Dangerous Thinking By Conservatives

There seems to be a consensus developing among Conservatives that they have almost a guaranteed year in office. Even more, there seems to be more and more saying that they can pass almost whatever they want in the first 100 days. There are two premises this is based upon. The first is that none of the opposition parties want an election, primarily because the public does not want an election. Although there is some truth to that, they should keep in mind that the public did not want the election we just had but still elected the Conservatives to government. The second premise is that with the Liberals heading into a leadership race they would not dare to bring down the Conservative government. And without the Liberals the Bloc and NDP are incapable of defeating the government. I would not put too much faith in that if I were the Conservatives. It is ironic that on both of these premises Joe Clark would be Harper's best advisor. Pierre Trudeau's resignation did not prevent the Liberals from defeating Clark's government. In our current situation, I do not believe it would be Paul Martin who would come back to fight. Instead, here is how I think things could develop. If the Conservatives brought in legislation that the Liberals thought they could win an election on they could defeat and bring down the government and then bring in someone like Frank McKenna to serve as leader and fight the election. There certainly are party rules, and I do not believe any of the rules allow for this. However, most people do not realize that the various political parties technically have no authority over their party's caucus in parliament. The leader of the Liberal party is the person the caucus recognizes - period. Originally, and for quite some time, it was the caucus that elected the leader. So if they appointed Frank McKenna he would be recognized by parliament as the Liberal leader. If he won the election he could then go through a leadership race, one in which I am sure he would be appointed. If he lost the election he could still go through a leadership race, but I am sure he would be challenged in such a case.

Do I think this will happen? Only if the Conservatives become arrogant enough to think they can act like they have a majority.

Beginning of the End for the Bloc

I would hope that since the Bloc fell short of expectations many Quebecers are rethinking the very existence of the Bloc. Let us presuppose for a moment that Quebec has concerns with federalism that are legitimate enough to justify separation. Why then do they elect separatists to Ottawa? Separatists have no desire to fix federalism. Quebecers have three main parties to choose from that cover most of the Canadian political spectrum: Liberals, Conservatives, NDP. They may find that none of those parties really reflect the views of Quebec. However, ask Albertans the same question. The policies of the Conservative party have been modified a great deal and in a direction that many Albertans would not agree with. But political parties in Canada must accomodate a wide range of views.

I fully recognize Quebecers right to vote for the Bloc. However, if the Bloc win a majority of seats next time then I will no longer take seriously Quebec's concerns with federalism because electing the Bloc demonstrates that they do not seriously want these concerns addressed.

How the Forecasters Stack Up

So here are the results and how various forecasts matched them. As you can see, The Truth Hurts did very well compared to other national forecasts. If you are aware of any other forecast sites I am more than prepared to add them to this comparison chart. If I find the time I will do the same comparisons at the subnational level.

I found through the election that my model's weakness, though it was not that bad, was with smaller parties. The final results reflect that as well as no other predictor had a lower error rate for the two largest parties combined and only The Truth Hurts predicted one of those two parties exactly. There is also some irony that the forecast with the absolutely worst results was from a professional polling firm. All of the others were reasonably close to one another.

	CANADA
	LIBERAL	CONSERVATIVE	BLOC	NDP	GREEN	OTHER
	103	124	51	29	0	1	Actual
TOTAL WRONG	99	124	60	25	0	0	The Truth Hurts
18	4	0	9	4	0	1	Difference
	104	118	56	29	0	1	Election Prediction
12	1	6	5	0	0	0	Difference
	94	128	56	29	0	1	Democratic Space
18	9	4	5	0	0	0	Difference
	64	150	58	36	0	0	IPSOS
80	39	26	7	7	0	1	Difference
	93	127	54	33	0	1	UBC
20	10	3	3	4	0	0	Difference

I should point out that I have adjusted my forecast for the NDP from 27 down to 25 because of a data entry error. That actually increases the error rate for The Truth Hurts in the chart above, but it better reflects the accuracy of the model because the error was caused by a data entry mistake not a mistake in the model (SES Research had the NDP at 12% in Montreal and I mistakenly entered that as 22%). But feel free to call this mistake differently than I have if you like.

