0% 28.5% 0.0% 4.0% 1.4%
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Newton-North Delta 33.7% 34.9% 26.6% 0.0% 4.6% 0.2%
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North Vancouver 40.0% 41.0% 13.5% 0.0% 5.1% 0.4%
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Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission 23.3% 41.0% 29.7% 0.0% 4.3% 1.7%
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Port-Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam 27.3% 46.2% 22.5% 0.0% 3.0% 1.0%
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Richmond 44.1% 39.4% 12.7% 0.0% 2.9% 0.9%
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South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale 36.2% 47.3% 12.1% 0.0% 3.9% 0.5%
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Surrey North 29.1% 26.3% 38.1% 0.0% 2.5% 4.0%
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Vancouver Centre 42.2% 22.6% 28.8% 0.0% 4.9% 1.4%
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Vancouver East 28.4% 12.4% 52.9% 0.0% 4.4% 2.0%
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Vancouver Kingsway 42.4% 19.5% 33.3% 0.0% 2.6% 2.2%
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Vancouver Quadra 52.7% 29.8% 12.9% 0.0% 3.9% 0.6%
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Vancouver South 45.2% 29.2% 21.3% 0.0% 2.5% 1.8%
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West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea To Sky Country 34.7% 37.6% 19.8% 0.0% 7.2% 0.7%
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Riding Prediction





Rest of BC






Cariboo-Prince George 18.9% 49.4% 26.0% 0.0% 3.3% 2.5%
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Chilliwack-Fraser Canyon 17.3% 56.3% 20.0% 0.0% 2.5% 3.9%
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Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca 34.9% 26.6% 31.2% 0.0% 6.7% 0.7%
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Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo 27.0% 43.0% 25.8% 0.0% 3.3% 0.8%
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Kelowna-Lake Country 27.5% 47.0% 18.0% 0.0% 6.1% 1.4%
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Kootenay-Columbia 17.0% 54.9% 23.3% 0.0% 4.8% 0.0%
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Nanaimo-Alberni 19.1% 41.8% 32.0% 0.0% 5.7% 1.4%
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Nanaimo-Cowichan 15.5% 35.3% 43.6% 0.0% 4.7% 0.8%
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Okanogan-Coquihalla 21.9% 52.7% 19.2% 0.0% 4.6% 1.6%
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Okanogan-Shuswap 23.1% 45.0% 25.7% 0.0% 3.7% 2.5%
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Prince George-Peace River 13.0% 61.5% 20.1% 0.0% 4.3% 1.0%
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Saanich-Gulf Islands 26.4% 38.0% 22.0% 0.0% 13.3% 0.3%
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Skeena-Bulkley Valley 20.7% 35.9% 36.7% 0.0% 2.6% 4.1%
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British Columbia South Interior 25.0% 12.4% 50.4% 0.0% 8.9% 3.3%
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Vancouver Island North 20.9% 38.3% 34.6% 0.0% 6.0% 0.2%
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Victoria 32.3% 25.2% 33.2% 0.0% 8.9% 0.4%
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SEAT PREDICTION 8 22 6 0 0 0
FEDERAL ELECTION 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006
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ALBERTA LIBERAL CPC NDP Bloc Green Other Hold/Lose
Riding Prediction





Calgary






Calgary East 15.6% 61.9% 13.1% 0.0% 8.8% 0.7%
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Calgary North Centre 15.4% 54.1% 15.9% 0.0% 13.5% 1.1%
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Calgary Northeast 18.4% 64.5% 10.3% 0.0% 5.9% 0.8%
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Calgary South Centre 22.4% 53.1% 11.6% 0.0% 12.4% 0.5%
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Calgary Southeast 12.0% 71.9% 8.7% 0.0% 7.4% 0.0%
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Calgary Southwest 13.6% 69.7% 8.3% 0.0% 6.8% 1.6%
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Calgary West 22.2% 58.6% 8.9% 0.0% 9.6% 0.7%
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Calgary-Nose Hill 17.1% 66.4% 9.1% 0.0% 7.4% 0.0%
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CANADIAN ELECTION 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS
CANADIAN ELECTION 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006
CANADIAN ELECTION PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006
Riding Prediction





Edmonton LIBERAL CPC NDP Bloc Green Other Hold/Lose
Edmonton-Beaumont 27.0% 50.8% 15.2% 0.0% 6.7% 0.4%
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Edmonton Centre 34.4% 44.0% 12.8% 0.0% 6.3% 2.5%
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Edmonton East 25.1% 47.1% 19.7% 0.0% 6.9% 1.2%
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Edmonton-Leduc 22.8% 56.7% 12.7% 0.0% 7.7% 0.0%
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Edmonton-St. Albert 18.4% 58.2% 15.3% 0.0% 8.0% 0.0%
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Edmonton-Sherwood Park 18.7% 58.6% 14.5% 0.0% 8.1% 0.0%
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Edmonton-Spruce Grove 19.8% 61.9% 12.0% 0.0% 6.3% 0.0%
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Edmonton Strathcona 21.6% 38.8% 30.7% 0.0% 7.7% 1.2%
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CANADIAN ELECTION 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS
CANADIAN ELECTION 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006
CANADIAN ELECTION PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006
Riding Prediction





Rest of Alberta LIBERAL CPC NDP Bloc Green Other Hold/Lose
Crowfoot 5.4% 80.1% 8.8% 0.0% 4.5% 1.3%
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Fort McMurray-Athabasca 17.5% 62.4% 13.8% 0.0% 6.3% 0.0%
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Lethbridge 15.7% 64.8% 12.8% 0.0% 3.2% 3.4%
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Macleod 8.6% 75.3% 8.3% 0.0% 7.8% 0.0%
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Medicine Hat 7.7% 76.2% 11.7% 0.0% 4.4% 0.0%
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Peace River 18.1% 55.0% 19.2% 0.0% 7.6% 0.0%
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Red Deer 8.4% 75.2% 10.0% 0.0% 5.6% 0.8%
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Vegreville-Wainwright 8.3% 73.6% 10.5% 0.0% 7.6% 0.0%
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Westlock-St. Paul 15.1% 65.6% 12.5% 0.0% 6.7% 0.0%
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Wetaskiwin 9.3% 71.5% 10.2% 0.0% 8.0% 1.0%
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Wild Rose 8.9% 70.6% 10.8% 0.0% 9.7% 0.0%
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Yellowhead 8.0% 68.1% 14.5% 0.0% 7.6% 1.8%
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SEAT PREDICTION 0 28 0 0 0 0
FEDERAL ELECTION 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS
FEDERAL ELECTION 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006
FEDERAL ELECTION PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006
PRAIRIES LIBERAL CPC NDP Bloc Green Other Hold/Lose
Riding Prediction





Saskatchewan






Battlefords-Lloydminster 10.3% 50.5% 19.2% 0.0% 5.2% 14.9%
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Blackstrap 23.1% 46.7% 23.8% 0.0% 5.9% 0.5%
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Churchill River 24.3% 46.9% 22.4% 0.0% 5.8% 0.5%
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Cypress Hills 12.9% 64.0% 15.6% 0.0% 7.5% 0.0%
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Palliser 18.2% 40.1% 35.7% 0.0% 4.7% 1.3%
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Prince Albert 17.2% 51.8% 24.7% 0.0% 6.4% 0.0%
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Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre 25.9% 40.1% 29.0% 0.0% 4.7% 0.3%
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Regina-Qu'Appelle 20.6% 40.5% 33.2% 0.0% 4.4% 1.4%
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Saskatoon-Humboldt 23.8% 38.2% 32.8% 0.0% 4.7% 0.5%
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Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar 11.1% 48.2% 35.0% 0.0% 5.8% 0.0%
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Saskatoon-Wanuskewin 24.0% 52.4% 18.0% 0.0% 5.7% 0.0%
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Souris-Moose Mountain 13.0% 49.9% 12.5% 0.0% 23.7% 0.8%
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Wascana 46.4% 30.2% 17.9% 0.0% 5.4% 0.0%
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Yorkton-Melville 10.3% 66.8% 17.8% 0.0% 3.6% 1.5%
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Manitoba LIBERAL CPC NDP Bloc Green Other Hold/Lose
Brandon-Souris 17.2% 56.3% 18.7% 0.0% 6.6% 1.2%
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Charleswood-St. James 29.4% 54.1% 11.2% 0.0% 4.4% 1.0%
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Churchill 29.6% 18.6% 32.5% 0.0% 6.2% 13.1%
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Dauphin-Swan River 14.5% 58.7% 21.5% 0.0% 3.7% 1.6%
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Elmwood-Transcona 12.2% 28.9% 51.8% 0.0% 4.6% 2.5%
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Kildonan-St. Paul 27.6% 43.3% 23.4% 0.0% 4.1% 1.5%
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Portage-Lisgar 12.4% 70.1% 9.0% 0.0% 4.5% 4.1%
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Provencher 17.6% 68.0% 8.8% 0.0% 5.6% 0.0%
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Saint Boniface 36.4% 37.3% 19.4% 0.0% 4.9% 2.0%
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Selkirk-Interlake 16.4% 52.0% 26.2% 0.0% 4.6% 0.8%
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Winnipeg Centre 26.3% 16.0% 47.2% 0.0% 8.5% 2.0%
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Winnipeg North 28.4% 15.1% 51.4% 0.0% 4.1% 1.0%
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Winnipeg South 40.6% 40.9% 12.2% 0.0% 5.5% 0.8%
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Winnipeg South Centre 36.2% 32.0% 22.7% 0.0% 7.8% 1.3%
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SEAT PREDICTION 2 22 4 0 0 0
CANADIAN ELECTION 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006
CANADIAN ELECTION PREDICTIONS 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 PREDICTIONS