Liberal Cabinet Death Watch

		Last Updated:		01/23/06		11:00:00 am
CABINET DEATH WATCH
Call Me In The Morning	As Safe As A Liberal Can Be This Election
Call The Doctor	At Risk
Call The Coroner	I Think You Get The Idea
Cabinet Member	LIBERAL	CPC	NDP	Bloc	Green	Other	Hold/Lose
Member/Portfolio/Riding	Prediction
Paul Martin
Prime Minister
LaSalle-Emard	36.2%	12.6%	13.4%	31.5%	4.9%	1.3%
Call The Doctor	▲▲▲						þ
Anne McLellan
Deputy Prime Minister
Edmonton Centre	34.4%	44.0%	12.8%	0.0%	6.3%	2.5%
Call The Coroner		▲▲▲					ý
Andy Mitchell
Agriculture & Agri-Food
Parry Sound-Muskoka	43.0%	32.8%	12.8%	0.0%	11.3%	0.0%
Call Me In The Morning	▲▲▲						þ
Joe McGuire
ACOA
Egmont	46.0%	33.8%	13.1%	0.0%	7.1%	0.0%
Call Me In The Morning	▲▲▲						þ
Liza Frulla
Canadian Heritage
Jeanne-Le Ber	23.0%	12.3%	18.6%	36.8%	8.0%	1.4%
Call The Coroner				▲▲▲			ý
Joe Volpe
Citizenship & Immigration
Eglinton-Lawrence	42.9%	32.8%	15.6%	0.0%	8.4%	0.2%
Call Me In The Morning	▲▲▲						þ
Jacques Saada
Canada Econ Dev-Que
Brossard-La Prairie	27.7%	14.1%	12.8%	39.8%	5.4%	0.2%
Call The Coroner				▲▲▲			ý
Stephan Dion
Environment
Saint Laurent-Cartierville	42.3%	15.5%	18.9%	17.5%	4.6%	1.1%
Call Me In The Morning	▲▲▲						þ
Ralph Goodale
Finance
Wascana	46.4%	30.2%	17.9%	0.0%	5.4%	0.0%
Call Me In The Morning	▲▲▲						þ
Geoff Regan
Fisheries & Oceans
Halifax West	38.6%	23.8%	31.0%	0.0%	6.5%	0.0%
Call Me In The Morning	▲▲▲						þ
Pierre Pettigrew
Foreign Affairs
Papineau	22.9%	10.5%	23.3%	35.6%	5.0%	2.6%
Call The Coroner				▲▲▲			ý
Ujjal Dosanjh
Health
Vancouver South	45.2%	29.2%	21.3%	0.0%	2.5%	1.8%
Call Me In The Morning	▲▲▲						þ
Belinda Stronach
HRSD
Newmarket-Aurora	49.1%	36.1%	6.9%	0.0%	5.8%	2.0%
Call Me In The Morning	▲▲▲						ý
Andy Scott
INAC
Fredericton	38.7%	37.9%	19.2%	0.0%	4.2%	0.0%
Call The Doctor	▲▲▲						þ
David Emerson
Industry
Vancouver Kingsway	42.4%	19.5%	33.3%	0.0%	2.6%	2.2%
Call Me In The Morning	▲▲▲						þ
Lucienne Robillard
Intergovernmental Affairs
Westmount-Ville-Marie	27.9%	19.9%	28.7%	11.9%	10.6%	1.0%
Call The Doctor			▲▲▲				ý
Aileen Carroll
International Cooperation
Barrie	42.2%	41.9%	7.4%	0.0%	8.5%	0.0%
Call The Doctor	▲▲▲						þ
Jim Peterson
International Trade
Willowdale	44.5%	30.8%	14.7%	0.0%	7.7%	2.3%
Call Me In The Morning	▲▲▲						þ
Irwin Cotler
Justice
Mount Royal	48.5%	21.9%	15.1%	7.2%	6.2%	1.1%
Call Me In The Morning	▲▲▲						þ
Joe Fontana
Labour & Housing
London North Centre	38.1%	31.5%	23.1%	0.0%	6.7%	0.6%
Call The Doctor	▲▲▲						þ
Tony Valeri
House Leader
Hamilton East-Stoney Creek	42.4%	24.6%	27.5%	0.0%	4.2%	1.2%
Call Me In The Morning	▲▲▲						þ
Jack Austin
Senate Leader
Senator
Bill Graham
National Defence
Toronto Centre	38.9%	18.4%	34.0%	0.0%	7.6%	1.0%
Call The Doctor	▲▲▲						þ
Mauril Belanger
National Defence (Ass.)
Ottawa-Vanier	46.4%	21.7%	23.4%	0.0%	7.3%	1.1%
Call Me In The Morning	▲▲▲						þ
John McCallum
National Revenue
Markham-Unionville	66.7%	23.9%	6.1%	0.0%	3.3%	0.0%
Call Me In The Morning	▲▲▲						þ
John Efford
Natural Resources
Avalon	49.9%	34.8%	12.7%	0.0%	2.6%	0.0%
Call Me In The Morning	▲▲▲						þ
Scott Brison
Public Works
Kings-Hants	37.8%	34.2%	19.6%	0.0%	6.5%	2.0%
Call The Doctor	▲▲▲						þ
Ken Dryden
Social Development
York Centre	38.4%	33.3%	20.0%	0.0%	6.3%	2.1%
Call The Doctor	▲▲▲						þ
Jean Lapierre
Transport
Outremont	20.2%	11.6%	33.2%	26.3%	7.4%	1.2%
Call The Doctor			▲▲▲				ý
Reg Alcock
Treasury Board
Winnipeg South	40.6%	40.9%	12.2%	0.0%	5.5%	0.8%
Call The Doctor		▲▲▲					ý
Albina Guarnieri
Veteran Affairs
Mississauga East-Cooksville	57.4%	27.9%	8.3%	0.0%	3.9%	2.6%
Call Me In The Morning	▲▲▲						þ
Stephen Owen
Western Diversification
Vancouver Quadra	52.7%	29.8%	12.9%	0.0%	3.9%	0.6%
Call Me In The Morning	▲▲▲						þ
Tony Ianno
Families & Caregivers
Trinity-Spadina	28.0%	10.2%	52.5%	0.0%	7.9%	1.4%
Call The Coroner			▲▲▲				ý
Claudette Bradshaw
Human Resources Dev.
Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe	46.2%	29.3%	15.2%	0.0%	9.2%	0.0%
Call Me In The Morning	▲▲▲						þ
John Godfrey
Infrastr. & Communities
Don Valley West	42.9%	37.3%	13.0%	0.0%	6.9%	0.0%
Call The Doctor	▲▲▲						þ
Raymond Chan
Multiculturalism
Richmond	44.1%	39.4%	12.7%	0.0%	2.9%	0.9%
Call The Doctor	▲▲▲						þ
Ethel Blondin-Andrew
Northern Development
Western Arctic	41.6%	17.3%	41.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Call The Doctor	▲▲▲						þ
Carolyn Bennett
Public Health
St. Paul's	40.6%	25.7%	22.8%	0.0%	10.9%	0.0%
Call Me In The Morning	▲▲▲						þ
CABINET DEATH WATCH					Lose:		8