ONTARIO LIBERAL CPC NDP Bloc Green Other Hold/Lose
Riding Prediction





Northern Ontario






Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing 39.5% 20.6% 34.1% 0.0% 5.8% 0.0%
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Kenora 32.0% 26.2% 36.3% 0.0% 5.6% 0.0%
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Nickel Belt 41.0% 16.8% 37.1% 0.0% 3.5% 1.7%
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Nipissing-Timiskaming 42.2% 34.1% 18.9% 0.0% 4.4% 0.5%
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Parry Sound-Muskoka 43.0% 32.8% 12.8% 0.0% 11.3% 0.0%
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Sault Ste. Marie 35.4% 20.6% 41.2% 0.0% 2.6% 0.2%
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Sudbury 42.6% 18.7% 32.0% 0.0% 6.5% 0.2%
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Thunder Bay-Rainy River 35.2% 25.0% 34.0% 0.0% 3.5% 2.3%
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Thunder Bay-Superior North 38.1% 19.9% 33.3% 0.0% 6.8% 1.9%
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Timmins-James Bay 38.0% 14.7% 44.2% 0.0% 3.1% 0.0%
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CANADIAN ELECTION 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS
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CANADIAN ELECTION PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006
Riding Prediction





Ottawa LIBERAL CPC NDP Bloc Green Other Hold/Lose
Nepean-Carleton 39.0% 42.3% 11.9% 0.0% 6.0% 0.8%
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Ottawa Centre 32.5% 19.0% 35.9% 0.0% 11.3% 1.3%
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Ottawa South 40.0% 34.1% 16.7% 0.0% 7.5% 1.8%
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Ottawa West-Nepean 37.0% 37.6% 17.4% 0.0% 6.9% 1.1%
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Ottawa-Orleans 43.5% 37.1% 13.0% 0.0% 6.4% 0.0%
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Ottawa-Vanier 46.4% 21.7% 23.4% 0.0% 7.3% 1.1%
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CANADIAN ELECTION 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS
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CANADIAN ELECTION PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006
Riding Prediction





Eastern Ontario LIBERAL CPC NDP Bloc Green Other Hold/Lose
Carleton-Lanark 27.8% 50.5% 13.8% 0.0% 7.9% 0.0%
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Clarington-Scugog-Uxbridge 31.3% 41.1% 20.2% 0.0% 5.8% 1.8%
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Glengarry-Prescott-Russell 36.3% 41.2% 12.3% 0.0% 8.1% 2.1%
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Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock 27.9% 44.2% 19.9% 0.0% 6.6% 1.4%
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Kingston and the Islands 43.5% 23.6% 22.3% 0.0% 8.8% 1.8%
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Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington 25.1% 48.7% 17.3% 0.0% 6.8% 2.2%
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Leeds-Grenville 26.8% 50.7% 15.0% 0.0% 7.4% 0.0%
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Northumberland-Quinte West 32.4% 39.5% 20.7% 0.0% 7.3% 0.0%
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Peterborough 31.7% 33.7% 26.5% 0.0% 8.1% 0.0%
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Prince Edward-Hastings 30.7% 42.6% 20.2% 0.0% 5.6% 0.9%
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Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke 24.3% 55.6% 15.3% 0.0% 3.4% 1.4%
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Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry 30.0% 45.1% 14.8% 0.0% 10.1% 0.0%
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CANADIAN ELECTION 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS
CANADIAN ELECTION 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006
CANADIAN ELECTION PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006
Riding Prediction





Southwestern Ontario LIBERAL CPC NDP Bloc Green Other Hold/Lose
Cambridge 31.7% 41.6% 18.8% 0.0% 6.7% 1.2%
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Chatham-Kent-Essex 31.3% 45.6% 16.8% 0.0% 6.0% 0.3%
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Essex 30.3% 41.2% 22.9% 0.0% 5.3% 0.2%
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Guelph 39.1% 29.8% 19.0% 0.0% 10.3% 1.9%
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Kitchener Centre 41.7% 31.6% 18.5% 0.0% 7.6% 0.6%
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Kitchener-Conestoga 36.5% 39.7% 14.7% 0.0% 9.1% 0.0%
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Kitchener-Waterloo 42.4% 33.7% 15.1% 0.0% 7.9% 0.9%
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London North Centre 38.1% 31.5% 23.1% 0.0% 6.7% 0.6%
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London West 40.0% 35.9% 16.4% 0.0% 6.6% 1.0%
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London-Fanshawe 30.7% 31.6% 30.4% 0.0% 5.9% 1.3%
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Sarnia-Lambton 36.7% 34.6% 15.4% 0.0% 7.5% 5.8%
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Windsor West 28.1% 22.0% 44.5% 0.0% 5.0% 0.3%
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Windsor-Tecumseh 30.4% 23.9% 40.5% 0.0% 4.8% 0.4%
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CANADIAN ELECTION 2006 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006
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CANADIAN ELECTION 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS
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CANADIAN ELECTION PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006
Elgin-Middlesex-London 29.1% 48.6% 13.4% 0.0% 6.0% 2.9%
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Grey-Bruce-Owen Sound 30.4% 49.9% 12.1% 0.0% 5.7% 1.9%
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Haldimand-Norfolk 33.4% 47.3% 13.4% 0.0% 4.7% 1.2%
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Huron-Bruce 44.2% 35.9% 12.6% 0.0% 4.2% 3.1%
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Lambton-Kent-Middlesex 31.3% 46.4% 14.7% 0.0% 5.4% 2.1%
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Oxford 25.8% 49.5% 13.3% 0.0% 5.7% 5.5%
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Perth-Wellington 28.3% 46.3% 14.3% 0.0% 8.3% 2.7%
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Wellington-Halton Hills 32.5% 47.5% 11.0% 0.0% 7.4% 1.6%
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CANADIAN ELECTION 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS
CANADIAN ELECTION 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006
CANADIAN ELECTION PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006
Riding Prediction