Still On The Edge Of A Conservative Majority

NEW UPDATE THIS AFTERNOON

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
I have updated my seat forecaster and it is remarkably similar to the numbers today by the Strategic Counsel. I mentioned yesterday that the Strategic Counsel tracks overall impressions of the three leaders and that Stephen Harper's numbers in Ontario are better now than they have been throughout the campaign. Looking at those same numbers today his numbers are stable. That is also true for a leadership score that SES Research tracks. I said before that if Stephen Harper's leadership numbers in Ontario do not increase over the next few days expect Conservative support to come down a bit in Ontario. And that is exactly what has happened. Essentially, the negative advertising of the Liberal Party is having an effect. However, that does not mean that the Conservatives will not win Ontario. I am not ready to make that prediction, but my prediction that their numbers will come down has come true.

Now, his leadership numbers in Quebec have had a remarkable improvement. Believe it or not, according to the Strategic Counsel, Quebecer's have a more favourable opinion of Harper than any other region of Canada. His unfavourable numbers are also lower in Quebec than anywhere else. His numbers with SES Research went up nominally today over yesterday. I still believe this is the province to watch. I also still believe that, like the real-estate market in the U.S., this is a bubble that is going to burst. That is not based on any of the numbers, only my gut instincts.

Turner Size Liberal Caucus

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
*****
UPDATE: From today's Globe & Mail:
The projections, which are calculated by running this week's Strategic Counsel poll of more than 3,500 Canadians through a mathematical formula, are that the Tories will win 152 seats on Jan. 23, followed by 74 for the Liberals, 60 for the Bloc and 21 for the NDP. There are 308 seats in the House, so a party needs 155 to form a majority. "Is a majority possible? Absolutely. Is it probable? We don't know yet," said Allan Gregg, chairman of the Strategic Counsel.