905 Belt LIBERAL CPC NDP Bloc Green Other Hold/Lose
Hamilton Centre 39.2% 17.3% 36.4% 0.0% 4.7% 2.4%
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Hamilton East-Stoney Creek 42.4% 24.6% 27.5% 0.0% 4.2% 1.2%
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Hamilton Mountain 35.8% 33.6% 26.3% 0.0% 3.8% 0.4%
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Oshawa 33.7% 36.1% 24.4% 0.0% 5.5% 0.2%
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Welland 43.6% 28.3% 22.2% 0.0% 4.1% 1.8%
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CANADIAN ELECTION 2006 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006
CANADIAN ELECTION 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006
CANADIAN ELECTION 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS
CANADIAN ELECTION 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006
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Ajax-Pickering 49.9% 35.7% 8.5% 0.0% 5.9% 0.0%
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Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale 43.4% 40.0% 16.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0%
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Barrie 42.2% 41.9% 7.4% 0.0% 8.5% 0.0%
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Bramalea-Gore-Malton 50.2% 32.8% 10.6% 0.0% 5.9% 0.6%
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Brampton West 45.2% 42.2% 7.3% 0.0% 4.5% 0.8%
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Brampton-Springdale 49.1% 30.0% 14.3% 0.0% 6.4% 0.2%
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Brant 39.2% 36.2% 16.0% 0.0% 6.9% 1.8%
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Burlington 44.7% 40.3% 7.5% 0.0% 6.7% 0.7%
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Dufferin-Caledon 38.0% 44.1% 5.8% 0.0% 11.2% 0.9%
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Halton 47.7% 40.0% 5.7% 0.0% 6.6% 0.0%
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Markham-Unionville 66.7% 23.9% 6.1% 0.0% 3.3% 0.0%
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Mississauga East-Cooksville 57.4% 27.9% 8.3% 0.0% 3.9% 2.6%
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Mississauga South 51.7% 35.6% 7.4% 0.0% 5.2% 0.2%
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Mississauga-Brampton South 58.3% 26.0% 10.6% 0.0% 4.7% 0.4%
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Mississauga-Erindale 51.7% 35.8% 7.3% 0.0% 4.9% 0.3%
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Mississauga-Streetsville 50.3% 33.4% 6.6% 0.0% 7.0% 2.8%
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Newmarket-Aurora 49.1% 36.1% 6.9% 0.0% 5.8% 2.0%
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Niagara Falls 37.5% 42.1% 15.0% 0.0% 5.4% 0.0%
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Niagara West-Glanbrook 39.5% 43.1% 10.5% 0.0% 4.5% 2.4%
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Oak Ridges-Markham 51.5% 35.3% 6.1% 0.0% 5.1% 2.0%
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Oakville 51.3% 36.9% 5.0% 0.0% 6.7% 0.2%
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Richmond Hill 58.5% 26.3% 6.8% 0.0% 6.0% 2.3%
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Simcoe Grey 40.2% 42.7% 7.0% 0.0% 6.2% 4.0%
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Simcoe North 40.5% 41.4% 8.2% 0.0% 8.7% 1.3%
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St. Catharines 41.6% 37.7% 13.9% 0.0% 4.9% 1.9%
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Vaughan 63.1% 25.1% 6.2% 0.0% 4.5% 1.1%
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Whitby-Oshawa 45.3% 38.4% 9.9% 0.0% 6.4% 0.0%
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York-Simcoe 35.2% 47.4% 7.8% 0.0% 7.1% 2.6%
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CANADIAN ELECTION 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006
CANADIAN ELECTION PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006
Riding Prediction





Toronto LIBERAL CPC NDP Bloc Green Other Hold/Lose
Beaches-East York 29.4% 15.9% 45.7% 0.0% 8.0% 1.0%
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Davenport 32.7% 11.0% 46.9% 0.0% 7.8% 1.6%
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Parkdale-High Park 25.4% 17.1% 44.5% 0.0% 12.1% 0.9%
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Toronto-Danforth 24.6% 6.8% 58.8% 0.0% 9.2% 0.6%
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Trinity-Spadina 28.0% 10.2% 52.5% 0.0% 7.9% 1.4%
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Don Valley East 38.2% 35.5% 19.2% 0.0% 5.8% 1.2%
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Etobicoke North 47.4% 25.3% 19.1% 0.0% 4.2% 4.0%
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Etobicoke-Lakeshore 30.1% 39.3% 21.4% 0.0% 8.9% 0.3%
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Pickering-Scarborough 40.2% 35.7% 16.5% 0.0% 7.6% 0.0%
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Scarborough Centre 39.8% 29.6% 24.6% 0.0% 5.7% 0.4%
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Scarborough Southwest 32.8% 28.5% 30.8% 0.0% 7.5% 0.4%
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Scarborough-Guildwood 40.6% 29.0% 23.7% 0.0% 6.1% 0.5%
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St. Paul's 40.6% 25.7% 22.8% 0.0% 10.9% 0.0%
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Toronto Centre 38.9% 18.4% 34.0% 0.0% 7.6% 1.0%
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York Centre 38.4% 33.3% 20.0% 0.0% 6.3% 2.1%
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York South-Weston 42.2% 19.1% 31.2% 0.0% 7.0% 0.5%
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York West 48.5% 15.3% 23.8% 0.0% 6.3% 6.0%
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CANADIAN ELECTION 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006
CANADIAN ELECTION 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS
CANADIAN ELECTION 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006
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Don Valley West 42.9% 37.3% 13.0% 0.0% 6.9% 0.0%
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Eglinton-Lawrence 42.9% 32.8% 15.6% 0.0% 8.4% 0.2%
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Etobicoke Centre 41.4% 37.0% 14.8% 0.0% 6.6% 0.2%
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Scarborough-Agincourt 47.8% 28.7% 16.0% 0.0% 4.8% 2.7%
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Scarborough-Rouge River 61.9% 19.0% 15.3% 0.0% 3.5% 0.3%
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Thornhill 38.2% 44.3% 10.3% 0.0% 6.2% 0.9%
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Willowdale 44.5% 30.8% 14.7% 0.0% 7.7% 2.3%
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SEAT PREDICTION 61 34 11 0 0 0
FEDERAL ELECTION 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS
FEDERAL ELECTION 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006
FEDERAL ELECTION PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006
QUEBEC LIBERAL CPC NDP Bloc Green Other Hold/Lose
Riding Prediction





West Montreal






Jeanne-Le Ber 23.0% 12.3% 18.6% 36.8% 8.0% 1.4%
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Lac Saint Louis 34.7% 26.0% 19.6% 8.8% 9.8% 1.0%
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LaSalle-Emard 36.2% 12.6% 13.4% 31.5% 4.9% 1.3%
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Mount Royal 48.5% 21.9% 15.1% 7.2% 6.2% 1.1%
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Notre Dame de Grace-Lachine 28.4% 21.6% 20.3% 18.8% 9.4% 1.5%
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Outremont 20.2% 11.6% 33.2% 26.3% 7.4% 1.2%
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Pierrefonds-Dollard 37.3% 25.0% 15.3% 15.0% 6.2% 1.2%
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Saint Laurent-Cartierville 42.3% 15.5% 18.9% 17.5% 4.6% 1.1%
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Westmount-Ville-Marie 27.9% 19.9% 28.7% 11.9% 10.6% 1.0%
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East Montreal LIBERAL CPC NDP Bloc Green Other
Ahuntsic 25.6% 12.1% 17.4% 38.6% 5.5% 0.8%
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Bourassa 31.6% 13.3% 12.0% 38.2% 3.5% 1.4%
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Hochelaga 14.4% 9.0% 14.8% 54.3% 5.9% 1.6%
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Honore-Mercier 28.2% 14.6% 12.0% 39.7% 3.8% 1.7%
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La Pointe de I'lle 13.2% 9.7% 10.5% 61.4% 5.2% 0.0%
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Laurier 8.6% 4.9% 28.1% 46.8% 10.4% 1.2%
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Papineau 22.9% 10.5% 23.3% 35.6% 5.0% 2.6%
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Rosemont-La Petite Patrie 12.3% 6.6% 19.7% 53.2% 8.0% 0.3%
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Saint Leonard-Saint Michel 40.5% 13.2% 18.1% 22.2% 5.2% 0.7%
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North Montreal LIBERAL CPC NDP Bloc Green Other
Alfred-Pellan 24.2% 12.3% 10.1% 48.3% 4.6% 0.6%
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Argenteuil-Mirabel 16.0% 16.6% 8.6% 47.6% 10.7% 0.5%
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Laval 21.2% 14.8% 11.5% 47.0% 4.6% 1.0%
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Laval-Les Iles 28.8% 16.6% 12.6% 35.8% 5.0% 1.3%
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Marc Aurele Fortin 15.7% 13.4% 9.7% 53.5% 7.7% 0.0%
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Montcalm 9.1% 12.8% 8.4% 63.2% 6.5% 0.0%
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Repentigny 10.4% 10.8% 8.1% 64.0% 5.8% 1.0%
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Riviere des Mille Iles 13.4% 14.7% 9.1% 54.5% 8.4% 0.0%
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Terrebonne-Blainville 11.1% 12.5% 8.5% 61.3% 6.7% 0.0%
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South Montreal LIBERAL CPC NDP Bloc Green Other
Beauharnois-Salaberry 21.4% 22.5% 5.7% 43.6% 5.8% 0.9%
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Brossard-La Prairie 27.7% 14.1% 12.8% 39.8% 5.4% 0.2%
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Chambly-Borduas 13.0% 17.1% 13.2% 48.5% 8.1% 0.0%
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Chateauguay-Saint Constant 18.6% 13.9% 9.9% 49.5% 8.0% 0.0%
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Longueuil 14.4% 10.8% 14.0% 54.9% 5.2% 0.8%
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Saint Bruno-Saint Hubert 17.3% 14.1% 12.0% 50.2% 5.3% 1.1%
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Saint Hyacinthe-Bagot 12.0% 23.5% 6.5% 54.2% 3.8% 0.0%
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Saint Jean 15.6% 18.7% 9.9% 50.3% 5.6% 0.0%
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Saint Lambert 21.3% 13.9% 13.0% 45.2% 6.3% 0.3%
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Shefford 23.5% 18.5% 6.9% 44.2% 6.9% 0.0%
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Vaudreuil Soulanges 27.8% 17.3% 10.0% 36.9% 7.1% 0.9%
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Vercheres-Les Patriotes 12.4% 13.6% 10.8% 57.9% 4.3% 1.0%
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CANADIAN ELECTION 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS
CANADIAN ELECTION 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006
CANADIAN ELECTION PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006
Riding Prediction