These numbers are VERY consistent with The Truth Hurts Seat Forecaster, which adds validity to my model. But The Truth Hurts Seat Forecaster is updated daily, so check back.
*****

Wow! The Liberals are in freefall. The Conservatives have basically stayed the same in the latest seat forecaster (see link in left column) but the Liberals are heading towards one of their worst defeats in Canadian history if this keeps up. And if you recall, I said to keep an eye on Harper's "best PM" numbers in Ontario - that this number would be an indicator of things to come. He has essentially stayed the same. I had predicted if that holds for a few days then expect the Conservative numbers to come down slightly in Ontario. However, the Strategic Council tracks the overall impressions voters have of the leaders. Stephen Harper's lowest rating this election in Ontario was when it started. His net favourable rating in Ontario is now at its high point and his net unfavourable rating is at its low point. These numbers will be good at predicting what will happen to Conservative support in Ontario. Mark my words, these are the numbers to watch over the next few days if you want to predict what will happen a week from now. Also good news for the Conservatives is that their support in Quebec outside of Montreal has gone from 29% to 33%. I must say, the rise in Tory fortunes in Quebec this election is nothing short of historic. And the Strategic Council's overall impression numbers for Harper started lower in Quebec than Ontario and now his overall impression numbers have risen so that they are better in Quebec than Ontario - even though his numbers in Ontario are now high. I find myself at a loss! Whether you are red, blue or orange, one must admit that this rise is shocking. Now I may be eating my words in a few days, but I do not believe that will continue. I expect those numbers to drop. The one hope my Conservative readers can cling to is that in politics or real life it is impossible to stop a train that is barrelling down on you. All you can do is get out of the way. If this is a steam roller sweeping across Quebec then say hello to a Conservative majority government.

The other advantage the Conservatives have is that the Liberals are doing so bad the only way the Conservatives could drop is if they tried - and even then. Right now, though, the NDP are the largest benefactor of the Liberal fall. The Liberals are in serious trouble, and most of it seems to be tied to the performance of Paul Martin.

Conservative hopes of a majority are binned on Quebec. The question to Ontario regarding the Liberals is, "Would you like to Turner-size that?"

What I Think Will Happen

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
So yesterday I gave some good news for the Conservatives. Basically, it was that the decision of a whopping Conservative majority is in the hands of Quebecers. I will not rule out that possibility, but today's article will explain what I think will actually happen over the next week.

Anyone who has helped organize an election campaign knows that the least important number from a poll is who is "leading." Its the first number you will read and it is important, but it is usually not the most important. There are all sorts of other questions parties ask that are typically far more important. I do not have access to those in this election, but I was able to accurately predict the collapse of Liberal support based on the leadership indicators that SES Research tracks and the changes in voting patterns that my model picked up on. And for anyone who thinks it was the RCMP investigation that was the sole cause of the Conservative rise and Liberal fall they should go back and look at the polling data. If you look at SES you will see that Conservative support started to rise on December 22. They actually stall a bit as the RCMP investigation becomes public. But take a look at the "best PM" numbers for Ontario for December 22: Paul Martin, 27%; Stephen Harper, 26%. Now take a look at those same numbers for January 10: Paul Martin, 38%; Stephen Harper 26%. To be fair, leadership is one of the most important drivers of a party's vote but it is not the only variable. I believe that the Conservative platform has resonated with voters and at least as important is that voters are no longer scared of what the Conservatives might do - or at least many of them are not very scared. But there are some interesting things to point out about these leadership numbers. First, the fact that Harper has not improved tells me that it would be very difficult for the Conservatives to sweep Ontario. Their support has likely peaked. Second, it is almost inconceivable that the Conservatives could have such a rise in the polls, seem certain to form government, are within dreaming distance of a majority, and yet Harper's numbers are still where they were in mid-December. What is happening? To be frank, I do not know. But it is a very strong indication that the negative ads that the Liberals are currently running will work because it means Harper is still a weak spot in the Conservative armour. Do not keep an eye on the standings of the parties in Ontario in the next few SES polls; look at Harper's numbers. If Harper's numbers go down then no matter what happens to his party's standings I am certain that they will go down in Ontario over the next week. If they stay the same I suspect the Conservatives have levelled out in Ontario. If they go up, watch out. Having said that, my money is that Conservative support in Ontario is going to go down. My hunch is that those Liberal ads are going to work.