Rest of Quebec LIBERAL CPC NDP Bloc Green Other Hold/Lose
Abitibi-Temiscamingue 14.0% 17.2% 5.6% 60.2% 3.0% 0.0%
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Beauce 12.4% 46.9% 4.5% 33.8% 2.5% 0.0%
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Beauport 9.7% 41.3% 5.7% 38.5% 3.6% 1.2%
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Berthier-Maskinoge 8.8% 29.8% 4.8% 53.7% 2.9% 0.0%
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Brome-Missisquoi 18.2% 32.6% 4.2% 39.6% 5.4% 0.0%
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Charlesbourg 9.4% 39.2% 4.7% 43.5% 2.6% 0.7%
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Charlevoix-Montmorency 7.7% 32.3% 3.5% 53.0% 3.5% 0.0%
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Chicoutimi-Le Fjord 21.3% 17.5% 6.7% 51.4% 3.1% 0.0%
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Compton-Stanstead 15.1% 30.1% 5.1% 45.5% 4.1% 0.0%
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Drummond 8.1% 41.1% 2.3% 46.3% 2.2% 0.0%
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Gaspesie-Iles de la Madeleine 14.6% 20.9% 3.4% 57.7% 3.4% 0.0%
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Gatineau 19.1% 23.6% 9.6% 42.4% 3.9% 1.4%
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Hull-Aylmer 18.0% 24.2% 18.8% 32.4% 6.3% 0.2%
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Joliette 9.6% 18.5% 5.6% 62.0% 2.8% 1.5%
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Jonquiere-Alma 13.2% 14.9% 5.7% 57.5% 1.9% 6.9%
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Laurentides-Labelle 13.1% 17.9% 4.4% 60.2% 4.5% 0.0%
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Levis-Bellechasse 9.6% 45.1% 4.9% 35.6% 4.6% 0.3%
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Lotbiniere-Chutes de la Chaudier 7.0% 53.5% 5.7% 30.5% 3.3% 0.0%
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Louis Hebert 13.2% 35.8% 8.0% 38.9% 4.1% 0.0%
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Louis Saint Laurent 6.4% 61.0% 3.2% 25.6% 2.2% 1.6%
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Manicouagan 10.6% 14.3% 16.1% 57.5% 1.6% 0.0%
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Matapedia-Matane 13.4% 18.7% 8.1% 57.5% 2.3% 0.0%
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Megantic-L'Erable 15.2% 32.3% 5.7% 42.9% 4.0% 0.0%
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Nunavik-Eeyou 21.4% 15.4% 7.2% 51.8% 4.2% 0.0%
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Pontiac 13.2% 52.0% 7.3% 23.2% 4.0% 0.3%
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Portneuf 9.2% 49.0% 4.4% 33.2% 4.1% 0.0%
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Quebec 10.5% 29.6% 8.0% 45.8% 4.6% 1.5%
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Richelieu 9.4% 21.8% 3.2% 62.4% 2.0% 1.2%
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Richmond-Arthabaska 10.9% 28.6% 4.8% 51.7% 4.0% 0.0%
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Rimouski-Temiscouata 9.5% 24.3% 10.3% 53.1% 2.9% 0.0%
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Riviere du Loup-Montmagny 12.5% 26.2% 3.1% 55.7% 2.5% 0.0%
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Riviere du Nord 9.3% 16.2% 4.6% 65.8% 3.0% 1.1%
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Roberval 9.3% 23.8% 7.6% 55.3% 4.0% 0.0%
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Saint Maurice-Champlain 13.9% 27.3% 3.9% 51.3% 2.3% 1.3%
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Sherbrooke 14.4% 13.6% 5.0% 63.1% 3.9% 0.0%
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Trois Rivieres 11.2% 26.4% 5.3% 53.5% 3.6% 0.0%
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SEAT PREDICTION 7 7 0 59 0 0
FEDERAL ELECTION 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS
FEDERAL ELECTION 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006
FEDERAL ELECTION PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006
ATLANTIC LIBERAL CPC NDP Bloc Green Other Hold/Lose
Riding Prediction