Now let us look at Atlantic Canada. On December 22 Martin's numbers were at 34% and Harper's were at 28%. By January 10 Martin was at 31% and Stephen Harper was at 25%. Basically, they have not budged. Jack Layton on the other hand has gone from 8 to 15%. It is the only region where his numbers have seen a significant increase. But I will get back to Layton and the NDP later. What is important is that I believe that the rise in the polls for the Conservatives in Atlantic Canada has been for different reasons than the rise in Ontario. I believe that part of the reason for the rise in Atlantic Canada is simply because Tory numbers have risen elsewhere. I do not want to discount the efforts of the Tories, but there are people who are now taking the party more seriously as it appears they are going to form government. People like going with winners. But that is not a solid foundation to build electoral support upon. So, the Liberal's negative ads in Atlantic Canada could be effective there as well - and I expect that they will. Even more important, if the Conservative's standing in the polls go down nationally I predict that the Atlantic numbers will follow shortly thereafter.

Now to Quebec. The whole "Mulroney Size Majority" article of yesterday was driven by Quebec's ability to make that happen. And they will continue to have that ability even if Conservative support falls in Ontario and Atlantic Canada. I will outline the Quebec numbers that would be the basis of venturing a prediction on what will happen in Quebec but I am also going to deviate from that right after I give those numbers. Martin's "best PM" numbers were at 30% in Quebec on December 22; he was at 16% on January 10. Clearly he is finished in Quebec - yesterday's man, so to speak. Stephen Harper, in contrast, was at 9% on December 22 and 26% on January 10. This is a stunning improvement! This is something Harper and the Conservatives can take great pride in. But this is where I go on my deviation. I do not believe it matters how stunning that is because I think the Conservatives have topped out in Quebec. As most of you may have guessed by now, I am not a political neophyte. My political instincts tell me that the negative ads - heck negative everything that Harper is being hit with by both the Bloc Quebecois and the Liberals - is going to stick. I think the Conservatives are likely to win seats in Quebec and on election day they should consider that a major victory. But I believe the Conservative numbers in Quebec will not be much higher than they are today. In fact, I am going to watch for signs over the next few days as to whether they will drop.

Now back to Jack Layton. I already pointed out in a previous article many days ago that the direction of NDP support in Ontario is almost 100% negatively correlated with Conservative support - when the Conservatives go up the NDP go down. It is hard to think of people moving from the NDP to the Conservatives but there actually are polling numbers during this election that show voters that move away from the NDP move equally to the Conservatives and Liberals. There is a protest vote in Ontario that is trying to make up their minds who best can deliver the message they want delivered to Martin and the Liberals. Many of the Ontario voters that will move away from the Conservatives over the next week will not want to go to the Liberals. Layton has done well this election and he will pick up many of those votes. His excellent leadership numbers in Atlantic Canada give him the same opportunity there as I expect he will have in Ontario.

So yesterday's article gives some hope to the Conservatives, and if Quebec says yes to a Conservative majority then it will happen - and it will be a big majority if that yes is strong enough. That possiblity is where we are at right now. Having said that, or blogged it as the case may be, it is not the direction I expect things will go over the next week. I think I will be prepared to make a prediction on this by the weekend.

Mulroney Size Majority

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
Stephen Harper could be heading for a "Mulroney size majority", as in 1984, the way the current polling numbers are going. Based on the seat forecaster (see link in left column), the Conservatives currently have a solid majority of seats everywhere west of Quebec. I had previously written that unless the Conservatives made a breakthrough in Quebec or Atlantic Canada in the next few days you could write off a majority. Well, the Conservative numbers now clearly have traction in Atlantic Canada. Although they are still behind the Liberals in seats, it is virtually a dead heat. Given the momentum they have, one can expect that they will move ahead of the Liberals shortly. But there are two important questions remaining.

The first question is Quebec. I have been saying that if there were a sea-change happening in Quebec the polling data would be different than what we have been seeing. However, the Strategic Council poll out today breaks out "the Rest of Quebec" from the province as a whole. Outside of Montreal the dynamics of the election are definitely changing, and I have had to modify the voting patterns of the forecast model as a result. It is obvious that the Conservatives have the potential to take the Bloc on head to head outside of Montreal. They still need to increase in support to do any serious damage. However, to put it in perspective, they are now polling in this area of Quebec just slightly less than the percentage of the vote they got in Ontario in the last election. So with only two weeks left they have a lot of ground to cover, but they certainly could cover enough to make some serious gains. I already have them at six seats and it now appears a definite possibility that they could win more seats in Quebec than the Liberals. I am not sure if the Liberals have ever finished in third place in Quebec since Confederation.

The second question relates to the negative ads of the Liberal Party. Do not discount these ads. As negative ads go these are very good. There are an unusual number of them, but that means it is not the message of any one ad that the Liberals are counting on but the theme of all the ads. And of course the theme is that Harper will change Canada in a way you do not want. Although I would rank these ads as very good they are also very late. Had they run these ads on January 2 I do not know who would have formed government, though I think a majority for either party would have been out of the question. The problems with running them now is not that there is not enough time, because there is still plenty of time, but: 1) The dynamics of the election have already changed, and there are only two times a party has successfully overcome that: 1988 and 2004; and, 2) Running them now runs the risk of making the Liberals look desperate - voters do find desperate appealing.

What is clear is that there is going to be a Conservative government. What will be determined over the next few days is whether it will be a majority government or not. The question to Quebec is, "Would you like to Mulroney-size that?"
(The photo in the upper left is from Time Magazine.)

Third Worst Liberal Result In 100 Years

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Blog
I have updated my forecasters again (I have also added a time stamp so you know when they have been last updated). If the current numbers hold until election day, this will be the third worst seat count for the Liberals in 100 years. Even Paul Martin is in for a tight race in his own riding. And Quebec is getting more and more interesting each day. I would bet my last dollar that the Bloc will win, but there is a race on for second. I would have to check my history books, but this election could mark the first time the Liberals finished in third place in Quebec. There is still a way to go for that to happen, though. Also, do not discount the power of the new Liberal ads. Having to pull one is going to hurt them a bit, but within three or four days the effects should be seen. Negative ads are always risky, and these are the most negative of the Liberal ads yet. However, when they are done properly they do work. My own estimation is that they might be in time to have a large effect in Altantic Canada. For the rest of the country, the Liberals should have been running these ads one week earlier. They have the potential to stop a Conservative majority, but I think a Liberal minority is all but out of the question now.

My Reflections On The French Debate

The Truth Hurts: Canadian Political Blog
Here are some of my reflections on the last of the leaders debates for this election.

Paul Martin:
St. Jean Baptiste himself could be the leader of the Liberal party and the Liberals still would not do well in Quebec this time. So Martin did very well in the debate, but so what?

Stephen Harper:
Harper did well in the debate, well enough that I think the Conservatives have an excellent chance at winning seats in Quebec. But I am really not sure what to say about this guy. He is boring by nature, but he has started to turn that to his advantage. He did have a couple of good jabs in the debate, but nothing approaching a knockout punch. His best answer was regarding the question on relations with the U.S. On a very minor point, Harper has said something in the debate that he has said many times before, "The only tax that everyone pays is the GST." Regardless of the price of milk, Aboriginals do not have to pay GST on it.

Gilles Duceppe:
I think he was on the right side of all the issues for Quebecers. I think he performed well enough that the Bloc Quebecois is still heading towards what is looking like their biggest victory yet. But I do not believe he won the debate. Also, I think he should bring a calculator to the next debate because all he seems to talk about is whether something will mean more money for Quebec or not. By the way, can you tell me again: Is Quebec different?

Jack Layton:
I think Layton was on the right side of all the issues for Quebecers as well. But this will not translate into a single seat for the NDP. By the way, what happened tonight to the Layton perma-smile?

If performance was the only measure I think this was the best debate of this election for all of the leaders. Here are some final reflections:

Dumbest Question of the Debate:
How could they ask the leaders if they would help someone close to them kill themselves? What type of question is that? I am surprised, however, that Martin did not find a way to work in a reference to his father.

Dumbest Answer of the Debate:
Harper, "I'm sorry. I wasn't expecting to have to answer." I still laugh about this.

Who Won:
Who cares? Sorry for the ambivalence, but nothing changed after that debate so it does not matter who won.