Newfoundland






Avalon 49.9% 34.8% 12.7% 0.0% 2.6% 0.0%
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Bonavista-Exploits 40.0% 47.9% 9.0% 0.0% 2.0% 1.1%
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Humber-St. Barbe-Baie Verte 54.3% 27.7% 15.4% 0.0% 2.6% 0.0%
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Labrador 56.9% 23.0% 13.7% 0.0% 4.6% 1.7%
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Random-Burin-St. George's 38.7% 20.9% 37.2% 0.0% 3.3% 0.0%
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St. John's North 29.2% 45.8% 21.3% 0.0% 3.8% 0.0%
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St. John's South 28.1% 43.8% 25.6% 0.0% 2.6% 0.0%
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CANADIAN ELECTION 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS
CANADIAN ELECTION 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006
CANADIAN ELECTION PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006
Riding Prediction





Prince Edward Island LIBERAL CPC NDP Bloc Green Other Hold/Lose
Cardigan 44.1% 38.5% 11.4% 0.0% 5.9% 0.0%
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Charlottetown 40.2% 31.4% 20.5% 0.0% 7.4% 0.6%
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Egmont 46.0% 33.8% 13.1% 0.0% 7.1% 0.0%
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Malpeque 42.1% 36.9% 11.2% 0.0% 9.9% 0.0%
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CANADIAN ELECTION 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS
CANADIAN ELECTION 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006
CANADIAN ELECTION PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006
Riding Prediction





Nova Scotia LIBERAL CPC NDP Bloc Green Other Hold/Lose
Cape Breton-Canso 44.5% 23.7% 27.8% 0.0% 4.0% 0.0%
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Central Nova 20.2% 46.4% 28.9% 0.0% 4.5% 0.0%
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Dartmouth-Cole Harbour 33.8% 23.7% 35.6% 0.0% 5.6% 1.2%
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Halifax 30.9% 16.2% 44.7% 0.0% 8.2% 0.0%
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Halifax West 38.6% 23.8% 31.0% 0.0% 6.5% 0.0%
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Kings-Hants 37.8% 34.2% 19.6% 0.0% 6.5% 2.0%
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North Nova 20.1% 53.6% 19.6% 0.0% 5.2% 1.5%
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Sackville-Eastern Shore 22.3% 23.2% 48.5% 0.0% 4.4% 1.6%
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South Shore-St. Margaret's 24.7% 40.9% 27.0% 0.0% 7.4% 0.0%
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Sydney-Victoria 43.5% 18.6% 31.6% 0.0% 4.3% 2.1%
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West Nova 34.2% 37.0% 23.1% 0.0% 5.7% 0.0%
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CANADIAN ELECTION 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS
CANADIAN ELECTION 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006
CANADIAN ELECTION PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006
Riding Prediction





New Brunswick LIBERAL CPC NDP Bloc Green Other Hold/Lose
Acadie-Bathurst 26.2% 12.0% 57.6% 0.0% 4.3% 0.0%
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Beausejour 44.5% 32.2% 16.4% 0.0% 6.9% 0.0%
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Fredericton 38.7% 37.9% 19.2% 0.0% 4.2% 0.0%
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Fundy 27.6% 48.8% 17.2% 0.0% 5.4% 1.0%
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Madawaska-Restigouche 36.5% 26.9% 30.1% 0.0% 6.6% 0.0%
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Miramichi 39.4% 32.6% 20.1% 0.0% 8.0% 0.0%
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Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe 46.2% 29.3% 15.2% 0.0% 9.2% 0.0%
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St. Croix-Belleisle 24.9% 57.4% 12.3% 0.0% 5.3% 0.0%
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Saint John 35.5% 37.8% 20.9% 0.0% 4.0% 1.8%
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Tobique-Mactaquac 39.6% 44.5% 9.3% 0.0% 6.6% 0.0%
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SEAT PREDICTION 17 11 4 0 0 0
FEDERAL ELECTION 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006
FEDERAL ELECTION 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006
FEDERAL ELECTION 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS 2006
FEDERAL ELECTION PREDICTIONS 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 PREDICTIONS
TERRITORIES LIBERAL CPC NDP Bloc Green Other Hold/Lose
Riding Prediction





Yukon 47.5% 21.6% 27.7% 0.0% 0.0% 3.2%
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Western Arctic 41.6% 17.3% 41.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Nunavut 49.7% 14.5% 15.9% 0.0% 4.3% 15.5%
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SEAT PREDICTION 3 0 0 0 0 0